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Do doctors have any training that would equip them to give a remotely accurate risk probability estimate?
by baddox 8y ago
Do doctors have any training that would equip them to give a remotely accurate risk probability estimate?
- arcticfox 8y agoIn my experience doctors are terrible at this, although it's supposed to be basically their entire job. I really think they should get more training in it, or some type of Bayes-esque tool to make what they're thinking explicit.
- XorNot 8y agoBut the reality is the patients don't understand the numbers, and in the OPs case a % risk doesn't mean much if it happens to you.
- Alex3917 8y ago> really think they should get more training in it, or some type of Bayes-esque tool They have those online. If you're in your 30s and have a reasonably healthy lifestyle and don't smoke, then your risk of dying from a cardiac event over a ten year period is likely somewhere between 0.25% and 0.5%, depending on how much you exercise and genetic factors. If anything, Bayesian logic is what leads doctors to ignore signs of heart attacks in young people in the first place.
- cm2012 8y agoMy wife's current psychiatrist is awesome at this - he quotes the scientific literature for relative risk levels when talking about medicine changes or interactions.