5 ms·

If we are certain the sea levels are going to rise X amount over the next Y years, why aren't people buying up all the currently cheap but soon to be waterside

by yters 8y ago

If we are certain the sea levels are going to rise X amount over the next Y years, why aren't people buying up all the currently cheap but soon to be waterside property? If global warming is settled science I would have expected the money to be talking by now.

sudden 8y ago
Is anthropologic climate change real?
kuhhk 8y ago
I’ve tried to find that data, but it’s not entirely clear where the water lines will be... especially as this is XX years out and there may be dikes/dams built. The ROI for most investors is too far out for them to be interested right now. I was looking for my own retirement interests
marnett 8y ago
Markets move one quarter at a time. This has long since been established.
PakG1 8y ago
If you want to say it that way, then the corresponding question is why hasn't there been a huge sell-off of waterfront properties, especially since their current value is so high and their long-term value will probably only degrade in this scenario to nothing. A lot of people have incentive to find solutions to maintain the shoreline in some usable manner, or some facsimile thereof. Insurance companies are finding it super hard to figure out what the premiums should be for insuring this problem, and if they can't figure it out easily, how can buyers/sellers, especially in the short-term compared to long-term?
- zjaffee 8y ago
  Because the US government has a history of reclaiming the beach as erosion begins happening largely because the economic gain in doing so is higher than it's current cost. I'd expect this to continue far into the future.
- yters 8y ago
  I'm curious why insurance companies can't at least determine some lower limit. E.g. take the most conservative estimate out there and go up from there.
thatoneuser 8y ago
I wonder this a lot. I would have assumed some places would be highly susceptible and we’d hear about people losing their homes and property to coastal encroachment. I haven’t heard anything about it. Seems odd.
- scottlocklin 8y ago
  Seems odd if you never heard of the Gell Mann amnesia effect.
- kijin 8y ago
  Most sane people build at least a few feet above sea level, so there's a margin of safety at the current sea level. These houses will have to be rebuilt anyway by the time the sea level rises enough to be a problem and the retirees who currently occupy them have passed away. I suppose the next generation will simply build a few feet higher. Meanwhile, the government keeps pouring new sand onto beaches to make up for erosion. Waterfront properties in Florida do get flooded from time to time, but most people are content to blame more immediate causes such as poor drainage systems. We as a species are remarkably good at pretending that nothing is happening -- this quarter, this year, during my term in office, or within my lifetime.
izend 8y ago
Because with the most extreme prediction the sea will only rise 160cm by 2100 which is really only a bit of shoreline lost for the current property owners. It will take 1000 years of melting to meet the Hollywood style sea level rise.
- atoav 8y ago
  The earth has potential for over 100m of sea level rise, but it wont happen at an instant. but for many places 1 meter more with a huge wave a day could already become a problem
- hnick 8y ago
  Yes - such a slow rise can be managed in developed nations, along with some erosion. The major issue will be storm surges and other events.
  - kijin 8y ago
    Japan has been surrounding itself with huge concrete walls to fend off tsunamis. They're obviously unsightly, but I wouldn't be surprised if other developed countries eventually adopted the same solution to sea level rise. Humanity is pretty good at building walls around itself; it's not so good at enduring a bit of inconvenience right now to prevent disaster later. https://www.theguardian.com/world/gallery/2018/mar/09/after-the-tsunami-japan-sea-walls-in-pictures https://www.theguardian.com/world/gallery/2018/mar/09/after-...
    - flukus 8y ago
      How do they let water out? Most major cities are built on rivers/harbors, not letting them drain into or be connected to the ocean would cause a swathe of other problems. In many places the ground itself is quite porous (not sure on the statistics of how many major cities), so barriers like that can't work unless you build them down to the bedrock.
      - kijin 8y ago
flukus 8y ago
There are large error margins on localized effects and time frames. Sea levels will not rise equally everywhere and in many cases local weather like rainfall, sea temperatures and air pressure will have a larger effect. Then you've got how those changes effect the local land which may suffer from more or less erosion and could now be at risk of storm surges. You've got to get the timing right too, a property 4 meters above sea level might only be beach front for a decade before another meter of rise swallows it, to invest you'd have to assume someone would buy it at that point. There would likely be enough buildings and trees visible in the water to remind any potential buyer of their short sightedness. Not all waterside property is equal either. There won't be time for a beach to form on your waterfront, so it wont command the sort of values that many do today. Nearby structures out in the water would make for a poor boating and fishing experience and probably give a pretty gloomy ocean view. There is more than enough uncertainty to make it a poor investment, even if the science was 100% certain.
pulisse 8y ago
That's exactly what's happening in, e.g., Miami[1]: > A recent Harvard University study tracked the property values of more than 100,000 single-family homes across Miami going back to the early 1970s. It showed that values of homes along Miami's coastline have been dropping, while those at higher elevations are increasing. [1] https://www.dw.com/en/miamis-affluent-climate-refugees-seek-higher-ground/a-46602384 https://www.dw.com/en/miamis-affluent-climate-refugees-seek-...

by yters 8y ago

sudden 8y ago

Is anthropologic climate change real?

kuhhk 8y ago

I’ve tried to find that data, but it’s not entirely clear where the water lines will be... especially as this is XX years out and there may be dikes/dams built. The ROI for most investors is too far out for them to be interested right now. I was looking for my own retirement interests

marnett 8y ago

Markets move one quarter at a time. This has long since been established.

