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Is this not survivorship bias in the flesh? > Survivorship bias or survival bias is the logical error of concentrating on the people or things that made it pas
by perfmode 8y ago
Is this not survivorship bias in the flesh?
> Survivorship bias or survival bias is the logical error of concentrating on the people or things that made it past some selection process and overlooking those that did not, typically because of their lack of visibility. This can lead to false conclusions in several different ways. It is a form of selection bias.
- manfredo 8y agoNot exactly. Most societies have survived for the last several centuries, at least in a broad sense. If we compare the last century or so, especially the last century since the last conflict since the largest governments, the current economic system has proven to be one that can deliver consistent economic growth without necessitating inter-state violence. Most prior economic systems have failed to do both of these. Either they didn't have that much capacity for growth (e.g. once you're farming all the arable land, your agrarian kingdom isn't going to be producing much more land), or necessitated violent expansion (only way to get wealthier is to raid or annex somebody else's territory). Unless we have examples of societies experience consistent economic growth, without any substantial form of expansion of territory or use of state power, then this isn't survivorship bias. It's just a sober analysis of history.