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>I thought it was pretty well known that these services are estimates only to a large degree? These services only take samples, they don't sequence the entire g

>I thought it was pretty well known that these services are estimates only to a large degree? These services only take samples, they don't sequence the entire genome. Of course there will be errors when you have to extrapolate from a sample. The credit given to the intelligence of society at large here falls somewhere between "cute" and "astounding". I would recommend flipping through a tabloid and then considering such content sells millions of copies each print. And then reconsidering your thought that it's "pretty well known that these services are estimates only to a large degree".

Waterluvian 8y ago
I thought it was pretty well known that many tabloid readers read them the way one reads The Onion. Sorry I couldn't help myself. :)
cowpig 8y ago
Someone buying a tabloid doesn't necessitate that they believe what they're reading. You could easily make the point that many people won't understand something without coming across as judgmental and elitist, but failed to do so.
- oarabbus_ 8y ago
  I disagree. He didn't ask that "don't most people know you need to fill up your car with gas once the tank gets low?" He made it seem like the fact that there is a high degree of uncertainty/estimation in genetic testing is common knowledge. We're talking about a society where half the members do not believe in anthropogenic climate change (note that I do not state the _degree_ of the change) and sizeable numbers of people (millions) don't believe in vaccination. He said "Of course there will be errors when you have to extrapolate from a sample." The common man doesn't know what extrapolate from a sample even means! I'm sorry but suggesting society as a whole understands genetic testing methods and techniques is just so far absolutely removed from reality (you're perhaps justified if you work for Illumina or are a faculty member of a University) that the point needed to be made even if harshly. Maybe I just interact more with "non hacker news" types than the average poster here, but that post quite frankly seemed so absurdly out of touch as to remind me of the Lucille Bluth quote from Arrested Development - "I mean, it's one banana Michael. How much could it possibly cost? 10 dollars?"
ben509 8y ago
Your post provides a great data point supporting your thesis, but the real problem with the intelligence of society is rational ignorance. People don't expend a great deal of resources trying to understand things that don't matter to them. For example, you're happy to fire off about how dumb everyone is for reading tabloids because the finer points of how people unlike you consume media are not particularly important. And, likewise, the typical person buying a DNA test as largely a conversation starter isn't going to invest a great deal of effort to understand how DNA tests work.
- Pharmakon 8y ago
  Your post provides a great data point supporting your thesis, but the real problem with the intelligence of society is rational ignorance. People don't expend a great deal of resources trying to understand things that don't matter to them. Tragically people are notoriously bad at long term predictions of what will matter to them and how that relates to a broad corpus of knowledge or habit of skepticism. The result is that people are so ignorant they’re under an illusion of being knowledgeable, and at that point they’re more or less a lost cause. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning–Kruger_effect https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning–Kruger_effect It might help to know enough about DNA to wish to avoid these services, especially given how they cooperate with law enforcement. Mostly though, it’s just really hard to calibrate your corpus of useful knowledge from a position of profound ignorance. Plus a lot of people really are quite stupid, and ignoring that in favor of some superficially positive message about mutual respect is potentially dangerous.

Waterluvian 8y ago

I thought it was pretty well known that many tabloid readers read them the way one reads The Onion. Sorry I couldn't help myself. :)

cowpig 8y ago

Someone buying a tabloid doesn't necessitate that they believe what they're reading. You could easily make the point that many people won't understand something without coming across as judgmental and elitist, but failed to do so.

oarabbus_ 8y ago
I disagree. He didn't ask that "don't most people know you need to fill up your car with gas once the tank gets low?" He made it seem like the fact that there is a high degree of uncertainty/estimation in genetic testing is common knowledge. We're talking about a society where half the members do not believe in anthropogenic climate change (note that I do not state the _degree_ of the change) and sizeable numbers of people (millions) don't believe in vaccination. He said "Of course there will be errors when you have to extrapolate from a sample." The common man doesn't know what extrapolate from a sample even means! I'm sorry but suggesting society as a whole understands genetic testing methods and techniques is just so far absolutely removed from reality (you're perhaps justified if you work for Illumina or are a faculty member of a University) that the point needed to be made even if harshly. Maybe I just interact more with "non hacker news" types than the average poster here, but that post quite frankly seemed so absurdly out of touch as to remind me of the Lucille Bluth quote from Arrested Development - "I mean, it's one banana Michael. How much could it possibly cost? 10 dollars?"

ben509 8y ago

Your post provides a great data point supporting your thesis, but the real problem with the intelligence of society is rational ignorance. People don't expend a great deal of resources trying to understand things that don't matter to them. For example, you're happy to fire off about how dumb everyone is for reading tabloids because the finer points of how people unlike you consume media are not particularly important. And, likewise, the typical person buying a DNA test as largely a conversation starter isn't going to invest a great deal of effort to understand how DNA tests work.

Pharmakon 8y ago
Your post provides a great data point supporting your thesis, but the real problem with the intelligence of society is rational ignorance. People don't expend a great deal of resources trying to understand things that don't matter to them. Tragically people are notoriously bad at long term predictions of what will matter to them and how that relates to a broad corpus of knowledge or habit of skepticism. The result is that people are so ignorant they’re under an illusion of being knowledgeable, and at that point they’re more or less a lost cause. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning–Kruger_effect https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning–Kruger_effect It might help to know enough about DNA to wish to avoid these services, especially given how they cooperate with law enforcement. Mostly though, it’s just really hard to calibrate your corpus of useful knowledge from a position of profound ignorance. Plus a lot of people really are quite stupid, and ignoring that in favor of some superficially positive message about mutual respect is potentially dangerous.