4 ms·
I think he does mean interest rates, which are not currently at the zero bound, as the fed has raised them several times lately. I think he probably should have
by jcriddle4 8y ago
I think he does mean interest rates, which are not currently at the zero bound, as the fed has raised them several times lately. I think he probably should have written "trapped too close to the zero bound" which would actually make more sense. For instance the last round of interest rate increase look like they caused the markets to get very sick. That puts pressure on the Fed not to do any more raises. However if the Fed does not raise rates and if some nasty down-turn happened at this point then would the fed accomplish much by dropping rates to zero? Another idea here being that if you muck around all the time with interest rates to solve problems the effectiveness of the medicine may wear off, particularly if this medicine has delayed people from making needed structural reform. By structural reform I mean rebuilding the middle class not cutting social security or crap like that. Let me put forward a very radical idea. I suspect we need to actually restrict the amount of debt that people can accumulate as it make the system as a whole incredibly brittle. Think of consumer debt like a sort of "tragedy of the commons" situation. An individuals debt load should be their own business but if just about everyone is loading up on debt then the overall economy could explode which is everyone's business. In addition if a creditor can resell bad debt to other unsuspecting buyers then they have an incentive to give toxic loans and credit cards to people as long as they aren't holding the large amount of toxic debt on their own books for very long.
- StuntPope 8y agoYes, sorry I meant interest rates. Maybe a poor choice of words. I wrote another article years ago positing that once you hit zero on interest rates, it's looking like you may never be able to normalize again (see Japan). We're at 2.4% (In the US) but that's still too low and the Fed is trapped. They can't go higher, they've paused and depending on what happens over the next while, they may very well have to cut. So I use the phrase trapped at the zero bound because once you actually touch that bound I think you get stuck there. That old post was: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-14/trapped-inside-zero-bound-crossing-economic-event-horizon https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-14/trapped-inside-zer...