PakG1 8y ago

If you want to say it that way, then the corresponding question is why hasn't there been a huge sell-off of waterfront properties, especially since their current value is so high and their long-term value will probably only degrade in this scenario to nothing. A lot of people have incentive to find solutions to maintain the shoreline in some usable manner, or some facsimile thereof. Insurance companies are finding it super hard to figure out what the premiums should be for insuring this problem, and if they can't figure it out easily, how can buyers/sellers, especially in the short-term compared to long-term?

zjaffee 8y ago
Because the US government has a history of reclaiming the beach as erosion begins happening largely because the economic gain in doing so is higher than it's current cost. I'd expect this to continue far into the future.
yters 8y ago
I'm curious why insurance companies can't at least determine some lower limit. E.g. take the most conservative estimate out there and go up from there.

thatoneuser 8y ago

I wonder this a lot. I would have assumed some places would be highly susceptible and we’d hear about people losing their homes and property to coastal encroachment. I haven’t heard anything about it. Seems odd.

scottlocklin 8y ago
Seems odd if you never heard of the Gell Mann amnesia effect.
kijin 8y ago
Most sane people build at least a few feet above sea level, so there's a margin of safety at the current sea level. These houses will have to be rebuilt anyway by the time the sea level rises enough to be a problem and the retirees who currently occupy them have passed away. I suppose the next generation will simply build a few feet higher. Meanwhile, the government keeps pouring new sand onto beaches to make up for erosion. Waterfront properties in Florida do get flooded from time to time, but most people are content to blame more immediate causes such as poor drainage systems. We as a species are remarkably good at pretending that nothing is happening -- this quarter, this year, during my term in office, or within my lifetime.

izend 8y ago

Because with the most extreme prediction the sea will only rise 160cm by 2100 which is really only a bit of shoreline lost for the current property owners. It will take 1000 years of melting to meet the Hollywood style sea level rise.

atoav 8y ago
The earth has potential for over 100m of sea level rise, but it wont happen at an instant. but for many places 1 meter more with a huge wave a day could already become a problem
hnick 8y ago
Yes - such a slow rise can be managed in developed nations, along with some erosion. The major issue will be storm surges and other events.
- kijin 8y ago
  Japan has been surrounding itself with huge concrete walls to fend off tsunamis. They're obviously unsightly, but I wouldn't be surprised if other developed countries eventually adopted the same solution to sea level rise. Humanity is pretty good at building walls around itself; it's not so good at enduring a bit of inconvenience right now to prevent disaster later. https://www.theguardian.com/world/gallery/2018/mar/09/after-the-tsunami-japan-sea-walls-in-pictures https://www.theguardian.com/world/gallery/2018/mar/09/after-...
  - flukus 8y ago
    How do they let water out? Most major cities are built on rivers/harbors, not letting them drain into or be connected to the ocean would cause a swathe of other problems. In many places the ground itself is quite porous (not sure on the statistics of how many major cities), so barriers like that can't work unless you build them down to the bedrock.
    - kijin 8y ago

flukus 8y ago

There are large error margins on localized effects and time frames. Sea levels will not rise equally everywhere and in many cases local weather like rainfall, sea temperatures and air pressure will have a larger effect. Then you've got how those changes effect the local land which may suffer from more or less erosion and could now be at risk of storm surges. You've got to get the timing right too, a property 4 meters above sea level might only be beach front for a decade before another meter of rise swallows it, to invest you'd have to assume someone would buy it at that point. There would likely be enough buildings and trees visible in the water to remind any potential buyer of their short sightedness. Not all waterside property is equal either. There won't be time for a beach to form on your waterfront, so it wont command the sort of values that many do today. Nearby structures out in the water would make for a poor boating and fishing experience and probably give a pretty gloomy ocean view. There is more than enough uncertainty to make it a poor investment, even if the science was 100% certain.

pulisse 8y ago

That's exactly what's happening in, e.g., Miami[1]: > A recent Harvard University study tracked the property values of more than 100,000 single-family homes across Miami going back to the early 1970s. It showed that values of homes along Miami's coastline have been dropping, while those at higher elevations are increasing. [1] https://www.dw.com/en/miamis-affluent-climate-refugees-seek-higher-ground/a-46602384 https://www.dw.com/en/miamis-affluent-climate-refugees-seek-...