Another person could put forth ten more reasons in favor of a conservative approach. The reality is that no one actually knows which direction the market will

Another person could put forth ten more reasons in favor of a conservative approach. The reality is that no one actually knows which direction the market will go on any given day, even though it often goes up over time. Gut-based and heuristic-based predictions are dangerous. When making assumptions about why the market will rise, the most dangerous thing which can happen is for the market to rise for a different reason. You may then be tempted to go back to your gut reasoning to make another decision, which is equally baseless. But this time, you won’t just bet your investing money, you’ll bet your child’s education fund and your parents retirement and your second mortgage. After all, you are smarter, right? This concept is the plot of “How to Lose a Million Dollars” and I recommend it to all investors. Tl;dr: Maybe. You don’t know. Stop pretending like you do.