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So Fred admits he has been getting out sized returns investing in real companies that have revenue but is worried about other investors jumping in raising the v

So Fred admits he has been getting out sized returns investing in real companies that have revenue but is worried about other investors jumping in raising the valuation of companies and thus the salary of engineers. It sounds to me like the free market in action. His rates of return will decline as more investors jump in to the market. He does not give any reason why he thinks this current trend is unsustainable; are companies getting funded that have no chance of becoming profitable, stand-alone companies?

jnovek 16y ago
"other investors jumping in raising the valuation of companies and thus the salary of engineers" That was one of the symptoms of the dot-com bubble. "He does not give any reason why he thinks this current trend is unsustainable" Fred doesn't need to, because to him it's obvious: if people are making larger investments and thinking less about the investments they are making, they have a higher likelihood of throwing away money. If VCs invest poorly in their current fund, they will have trouble raising their next one and may even go out of business. Then there's less money in the ecosystem, fewer deals get done, fewer engineers can be employed, etc.
- asmithmd1 16y ago
  My point is that maybe a higher level of investment IS sustainable. I don't know what his IRR is but he says "enjoyed an amazing run" which I am guessing means something north of 25%. That rate of return will not stay that high as more investors jump in who are willing to accept a lower return. Hopefully we are coming up the "Slope of Enlightenment" this time: http://www.gartner.com/technology/research/methodologies/hype-cycle.jsp http://www.gartner.com/technology/research/methodologies/hyp...
  - jdp23 16y ago
    similar arguments have been made in previous bubbles. there's always been an element of truth in them -- as there is now -- but the reality always proves different than the hype. maybe this time will be different but it's a mistake to count on it.
  - fredwilson 16y ago
    something way north of 25% and i don't think it is sustainable

jnovek 16y ago

"other investors jumping in raising the valuation of companies and thus the salary of engineers" That was one of the symptoms of the dot-com bubble. "He does not give any reason why he thinks this current trend is unsustainable" Fred doesn't need to, because to him it's obvious: if people are making larger investments and thinking less about the investments they are making, they have a higher likelihood of throwing away money. If VCs invest poorly in their current fund, they will have trouble raising their next one and may even go out of business. Then there's less money in the ecosystem, fewer deals get done, fewer engineers can be employed, etc.

asmithmd1 16y ago
My point is that maybe a higher level of investment IS sustainable. I don't know what his IRR is but he says "enjoyed an amazing run" which I am guessing means something north of 25%. That rate of return will not stay that high as more investors jump in who are willing to accept a lower return. Hopefully we are coming up the "Slope of Enlightenment" this time: http://www.gartner.com/technology/research/methodologies/hype-cycle.jsp http://www.gartner.com/technology/research/methodologies/hyp...
- jdp23 16y ago
  similar arguments have been made in previous bubbles. there's always been an element of truth in them -- as there is now -- but the reality always proves different than the hype. maybe this time will be different but it's a mistake to count on it.
- fredwilson 16y ago
  something way north of 25% and i don't think it is sustainable