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The Singularity is just millennialism [0] for secular technolgists. We still have a pretty paltry understanding of human intelligence. It seems unlikely to me t
by ForHackernews 8y ago
The Singularity is just millennialism [0] for secular technolgists. We still have a pretty paltry understanding of human intelligence. It seems unlikely to me that more and more iterations of AlphaGo will spontaneously produce strong general AI. My bet is no AGI within my lifetime.
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennialism https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennialism
- mirceal 8y agoit depends on how old you are, but I think you may be right that AGI still needs on the order of hundreds of years to happen.
- iheartpotatoes 8y agoAlpha zero is a generalized AlphaGo, so they are headed in the right direction! AlphaGo -> win this boardgame AlphaZero -> win any boardgame (well, three right now) AlphaMinus1 -> win any game AlphaMinus2 -> win anything AlphaMinus3 -> win winning. so much winning. But you get my drift, I'm extrapolating hugely off one abstraction step.
- ForHackernews 8y agoYeah maybe. How do you define "win" in terms of general intelligence? Outsmart all top human experts at their field?
- wetpaws 8y agoWhatever the reward function dictates would be a win :)
- ForHackernews 8y agoRight. So we've just successfully moved the goalposts to "write a reward function that objectively evaluates g"
- iheartpotatoes 8y agoImpossible to answer: who "won" politics? Democrats or republicans? Eventually we go from a black-and-white rules (hell, even Go is kind of a negotiation), to using economics as a tool to determine what option satisfies all parties. I don't think humans have solved that yet, but like radiology, perhaps AI can make better compromises?