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If return rate hits 100% then it's a success IMO. Oregan has then successfully ensured that for every bottle used in their state that they also recycle one. Doe

by MRD85 8y ago

If return rate hits 100% then it's a success IMO. Oregan has then successfully ensured that for every bottle used in their state that they also recycle one. Does it matter if it's a non-Oregan bottle?

dragonwriter 8y ago
> Does it matter if it's a non-Oregan bottle? Insofar as part of the purpose is local waste stream diversion (because landfilling has costs), yes. It's true that the local cost is coupled with a remote benefit, but remote benefits have less value, ceteris paribus, to the people paying the costs.
- sandworm101 8y ago
  And having people drive bottles in from outside states, presumably burning fossil fuels in the process, kinda defeat much of the point behind recycling in the first place.
sokoloff 8y ago
Someone has to pay for the costs of the program (OBRC program costs are around $34M/yr per a slide deck I found and seem to currently be funded by slippage in return rate). If Oregon returns hit 100%, leaving no funds to pay for the program, the program isn't likely to continue without state taxpayer funding (currently, it's funded from the program itself and not the state's taxpayers).
- eesmith 8y ago
  The slide deck at https://www.obrc.com/Content/Reports/OBRC%20Quarterly%20Report%20Q3%202018.pdf https://www.obrc.com/Content/Reports/OBRC%20Quarterly%20Repo... says $34M/year, so agrees with you. As a theoretical point, even with a 100% return rate, it's still possible to make money on the float. Buy a 12-pack, deposit $1.20, return 1 week later, get $1.20 back, but in the meanwhile that buck-and-change could make ~1/50¢ in interest. The same report says they do about 2 billion containers / year, which at 10¢/container is $200M. In the optimistic case of 1 year between purchase and return, assuming 2% interest, that's $4M. Assuming 1 week, I think it's $100K, so not much. A more likely income source is the profit from selling relatively clean metal, glass, and PET. That report says 151.0 M Aluminum Cans per quarter. I see numbers around 2¢/can for the metal value, so that's $3M/quarter or call it $10M/year. So even with 100% return rate, there is still money coming in. Just (as you say) not enough to pay for the program. FWIW, https://www.obrc.com/Content/Reports/OBRC%20Annual%20Report%202017.PDF https://www.obrc.com/Content/Reports/OBRC%20Annual%20Report%... says that there was "$25 million" in "Estimated value of 2017 unredeemed deposits". That plus the Al can value is easily enough to pay for the program.
  - sokoloff 8y ago
    Great points that I hadn’t considered. Thanks!
Sohcahtoa82 8y ago
It's spelled "Oregon" btw.

by MRD85 8y ago

dragonwriter 8y ago

> Does it matter if it's a non-Oregan bottle? Insofar as part of the purpose is local waste stream diversion (because landfilling has costs), yes. It's true that the local cost is coupled with a remote benefit, but remote benefits have less value, ceteris paribus, to the people paying the costs.

sandworm101 8y ago
And having people drive bottles in from outside states, presumably burning fossil fuels in the process, kinda defeat much of the point behind recycling in the first place.

sokoloff 8y ago

Someone has to pay for the costs of the program (OBRC program costs are around $34M/yr per a slide deck I found and seem to currently be funded by slippage in return rate). If Oregon returns hit 100%, leaving no funds to pay for the program, the program isn't likely to continue without state taxpayer funding (currently, it's funded from the program itself and not the state's taxpayers).

eesmith 8y ago
The slide deck at https://www.obrc.com/Content/Reports/OBRC%20Quarterly%20Report%20Q3%202018.pdf https://www.obrc.com/Content/Reports/OBRC%20Quarterly%20Repo... says $34M/year, so agrees with you. As a theoretical point, even with a 100% return rate, it's still possible to make money on the float. Buy a 12-pack, deposit $1.20, return 1 week later, get $1.20 back, but in the meanwhile that buck-and-change could make ~1/50¢ in interest. The same report says they do about 2 billion containers / year, which at 10¢/container is $200M. In the optimistic case of 1 year between purchase and return, assuming 2% interest, that's $4M. Assuming 1 week, I think it's $100K, so not much. A more likely income source is the profit from selling relatively clean metal, glass, and PET. That report says 151.0 M Aluminum Cans per quarter. I see numbers around 2¢/can for the metal value, so that's $3M/quarter or call it $10M/year. So even with 100% return rate, there is still money coming in. Just (as you say) not enough to pay for the program. FWIW, https://www.obrc.com/Content/Reports/OBRC%20Annual%20Report%202017.PDF https://www.obrc.com/Content/Reports/OBRC%20Annual%20Report%... says that there was "$25 million" in "Estimated value of 2017 unredeemed deposits". That plus the Al can value is easily enough to pay for the program.
- sokoloff 8y ago
  Great points that I hadn’t considered. Thanks!

Sohcahtoa82 8y ago

It's spelled "Oregon" btw.