4 ms·

Is this the future of every society?

tathougies 8y ago
No. Religious societies that ascribe to traditional values will dominate, as they have in the past, and likely always will. Societies that subscribe to regressive norms will eventually die out, as we're seeing in Japan and Europe.
- vinay427 8y ago
  What do you mean by dying out? Can you provide an explanation and/or sources for societies in Europe that you believe are dying out?
  - deogeo 8y ago
    Probably referring to below-replacement birth-rates.
  - sunseb 8y ago
    People do less and less chilidren in the western world, and Africa's population to double to 2.4 billion by 2050. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/10305000/Africas-population-to-double-to-2.4-billion-by-2050.html https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianoc...
    - jeena 8y ago
      I don't think there is a single country which fertility rate went up since the 60ies, not even in Africa: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN
      - sunseb 8y ago
        https://www.passblue.com/2016/03/01/egypts-fertility-rate-turns-upward-but-why/ https://www.passblue.com/2016/03/01/egypts-fertility-rate-tu...
      - deogeo 8y ago
        And yet Africa's fertility rate is far above replacement levels, while those of China, Europe, and the US are below. I don't see how the change in fertility rate since the 60s is relevant.
      - tathougies 8y ago
        It's reasonable in light of modern agriculture and medicine for the fertility rate to go down, simply since fewer babies are dying, and thus breastfeeding longer. However, below replacement fertility rates are not sustainable for a society.
  - coldtea 8y ago
    "That the parent believes"? This has been a well known fact for decades: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/14/europedemographics/index.html http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/14/europedemographics/ind... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ageing_of_Europe https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ageing_of_Europe https://qz.com/1187819/country-ranking-worlds-fastest-shrinking-countries-are-in-eastern-europe/ https://qz.com/1187819/country-ranking-worlds-fastest-shrink... https://www.irishtimes.com/news/science/why-is-europe-losing-the-will-to-breed-1.2644169 https://www.irishtimes.com/news/science/why-is-europe-losing... https://www.theguardian.com/science/2017/jul/29/infertility-crisis-sperm-counts-halved https://www.theguardian.com/science/2017/jul/29/infertility-...
- jeena 8y ago
  How are European and Japanese societies regressive? And especially how are religious societies progressive? I think you got it exactly the wrong way around.
  - polskibus 8y ago
    In the sense of prolonging the species. If the social and economic norms discourage having children then it is regressive in terms of prolonging your (in this sense subscribing to European / Japanese norms) species.
    - jeena 8y ago
      That would only be true if having more individuals of a species with every generation would be a positive thing for that species. If we look at any other species, this seems not to be the case. There are limits to resources and often it makes sense much more sense to have less individuals so you don't overpopulate and destroy the resources which you need for that species to survive (over-fishing, predator-prey dynamics, etc.).
      - deogeo 8y ago
        Wouldn't such an approach require limiting immigration? A country won't consume fewer resources if it offsets its native low/negative population growth with immigration.
      - tathougies 8y ago
        Sure, but humans are not a school of fish. If one set of humans decides to die out. Another will step in.
        jeena 8y ago
        Humans are a species, I thought we were talking about all homo sapiens, not a specific group which right now just happens to live in a specific place.
- sunseb 8y ago
  I agree. Modern society will eventually die out if this world leads to something that alienates people so much that people don't socialize and reproduce anymore. "Life will find a way." (Jurassic Park) Speaking of movies, watch "Idiocracy": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-N9nVLXMhPc https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-N9nVLXMhPc
vinay427 8y ago
I'm curious where this question is coming from. If depending on the understanding that Japanese society is, in general, futuristic relative to other societies, I don't believe that's the case. Otherwise, I see no reason why this specific phenomenon might be in the cards for other societies, at least anecdotally speaking.
- ken 8y ago
  Is there reason to believe that the problem is specific to Japan? The video says it's also known to be happening in the US, UK, Italy, and South Korea. Those are 5 very different developed countries, on 3 different continents, and together make up nearly 10% of the earth's population.
- onetimemanytime 8y ago
  I think tech is causing it, at least in part. You can have everything without leaving home, people stay in their shell more and more until it's too late.
- coldtea 8y ago
  >Otherwise, I see no reason why this specific phenomenon might be in the cards for other societies, at least anecdotally speaking. Well, sub-replacement population rates, lower fertility, lower testosterone, more divorces, more unmarried people, and more lonely people ("loneliness epidemic"), are all phenomena that have made it to western societies (US and EU for starters). And the current sexual climate isn't exactly very hot and "anything goes" either -- 70s was probably "peak sex" as far as the west is concerned. It's more like a variant of Victorian era prudishness than the "sexual revolution". More like hipster versions of Alex Keaton than Steve and Elyse...
75dvtwin 8y ago
I think It is a future of every society that 'standardizes' on 40 hour, or more work week, and restricts legal immigration of competitively-skilled workforce. Perhaps, naïve, but the only way for Japan to solve these kinds of problems is these 2 steps a) work week as well as university workload must not be more than 25-30 hours standard per week. b) allow immigration for young, technology/STEM - educated workforce ( young, to mean, within biologically reproductive age).
- ummonk 8y ago
  Japan has standardized at way more than 40 hour work weeks. From what I've heard, 60-70 hours is the norm.

