4 ms·

There is a difference between the approval ratings of a lawfully elected leader, which include the opinions of folks who didn't even bothered to vote, and the m

by yholio 8y ago

There is a difference between the approval ratings of a lawfully elected leader, which include the opinions of folks who didn't even bothered to vote, and the minority support of a vile tyrant that in a free and fair election would have lost by a 2:1 - 3:1 margin. After fixing the last elections, Maduro has no greater legitimacy than the coup leader, who at least recognizes that and calls for new, fair elections.

omegaworks 8y ago
> in a free and fair election would have lost by a 2:1 - 3:1 margin Where are you getting that statistic from?
- yholio 8y ago
  Maduro and his party polled somewhere in the 20-30% range in all credible publications, and that was before the mass famine and food shortages of 2018: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Venezuelan_presidential_election#Public_opinion https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Venezuelan_presidential_e...
  - omegaworks 8y ago
    The very opinion polls you cite "include the opinions of folks who didn't even bothered to vote." The goalposts seem to shift to wherever best supports your position, which is still the recognition of an unelected leader. A belief that the US would support someone that intends to actually restore democracy and not just use that language to sell a coup, is naive and ahistorical[1]. Their sample sizes are also ridiculously low. Do you not recall how poorly the polls predicted the 2016 result?[2] 1. https://medium.com/@CitationsPodcst/episode-25-the-banality-of-cia-curated-definitions-of-democracy-aa183c697ccc https://medium.com/@CitationsPodcst/episode-25-the-banality-... 2. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
    - yholio 8y ago
      The analogy with the US fails unless you are claiming the Venezuelan election was fair. Sure, Maduro could have obtained a landslide victory against all odds, but he didn't, he eliminated his adversaries and rigged the results. Sure, the people who poll against him could have staid home, but they were actually forbidden to vote for their desired candidate or in some cases physically prevented to vote at all. I'm not saying that this isn't a coup, but the idea that Maduro is a legitimate and democratically elected ruler is purely fantastical. It's a coup against an autocrat - the only way to get rid of one. The size of his loyalist kernel is irrelevant here - just the fact that he can't, hasn't and won't win in a free election.
      - omegaworks 8y ago
        >The analogy with the US fails unless you are claiming the Venezuelan election was fair. Actually it does not. You're assuming that I claim the US election was also fair, legal and representative. >they were actually forbidden to vote for their desired candidate Votes are still cast on secret ballots, so I don't understand how that would even work. >It's a coup against an autocrat - the only way to get rid of one. Really? A US-instigated military coup is the only way? Historical[1] events[2] seem[3] to show otherwise. 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Declaration_of_Independence https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Declaration_of_I... 2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carnation_Revolution https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carnation_Revolution 3. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haitian_Revolution https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haitian_Revolution
        yholio 8y ago
        > Votes are still cast on secret ballots, so I don't understand how that would even work. It's quite easy: jail the respective candidates and remove them from the ballot. > Really? A US-instigated military coup is the only way? The position of the US government could be seen as an improvement from earlier calls for a direct military intervention. As long as they do not finance or advise the contenders, lending them international credibility is a standard foreign policy move that doesn't fall under "instigation". The political rift was there and the US should of course applaud any developments in line with their previous foreign policy position, strongly against the Chavez/Maduro regime. Of course, given the history of the US-Venezuela relations, it's hard to believe US will limit itself to mere diplomatic actions.

by yholio 8y ago

omegaworks 8y ago

> in a free and fair election would have lost by a 2:1 - 3:1 margin Where are you getting that statistic from?

yholio 8y ago
Maduro and his party polled somewhere in the 20-30% range in all credible publications, and that was before the mass famine and food shortages of 2018: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Venezuelan_presidential_election#Public_opinion https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Venezuelan_presidential_e...
- omegaworks 8y ago
  The very opinion polls you cite "include the opinions of folks who didn't even bothered to vote." The goalposts seem to shift to wherever best supports your position, which is still the recognition of an unelected leader. A belief that the US would support someone that intends to actually restore democracy and not just use that language to sell a coup, is naive and ahistorical[1]. Their sample sizes are also ridiculously low. Do you not recall how poorly the polls predicted the 2016 result?[2] 1. https://medium.com/@CitationsPodcst/episode-25-the-banality-of-cia-curated-definitions-of-democracy-aa183c697ccc https://medium.com/@CitationsPodcst/episode-25-the-banality-... 2. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
  - yholio 8y ago
    The analogy with the US fails unless you are claiming the Venezuelan election was fair. Sure, Maduro could have obtained a landslide victory against all odds, but he didn't, he eliminated his adversaries and rigged the results. Sure, the people who poll against him could have staid home, but they were actually forbidden to vote for their desired candidate or in some cases physically prevented to vote at all. I'm not saying that this isn't a coup, but the idea that Maduro is a legitimate and democratically elected ruler is purely fantastical. It's a coup against an autocrat - the only way to get rid of one. The size of his loyalist kernel is irrelevant here - just the fact that he can't, hasn't and won't win in a free election.
    - omegaworks 8y ago
      >The analogy with the US fails unless you are claiming the Venezuelan election was fair. Actually it does not. You're assuming that I claim the US election was also fair, legal and representative. >they were actually forbidden to vote for their desired candidate Votes are still cast on secret ballots, so I don't understand how that would even work. >It's a coup against an autocrat - the only way to get rid of one. Really? A US-instigated military coup is the only way? Historical[1] events[2] seem[3] to show otherwise. 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Declaration_of_Independence https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Declaration_of_I... 2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carnation_Revolution https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carnation_Revolution 3. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haitian_Revolution https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haitian_Revolution
      - yholio 8y ago
        > Votes are still cast on secret ballots, so I don't understand how that would even work. It's quite easy: jail the respective candidates and remove them from the ballot. > Really? A US-instigated military coup is the only way? The position of the US government could be seen as an improvement from earlier calls for a direct military intervention. As long as they do not finance or advise the contenders, lending them international credibility is a standard foreign policy move that doesn't fall under "instigation". The political rift was there and the US should of course applaud any developments in line with their previous foreign policy position, strongly against the Chavez/Maduro regime. Of course, given the history of the US-Venezuela relations, it's hard to believe US will limit itself to mere diplomatic actions.