are you assuming the event to be inevitable? if so, you're really opening up a can of worms here, bc insurance doesn't really function with p(event) = 1.0 a be

are you assuming the event to be inevitable? if so, you're really opening up a can of worms here, bc insurance doesn't really function with p(event) = 1.0 a better argument would be something like: suppose we detect a gene that indicates probability 1.0 of disease that causes the person's left arm to fall off. it's then not a matter of "insurance" but a matter of "are we as the pool willing and able to pay for this?" recall company needs some profit as well as cost of coverage to maintain overhead so it's a different argument now.