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U.S. Recognizes Opposition Leader Guaido to Replace Venezuela's Maduro

47 points by rfinney 8y ago

drinkcrudeoil 8y ago
I wonder what Trump and greedy oil companies promised to him for getting the position. Maybe rights to oil fields weren't enough?
onetimemanytime 8y ago
and it so begins...might e the right" move for the people as these guys have failed miserably but...we know. Anyway, sometimes you have to bite the bullet, people will die from inaction as well (starving, disease, crime etc) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves_in_Venezuela https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves_in_Venezuela They apparently more oil any other country. Not as easy to access as or quality like Saudi Arabia but still, that's an amazing asset to work with.
- mmmmmmmmm 8y ago
  "
yholio 8y ago
Things are precipitating to either a civil war or a fall for Maduro and a return to democracy. Unlike the Chavez years, the regime has lost the support of the majority of the population, but nonetheless there is a strong loyalist kernel. Maybe a quarter to a third of the people still support Maduro, either because they profit directly from their position in the party cleptocracy he instituted or because they remember the "good" Chavez years of high oil revenues and generous social spending and fear that a regime switch has the potential to make things ever worse for them. It's essentially a class warfare in a highly divided society, that was political and is turning bloody. As always, authoritarians and populists very skillfully exploit such situations to get into power. The corollary is that it could happen anywhere similar conditions exist, like high inequality and dependence on mineral exports. Russia?
- omegaworks 8y ago
  Only 36% of US citizens support Trump[1] and yet we don't see calls for deposing him from abroad. We don't see sanctions freezing the assets of US-based multinational corporations because Trump has shut down the US government[2]. This is essentially a coup. Recognizing an unelected oligarch is a continuation of the US's policy of undemocratic meddling in latin american countries. 1. https://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/watch/trump-approval-falls-to-36-percent-in-new-poll-1430479939914 https://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/watch/trump-approval-falls... 2. https://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/14239 https://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/14239
  - yholio 8y ago
    There is a difference between the approval ratings of a lawfully elected leader, which include the opinions of folks who didn't even bothered to vote, and the minority support of a vile tyrant that in a free and fair election would have lost by a 2:1 - 3:1 margin. After fixing the last elections, Maduro has no greater legitimacy than the coup leader, who at least recognizes that and calls for new, fair elections.
    - omegaworks 8y ago
      > in a free and fair election would have lost by a 2:1 - 3:1 margin Where are you getting that statistic from?
      - yholio 8y ago
        Maduro and his party polled somewhere in the 20-30% range in all credible publications, and that was before the mass famine and food shortages of 2018: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Venezuelan_presidential_election#Public_opinion https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Venezuelan_presidential_e...
        omegaworks 8y ago
        The very opinion polls you cite "include the opinions of folks who didn't even bothered to vote." The goalposts seem to shift to wherever best supports your position, which is still the recognition of an unelected leader. A belief that the US would support someone that intends to actually restore democracy and not just use that language to sell a coup, is naive and ahistorical[1]. Their sample sizes are also ridiculously low. Do you not recall how poorly the polls predicted the 2016 result?[2] 1. https://medium.com/@CitationsPodcst/episode-25-the-banality-of-cia-curated-definitions-of-democracy-aa183c697ccc https://medium.com/@CitationsPodcst/episode-25-the-banality-... 2. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
stuaxo 8y ago
The US can't stop meddling in South America.
- nickelcitymario 8y ago
  It's not just the US. They weren't even the first. If I read the news reports accurately, Canada made the move first. Look, I know we all Trump. I'm with ya. But that doesn't mean that every single decision his government makes is the wrong call. "Even a broken clock is right twice a day", yada yada. By all accounts, Madura is an unelected tyrant responsible for the deaths of several protesters. I'm not there, so I can't say if these accounts are accurate. But there certainly seems to be an international consensus. I don't think this action has any similarity to, say, the US's support in the 80s of the Sandinistas, or their involvement in the brutal drug wars, etc.
  - nqr 8y ago
    I don't think it's got anything to do with Trump. Obama would've done the same. This is part of the US culture, just like waterboarding :P
  - omegaworks 8y ago
    > Canada made the move first. Canada has a sordid history when it comes to relations with its indigenous first nations peoples that continues to the present day[1]. One of the aims of the Bolivarian revolution was to center and uplift the indigenous population of Venezuela, so it makes sense that the Canadian government would be among the first to question its legitimacy. 1. https://medium.com/@CitationsPodcst/episode-36-maplewashing-whats-behind-canada-s-progressive-veneer-717d85a1f5ee https://medium.com/@CitationsPodcst/episode-36-maplewashing-...
andrenth 8y ago
Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Peru, Ecuador, Paraguay have all recognized Guaidó as president.

