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> Do we possess a Bayesian brain that estimates probabilities in real time? You should read Daniel Kahneman's "Thinking Fast and Slow" - the answer is a resoun

> Do we possess a Bayesian brain that estimates probabilities in real time? You should read Daniel Kahneman's "Thinking Fast and Slow" - the answer is a resounding "No".

no_identd 8y ago
You might wish to read Gerd Gigerenzer as well as Keith E. Stanovich, Richard F. West & Maggie E. Toplak before citing Kahneman so quickly, and doubly so in support of such a tremendously strong claim as the one you just made. For Gigerenzer, you might wish to start out here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerd_Gigerenzer#Heuristics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerd_Gigerenzer#Heuristics https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14792779143000033 https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1479277914300003... (Available here: http://library.mpib-berlin.mpg.de/ft/gg/gg_how_1991.pdf http://library.mpib-berlin.mpg.de/ft/gg/gg_how_1991.pdf) And for Stanovich et al., you might want to start out here: http://cognet.mit.edu/book/rationality-quotient http://cognet.mit.edu/book/rationality-quotient https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dysrationalia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dysrationalia Stanovich et al. showed that Kahneman & Tversky's classical "System 1/System 2" dual process model as one too simplistic, outlining at least 3 systems involved: * The Autonomous Mind * The Reflective Mind * The Algorithmic Mind For points addressed by both Gigerenzer as well as Stanovich et al, see here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Rationality_Debate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Rationality_Debate None of this of course directly addresses your "Bayesian brain" point, however, for that, you might want to take a look at "some" articles by psychiatrist Scott Alexander, many of which speculative but citing a lot of sources you might wish to look into: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZiQqsgGX6a42Sfpii/the-apologist-and-the-revolutionary https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZiQqsgGX6a42Sfpii/the-apolog... https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/euJm4RwkAptZnP89i/bayes-for-schizophrenics-reasoning-in-delusional-disorders https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/euJm4RwkAptZnP89i/bayes-for-... https://slatestarcodex.com/2015/08/28/mysticism-and-pattern-matching/ https://slatestarcodex.com/2015/08/28/mysticism-and-pattern-... http://slatestarcodex.com/2016/09/12/its-bayes-all-the-way-up/ http://slatestarcodex.com/2016/09/12/its-bayes-all-the-way-u... http://slatestarcodex.com/2017/06/28/why-are-transgender-people-immune-to-optical-illusions/ http://slatestarcodex.com/2017/06/28/why-are-transgender-peo... http://slatestarcodex.com/2018/12/11/diametrical-model-of-autism-and-schizophrenia/ http://slatestarcodex.com/2018/12/11/diametrical-model-of-au... https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/01/10/paradigms-all-the-way-down/ https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/01/10/paradigms-all-the-way-... (And here, as a bonus, an article on dreaming, by Eliezer Yudkowsky: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8z2Fm2yaHpQz8rr5B/dreams-with-damaged-priors https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8z2Fm2yaHpQz8rr5B/dreams-wit...)

> Do we possess a Bayesian brain that estimates probabilities in real time? You should read Daniel Kahneman's "Thinking Fast and Slow" - the answer is a resounding "No".

no_identd 8y ago

You might wish to read Gerd Gigerenzer as well as Keith E. Stanovich, Richard F. West & Maggie E. Toplak before citing Kahneman so quickly, and doubly so in support of such a tremendously strong claim as the one you just made. For Gigerenzer, you might wish to start out here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerd_Gigerenzer#Heuristics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerd_Gigerenzer#Heuristics https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14792779143000033 https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1479277914300003... (Available here: http://library.mpib-berlin.mpg.de/ft/gg/gg_how_1991.pdf http://library.mpib-berlin.mpg.de/ft/gg/gg_how_1991.pdf) And for Stanovich et al., you might want to start out here: http://cognet.mit.edu/book/rationality-quotient http://cognet.mit.edu/book/rationality-quotient https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dysrationalia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dysrationalia Stanovich et al. showed that Kahneman & Tversky's classical "System 1/System 2" dual process model as one too simplistic, outlining at least 3 systems involved: * The Autonomous Mind * The Reflective Mind * The Algorithmic Mind For points addressed by both Gigerenzer as well as Stanovich et al, see here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Rationality_Debate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Rationality_Debate None of this of course directly addresses your "Bayesian brain" point, however, for that, you might want to take a look at "some" articles by psychiatrist Scott Alexander, many of which speculative but citing a lot of sources you might wish to look into: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZiQqsgGX6a42Sfpii/the-apologist-and-the-revolutionary https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZiQqsgGX6a42Sfpii/the-apolog... https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/euJm4RwkAptZnP89i/bayes-for-schizophrenics-reasoning-in-delusional-disorders https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/euJm4RwkAptZnP89i/bayes-for-... https://slatestarcodex.com/2015/08/28/mysticism-and-pattern-matching/ https://slatestarcodex.com/2015/08/28/mysticism-and-pattern-... http://slatestarcodex.com/2016/09/12/its-bayes-all-the-way-up/ http://slatestarcodex.com/2016/09/12/its-bayes-all-the-way-u... http://slatestarcodex.com/2017/06/28/why-are-transgender-people-immune-to-optical-illusions/ http://slatestarcodex.com/2017/06/28/why-are-transgender-peo... http://slatestarcodex.com/2018/12/11/diametrical-model-of-autism-and-schizophrenia/ http://slatestarcodex.com/2018/12/11/diametrical-model-of-au... https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/01/10/paradigms-all-the-way-down/ https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/01/10/paradigms-all-the-way-... (And here, as a bonus, an article on dreaming, by Eliezer Yudkowsky: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8z2Fm2yaHpQz8rr5B/dreams-with-damaged-priors https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8z2Fm2yaHpQz8rr5B/dreams-wit...)