3 ms·

Respectfully, that's not the sort of color I was hoping for. Instead, consider evidence of derisking as exhibited by recent moves in HY OAS [0]. [0] https://fr

• azernik 8y ago
  Perhaps, but when it's industry-wide it's often a good leading indicator. My previous employer's only layoffs ever were in 2008, when one of their investors (I believe A16Z?) sat down the founders of their portfolio companies and told them to cut down, because the crunch was coming. These are companies whose management is in very close personal contact with the capital markets, and so often make decisions very quickly in response to what's going on there.
  • nickles 8y ago
    > Perhaps, but when it's industry-wide it's often a good leading indicator. As far as I'm aware, employment data is considered a lagging indicator [0], as labor tends to be reasonably sticky. > These are companies whose management is in very close personal contact with the capital markets, and so often make decisions very quickly in response to what's going on there. I was fishing for other data, in part, because current data does not support the assertion that layoffs have accelerated [1][2]. In fact, initial claims data appears to be at -- or close to -- historical lows. [0] https://www.thebalance.com/lagging-economic-indicators-list-index-and-top-3-3305860 https://www.thebalance.com/lagging-economic-indicators-list-... [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA [2] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IC4WSA https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IC4WSA