47 points by rfinney 8y ago

I wonder what Trump and greedy oil companies promised to him for getting the position. Maybe rights to oil fields weren't enough?

onetimemanytime 8y ago

and it so begins...might e the right" move for the people as these guys have failed miserably but...we know. Anyway, sometimes you have to bite the bullet, people will die from inaction as well (starving, disease, crime etc) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves_in_Venezuela https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves_in_Venezuela They apparently more oil any other country. Not as easy to access as or quality like Saudi Arabia but still, that's an amazing asset to work with.

mmmmmmmmm 8y ago
"

yholio 8y ago

Things are precipitating to either a civil war or a fall for Maduro and a return to democracy. Unlike the Chavez years, the regime has lost the support of the majority of the population, but nonetheless there is a strong loyalist kernel. Maybe a quarter to a third of the people still support Maduro, either because they profit directly from their position in the party cleptocracy he instituted or because they remember the "good" Chavez years of high oil revenues and generous social spending and fear that a regime switch has the potential to make things ever worse for them. It's essentially a class warfare in a highly divided society, that was political and is turning bloody. As always, authoritarians and populists very skillfully exploit such situations to get into power. The corollary is that it could happen anywhere similar conditions exist, like high inequality and dependence on mineral exports. Russia?

omegaworks 8y ago
Only 36% of US citizens support Trump[1] and yet we don't see calls for deposing him from abroad. We don't see sanctions freezing the assets of US-based multinational corporations because Trump has shut down the US government[2]. This is essentially a coup. Recognizing an unelected oligarch is a continuation of the US's policy of undemocratic meddling in latin american countries. 1. https://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/watch/trump-approval-falls-to-36-percent-in-new-poll-1430479939914 https://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/watch/trump-approval-falls... 2. https://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/14239 https://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/14239
- yholio 8y ago
  There is a difference between the approval ratings of a lawfully elected leader, which include the opinions of folks who didn't even bothered to vote, and the minority support of a vile tyrant that in a free and fair election would have lost by a 2:1 - 3:1 margin. After fixing the last elections, Maduro has no greater legitimacy than the coup leader, who at least recognizes that and calls for new, fair elections.
  - omegaworks 8y ago
    > in a free and fair election would have lost by a 2:1 - 3:1 margin Where are you getting that statistic from?
    - yholio 8y ago
      Maduro and his party polled somewhere in the 20-30% range in all credible publications, and that was before the mass famine and food shortages of 2018: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Venezuelan_presidential_election#Public_opinion https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Venezuelan_presidential_e...
      - omegaworks 8y ago
        The very opinion polls you cite "include the opinions of folks who didn't even bothered to vote." The goalposts seem to shift to wherever best supports your position, which is still the recognition of an unelected leader. A belief that the US would support someone that intends to actually restore democracy and not just use that language to sell a coup, is naive and ahistorical[1]. Their sample sizes are also ridiculously low. Do you not recall how poorly the polls predicted the 2016 result?[2] 1. https://medium.com/@CitationsPodcst/episode-25-the-banality-of-cia-curated-definitions-of-democracy-aa183c697ccc https://medium.com/@CitationsPodcst/episode-25-the-banality-... 2. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

stuaxo 8y ago

The US can't stop meddling in South America.

nickelcitymario 8y ago
It's not just the US. They weren't even the first. If I read the news reports accurately, Canada made the move first. Look, I know we all Trump. I'm with ya. But that doesn't mean that every single decision his government makes is the wrong call. "Even a broken clock is right twice a day", yada yada. By all accounts, Madura is an unelected tyrant responsible for the deaths of several protesters. I'm not there, so I can't say if these accounts are accurate. But there certainly seems to be an international consensus. I don't think this action has any similarity to, say, the US's support in the 80s of the Sandinistas, or their involvement in the brutal drug wars, etc.
- nqr 8y ago
  I don't think it's got anything to do with Trump. Obama would've done the same. This is part of the US culture, just like waterboarding :P
- omegaworks 8y ago
  > Canada made the move first. Canada has a sordid history when it comes to relations with its indigenous first nations peoples that continues to the present day[1]. One of the aims of the Bolivarian revolution was to center and uplift the indigenous population of Venezuela, so it makes sense that the Canadian government would be among the first to question its legitimacy. 1. https://medium.com/@CitationsPodcst/episode-36-maplewashing-whats-behind-canada-s-progressive-veneer-717d85a1f5ee https://medium.com/@CitationsPodcst/episode-36-maplewashing-...

andrenth 8y ago

Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Peru, Ecuador, Paraguay have all recognized Guaidó as president.