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Greenland’s Melting Ice Nears a ‘Tipping Point’
- gdubs 8y agoWhen I was a kid we took a field trip to the museum of natural history in New York City and watched the IMAX documentary “Antarctica”. It was a long time ago. What I remember the most was being in awe of the existence of this place where ice and snow existed in such enormous quantities, that it felt like a wilderness that stretched on forever. One of the side effects of getting older is that the world seems smaller. Particularly growing up in the past couple of decades, during the Information Age. But the idea that these vast, frozen parts of the planet may someday disappear — in my lifetime no less — that’s a hard one to process.
- jp555 8y agoDoes it also make you upset that it used to be a rainforest before the ice came and destroyed it all? I not trying to be sarcastic, just thinking about it.
- gdubs 8y agoHa — no, it doesn’t. Nor am I anxious about the sun eventually consuming the earth. But I’m admittedly sentimental of the ‘Goldilocks’ balance of ecosystems we evolved alongside: soft meadows, cool woodlands, gentle rains, etc. Edit: But, I suppose my original comment was more about a sentimentalism of the planet the way I imagined it as a child.
- devereaux 8y agoI want to see (and go) to tropical beaches in Canada and Antarctica!
- yters 8y agoIf we are certain the sea levels are going to rise X amount over the next Y years, why aren't people buying up all the currently cheap but soon to be waterside property? If global warming is settled science I would have expected the money to be talking by now.
- sudden 8y agoIs anthropologic climate change real?
- kuhhk 8y agoI’ve tried to find that data, but it’s not entirely clear where the water lines will be... especially as this is XX years out and there may be dikes/dams built. The ROI for most investors is too far out for them to be interested right now. I was looking for my own retirement interests
- marnett 8y agoMarkets move one quarter at a time. This has long since been established.
- PakG1 8y agoIf you want to say it that way, then the corresponding question is why hasn't there been a huge sell-off of waterfront properties, especially since their current value is so high and their long-term value will probably only degrade in this scenario to nothing. A lot of people have incentive to find solutions to maintain the shoreline in some usable manner, or some facsimile thereof. Insurance companies are finding it super hard to figure out what the premiums should be for insuring this problem, and if they can't figure it out easily, how can buyers/sellers, especially in the short-term compared to long-term?
- zjaffee 8y agoBecause the US government has a history of reclaiming the beach as erosion begins happening largely because the economic gain in doing so is higher than it's current cost. I'd expect this to continue far into the future.
- yters 8y agoI'm curious why insurance companies can't at least determine some lower limit. E.g. take the most conservative estimate out there and go up from there.
- thatoneuser 8y ago
- killaken2000 8y agoHopefully something will be done about the nuclear waste before the ice melts and exposes it.
- mirimir 8y agoSee https://climateandsecurity.org/2018/02/20/emerging-risks-melting-ice-reveals-an-old-nuclear-waste-site/ https://climateandsecurity.org/2018/02/20/emerging-risks-mel... I've tried to get the article by Jeff Colgan, but MIT Press won't let me. But I think that this is mainly toxic chemical waste. PCBs etc. Not nuclear waste, or at least not high-level waste.
- basicplus2 8y agoNational Geographic thinks its melting 4x as fast.. https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2019/01/greeland-ice-melting-four-times-faster-than-thought-raising-sea-level/ https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2019/01/greel...
- nod 8y agoSMDH at how they see fit to include, in the second-to-last paragraph, a scientist calling the words "tipping point" inaccurate and irresponsible... and then still made it their headline.
- nichos 8y agoI'm not a climate change denier, but the New York times has become a pretty trashy magazine. They're like the MSNBC of print.
- drb91 8y agoThis is a rare case where the title is underselling the drama of the article as we’ve likely already passed a tipping point.
- nod 8y agoAw... (Stopping by later and seeing this at the top) SMDH at myself, too, for giving in to the temptation to just blat out a quick frustration despite knowing this is exactly the kind of nerd-sniping that can get us commentariat more worked up than the actual issue. Sorry for the noise, folks. I mean, the meta isn't total noise, but remember to spend focus on the actual climate change too, shall we?
- deleted 8y ago[deleted]
- crispinb 8y agoIt's against HN guidelines to insinuate a commenter didn't read the article, but I'd at least suggest you read it again. She only pulls back from tipping point on the basis that political action could head it off. This is identical to saying that on a BAU basis, we are approaching a tipping point.
- guidelines 8y agoOh no! Not the guidelines!!!
- crispinb 8y agoIt seems towards the end like one of the paper's authors demurs: > “I take issue with using ‘tipping point’ to describe the accelerating mass loss Greenland is experiencing,” But then: > Dr. Trusel agreed that talk of tipping points could discount the humans’ ability to mitigate global warming. because “it makes it appear as if we have passed, or soon will pass, the point of no return.” She said she saw reasons for hope. And it becomes clear that the 'reasons for hope' are vague & wild misty-eyed theoretical dreams, against all of the prevailing trends and evidence, of global political change. Even scientists must believe in miracles, it seems.
- munk-a 8y agoSo, we as a society have a serious issue to deal with. Putting a deadline on the issue will push a portion of the population into the camp of "Let's wait and see if this is actually the case" when they are proved right we'd be unable to act, or, if luck was on our side, and some solution was still available then that portion of the population would disbelieve the urgency since one deadline had already passed. Setting a deadline provides no wins for enacting meaningful change.
