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The usual motivational stuff of "if [PersonX] did it, to can you" so prevalent in the business world also relies on the very same thing - hiding the role luck p

The usual motivational stuff of "if [PersonX] did it, to can you" so prevalent in the business world also relies on the very same thing - hiding the role luck plays in success. Sometimes this is accidental, and sometimes, as in the case of motivational "seminars", intentional. (Yeah, I have a bone to pick with that entire industry). The slightly more formal name for this phenomenon is this: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias, of which https://xkcd.com/1827/ https://xkcd.com/1827/ is a decent illustration. Pair it up with the law of large numbers, and, for fun, confirmation bias, and it takes a concerted effort to make sure that our minds aren't leading is astray when we try to evaluate risks, or even reason about what risks there are.

deleted 8y ago
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chosenbreed37 8y ago
> The usual motivational stuff of "if [PersonX] did it, to can you" so prevalent in the business world also relies on the very same thing - hiding the role luck plays in success Indeed. Although I think it is important to strive for some kind of balance. In my understanding the more extraordinary the result the greater the degree of luck involved. All the motivational talk and general review of the success of others is useful in terms of stirring us to positive action. On the balance of probabilities were are more likely to enjoy some degree of success by following in the footsteps of others. We may not be as successful as they were. E.g. if one studies, reads and follows the investment approach adopted by Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger, given time, one might expect some degree of success but it is unlikely to match theirs.
- maxxxxx 8y ago
  "All the motivational talk and general review of the success of others is useful in terms of stirring us to positive action. " Very true. I just wish they would leave out the guarantees that you will 100% succeed if you follow their advice.

deleted 8y ago

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chosenbreed37 8y ago

> The usual motivational stuff of "if [PersonX] did it, to can you" so prevalent in the business world also relies on the very same thing - hiding the role luck plays in success Indeed. Although I think it is important to strive for some kind of balance. In my understanding the more extraordinary the result the greater the degree of luck involved. All the motivational talk and general review of the success of others is useful in terms of stirring us to positive action. On the balance of probabilities were are more likely to enjoy some degree of success by following in the footsteps of others. We may not be as successful as they were. E.g. if one studies, reads and follows the investment approach adopted by Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger, given time, one might expect some degree of success but it is unlikely to match theirs.

maxxxxx 8y ago
"All the motivational talk and general review of the success of others is useful in terms of stirring us to positive action. " Very true. I just wish they would leave out the guarantees that you will 100% succeed if you follow their advice.