No. Religious societies that ascribe to traditional values will dominate, as they have in the past, and likely always will. Societies that subscribe to regressive norms will eventually die out, as we're seeing in Japan and Europe.

vinay427 8y ago
What do you mean by dying out? Can you provide an explanation and/or sources for societies in Europe that you believe are dying out?
- deogeo 8y ago
  Probably referring to below-replacement birth-rates.
- sunseb 8y ago
  People do less and less chilidren in the western world, and Africa's population to double to 2.4 billion by 2050. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/10305000/Africas-population-to-double-to-2.4-billion-by-2050.html https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianoc...
  - jeena 8y ago
    I don't think there is a single country which fertility rate went up since the 60ies, not even in Africa: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN
    - sunseb 8y ago
      https://www.passblue.com/2016/03/01/egypts-fertility-rate-turns-upward-but-why/ https://www.passblue.com/2016/03/01/egypts-fertility-rate-tu...
    - deogeo 8y ago
      And yet Africa's fertility rate is far above replacement levels, while those of China, Europe, and the US are below. I don't see how the change in fertility rate since the 60s is relevant.
    - tathougies 8y ago
      It's reasonable in light of modern agriculture and medicine for the fertility rate to go down, simply since fewer babies are dying, and thus breastfeeding longer. However, below replacement fertility rates are not sustainable for a society.
- coldtea 8y ago
  "That the parent believes"? This has been a well known fact for decades: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/14/europedemographics/index.html http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/14/europedemographics/ind... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ageing_of_Europe https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ageing_of_Europe https://qz.com/1187819/country-ranking-worlds-fastest-shrinking-countries-are-in-eastern-europe/ https://qz.com/1187819/country-ranking-worlds-fastest-shrink... https://www.irishtimes.com/news/science/why-is-europe-losing-the-will-to-breed-1.2644169 https://www.irishtimes.com/news/science/why-is-europe-losing... https://www.theguardian.com/science/2017/jul/29/infertility-crisis-sperm-counts-halved https://www.theguardian.com/science/2017/jul/29/infertility-...
jeena 8y ago
How are European and Japanese societies regressive? And especially how are religious societies progressive? I think you got it exactly the wrong way around.
- polskibus 8y ago
  In the sense of prolonging the species. If the social and economic norms discourage having children then it is regressive in terms of prolonging your (in this sense subscribing to European / Japanese norms) species.
  - jeena 8y ago
    That would only be true if having more individuals of a species with every generation would be a positive thing for that species. If we look at any other species, this seems not to be the case. There are limits to resources and often it makes sense much more sense to have less individuals so you don't overpopulate and destroy the resources which you need for that species to survive (over-fishing, predator-prey dynamics, etc.).
    - deogeo 8y ago
      Wouldn't such an approach require limiting immigration? A country won't consume fewer resources if it offsets its native low/negative population growth with immigration.
    - tathougies 8y ago
      Sure, but humans are not a school of fish. If one set of humans decides to die out. Another will step in.
      - jeena 8y ago
        Humans are a species, I thought we were talking about all homo sapiens, not a specific group which right now just happens to live in a specific place.
sunseb 8y ago
I agree. Modern society will eventually die out if this world leads to something that alienates people so much that people don't socialize and reproduce anymore. "Life will find a way." (Jurassic Park) Speaking of movies, watch "Idiocracy": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-N9nVLXMhPc https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-N9nVLXMhPc

vinay427 8y ago

I'm curious where this question is coming from. If depending on the understanding that Japanese society is, in general, futuristic relative to other societies, I don't believe that's the case. Otherwise, I see no reason why this specific phenomenon might be in the cards for other societies, at least anecdotally speaking.

ken 8y ago
Is there reason to believe that the problem is specific to Japan? The video says it's also known to be happening in the US, UK, Italy, and South Korea. Those are 5 very different developed countries, on 3 different continents, and together make up nearly 10% of the earth's population.
onetimemanytime 8y ago
I think tech is causing it, at least in part. You can have everything without leaving home, people stay in their shell more and more until it's too late.
coldtea 8y ago
>Otherwise, I see no reason why this specific phenomenon might be in the cards for other societies, at least anecdotally speaking. Well, sub-replacement population rates, lower fertility, lower testosterone, more divorces, more unmarried people, and more lonely people ("loneliness epidemic"), are all phenomena that have made it to western societies (US and EU for starters). And the current sexual climate isn't exactly very hot and "anything goes" either -- 70s was probably "peak sex" as far as the west is concerned. It's more like a variant of Victorian era prudishness than the "sexual revolution". More like hipster versions of Alex Keaton than Steve and Elyse...

75dvtwin 8y ago

I think It is a future of every society that 'standardizes' on 40 hour, or more work week, and restricts legal immigration of competitively-skilled workforce. Perhaps, naïve, but the only way for Japan to solve these kinds of problems is these 2 steps a) work week as well as university workload must not be more than 25-30 hours standard per week. b) allow immigration for young, technology/STEM - educated workforce ( young, to mean, within biologically reproductive age).

ummonk 8y ago
Japan has standardized at way more than 40 hour work weeks. From what I've heard, 60-70 hours is the norm.