- crispinb 8y agoI'm not sure what your 'deadline' refers to, but in any case the relevant deadline would be 'critically urgent'. We've had this 'serious issue' to deal with for 40 years or more. It is still technically feasible to do something, but the window of political possibility has clearly passed.
- munk-a 8y agoI was referring to the existence of a "Tipping Point" psychologically points of no return usually don't have the motivational effect we'd naively assume they do. Generally viewing something as a constantly increasing danger is more motivational. I am... hopelessly optimistic... but with that said I feel like climate change awareness has really increased since the last presidential election. My terrible optimism is fueling my hope that it'll play a more central role in our next round of policy pushing.
- crispinb 8y agoBy the way for anyone who hasn't come across it, https://climatefeedback.org https://climatefeedback.org is a valuable resource for assessing media reports of climate change studies. I've submitted this NYT story for review.
- sohkamyung 8y agoI'm waiting to see what Climate Feedback has to say about the article. Some people who deny climate change are already picking at the article, claiming it is alarmist.
- Proven 8y agoRead about these nonsense hoaxes here: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/01/15/taking-down-the-latest-washington-post-antarctic-scare-story-on-6x-increased-ice-melt/ https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/01/15/taking-down-the-lates...
- zw123456 8y agoThis is probably the wrong way to be thinking about this, admittedly, but... would investing in land in Greenland be pretty smart. Well, I suppose if you knew you would live to be 100. But still... https://www.quora.com/How-much-money-do-you-think-it-would-take-for-Denmark-to-sell-Greenland https://www.quora.com/How-much-money-do-you-think-it-would-t... $100M, Some billionaire (Musk, Bezos, Gat etc.) could buy it maybe. I some guy like Peter Theil waved $1B in Denmark's nose, just an interesting thought.
- coenhyde 8y agoBuy future farmland in Russia or Canada instead. If I was Russia I'd be doing everything I could to undermine climate change prevention. They have a lot to gain. On top of an increase in farmland, they'll also get access to currently inaccessible oil and gas. As a bonus their enemies will reap the negative impacts of climate change.
- crispinb 8y ago> If I was Russia I'd be doing everything I could to undermine climate change prevention Honestly? You would? You want to see vast amounts of suffering for your own gain? > They have a lot to gain. Well possibly if they want to live as survivalists. Perhaps some Russians do, but I've only known a couple of Muscovites who would barely know a potato from a turnip. The international order (such as it is) isn't remotely in the ballpark of being resilient enough to survive the convulsions climate change is going to cause.
- coenhyde 8y ago> Honestly? You would? You want to see vast amounts of suffering for your own gain? No. But I'm not a nation state who wants to reclaim its former glory as a world super power. Hence, "if I was Russia". I didn't say "if I was myself"... > Well possibly if they want to live as survivalists. Perhaps some Russians do, but I've only known a couple of Muscovites who would barely know a potato from a turnip. The international order (such as it is) isn't remotely in the ballpark of being resilient enough to survive the convulsions climate change is going to cause. They wont live as survivalists if they have the worlds most productive farmland. Anyway I doubt climate change is going to render the world inhabitable to humans or decimate the global economy. We'll adapt we always do. There'll just be winners and losers. Most will lose and there will be hardships. The natural ecosystems will be fucked but in the end we'll still be here doing just fine.
- Jedd 8y agoGreenland has about 7 metre potential sea level rise equivalent in ice sheets (which is mildly astonishing given the size of the island) and Antarctica has about 60 metres. But even a couple of metres spells disaster for most coastal cities, and the 600mm projected rise over the next 80 years increasingly looks to be unduly optimistic.
- quantum_magpie 8y agoPretty much all of the predictions that got released to public media are unduly optimistic. They are consistently the result of the most conservative models.
- WheelsAtLarge 8y agoI wonder if people understand that the temperature difference between frozen and unfrozen is very little. And that once that point is breached it's very hard to go back. Once the ice starts to melt then expect all of it to melt, eventually. We've reached the melting point and we need to get ready for the consequences.
- perl4ever 8y agoI'm not sure what you mean by "the temperature difference between frozen and unfrozen is very little". This sounds as though you are implying it is very easy to go from frozen to melted. When ice melts to water, it absorbs a fair amount of energy without changing temperature, is my recollection of high school physics.
- graeme 8y agoI think that mean that if daytime temperature in a place is 1 degree celsius, no ice will remain in the long run. This is true if there are no seasons, but of course more ice will form in the winter. But it's still worth thinking about over the long run. You don't need 30 degrees celsius to melt ice - 1 degree will do. It will just be slower.
- WheelsAtLarge 8y agoCorrect, that's my point.
- perl4ever 8y agoThis bothers me in the same way as when people say that a 20% gain in something doesn't get you back from a 20% loss. It's technically true, but it has a fallacious flavor to me because it's based on an incorrect choice of mental anchor. It's true that it doesn't take a significant change in temperature to melt ice, but temperature is not "what it takes" - it takes heat.
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- sAbakumoff 8y agoReading this article with this song in the background https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f6aPzCyJD7o https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f6aPzCyJD7o x10s the effect.