3 ms·

Internet ordering isn't where the real value is, it's in a logistics network from warehouse to consumer that is almost entirely automated.

rsynnott 8y ago
On the warehouse side, the incumbents are doing that. Funnily enough, I was at Amazon's AWS Summit in London a while back, and one of the presenters was a guy who'd worked on some European supermarket's automated warehouse fulfilment stuff, using AWS. Automating delivery to consumer (ie self-driving vehicles) is a long, long way off, and Amazon isn't a particular leader in the field anyway. If it's ever workable, Tesco et al will just license it from Waymo or someone. As will Amazon, probably. And I think the ordering side is more important than you think. Doing a weekly shop with Amazon's awful website would be a miserable process; Tesco et al are already far ahead, there. I'm sure Amazon can catch up, but the idea that it has first mover advantage (except maybe in the US) is ridiculous. The big supermarkets also already have an extensive pre-existing warehouse system.
- Kephael 8y ago
  I doubt they'll be able to compete on costs, on the retail front Amazon Go style stores are certainly the future. Legacy retailers (and grocers) are simply too labor heavy and their large retail footprint will come back to bite them. Even if last mile delivery has a driver, operational costs will be far lower.
  - rsynnott 8y ago
    My local Tesco (I apologise for all the Tesco references; they seem to have totally taken over my area of Dublin) is a small urban supermarket with eight automated checkouts, and typically one employee on a manual checkout for people who want to buy alcohol and cigarettes, or who refuse to deal with the machines. At peak times maybe two or three employees, but one is normal. Big suburban supermarkets have a bunch of automatic checkouts, plus scanners for shoppers to take with them and self-checkout as they put their purchases in the trolley. Amazon Go type shops may be _slightly_ more labour efficient (if they work) but there's no reason the big chains can't just do that, too. Weirdly, when I was in San Francisco recently, I went to a Whole Foods (an Amazon owned supermarket). It didn't have automated checkouts at all! I'm unconvinced that Amazon is actually a leader in automated supermarkets. RE the large real estate footprint, that's usually leased (at least here). As demand for physical supermarkets drops, they can just stop renewing leases.
  - Kephael 8y ago
    I've found checking out even with automated checkout to be a slow and a poor user experience. Kroger stores in Seattle illustrate this very well, waiting in line for 8 minutes just to pay isn't fun. Removing everything from the cart, scanning it, and putting it back is silly. I really can't imagine younger people going to physical grocery stores in the future. Walmart owns the majority of its store locations.
- rusk 8y ago
  > On the warehouse side, the incumbents are doing that. Near to me, in North Dublin (Nice and close to the Airport; good access to Dublin Port), Tesco have their distribution centre. It's massive. Clearly visible from just about anywhere [0] If I recall correctly, Wallmart in the USA were doing this back in the 90s ... [0] https://goo.gl/maps/NLcLneN5Bi92 https://goo.gl/maps/NLcLneN5Bi92
- cmsj 8y ago
  Amazon does grocery delivery in the UK and you're right, the experience is not on-par with the incumbents in this relatively mature online grocery ordering market.
freeflight 8y ago
Tho, all of that is optimized for non-perishable goods. Food logistics is an entirely different ball-game compared to just shipping boxes full of entertainment electronics and plastic toys. With food, you suddenly have to be mindful about things like the handling of the produce, storage conditions, uninterrupted cooling chains, health standards, best-before dates of products and a whole lot of other factors/regulations that don't apply to the current bulk of products sold by Amazon.

rsynnott 8y ago

On the warehouse side, the incumbents are doing that. Funnily enough, I was at Amazon's AWS Summit in London a while back, and one of the presenters was a guy who'd worked on some European supermarket's automated warehouse fulfilment stuff, using AWS. Automating delivery to consumer (ie self-driving vehicles) is a long, long way off, and Amazon isn't a particular leader in the field anyway. If it's ever workable, Tesco et al will just license it from Waymo or someone. As will Amazon, probably. And I think the ordering side is more important than you think. Doing a weekly shop with Amazon's awful website would be a miserable process; Tesco et al are already far ahead, there. I'm sure Amazon can catch up, but the idea that it has first mover advantage (except maybe in the US) is ridiculous. The big supermarkets also already have an extensive pre-existing warehouse system.

Kephael 8y ago
I doubt they'll be able to compete on costs, on the retail front Amazon Go style stores are certainly the future. Legacy retailers (and grocers) are simply too labor heavy and their large retail footprint will come back to bite them. Even if last mile delivery has a driver, operational costs will be far lower.
- rsynnott 8y ago
  My local Tesco (I apologise for all the Tesco references; they seem to have totally taken over my area of Dublin) is a small urban supermarket with eight automated checkouts, and typically one employee on a manual checkout for people who want to buy alcohol and cigarettes, or who refuse to deal with the machines. At peak times maybe two or three employees, but one is normal. Big suburban supermarkets have a bunch of automatic checkouts, plus scanners for shoppers to take with them and self-checkout as they put their purchases in the trolley. Amazon Go type shops may be _slightly_ more labour efficient (if they work) but there's no reason the big chains can't just do that, too. Weirdly, when I was in San Francisco recently, I went to a Whole Foods (an Amazon owned supermarket). It didn't have automated checkouts at all! I'm unconvinced that Amazon is actually a leader in automated supermarkets. RE the large real estate footprint, that's usually leased (at least here). As demand for physical supermarkets drops, they can just stop renewing leases.
- Kephael 8y ago
  I've found checking out even with automated checkout to be a slow and a poor user experience. Kroger stores in Seattle illustrate this very well, waiting in line for 8 minutes just to pay isn't fun. Removing everything from the cart, scanning it, and putting it back is silly. I really can't imagine younger people going to physical grocery stores in the future. Walmart owns the majority of its store locations.
rusk 8y ago
> On the warehouse side, the incumbents are doing that. Near to me, in North Dublin (Nice and close to the Airport; good access to Dublin Port), Tesco have their distribution centre. It's massive. Clearly visible from just about anywhere [0] If I recall correctly, Wallmart in the USA were doing this back in the 90s ... [0] https://goo.gl/maps/NLcLneN5Bi92 https://goo.gl/maps/NLcLneN5Bi92
cmsj 8y ago
Amazon does grocery delivery in the UK and you're right, the experience is not on-par with the incumbents in this relatively mature online grocery ordering market.

freeflight 8y ago

Tho, all of that is optimized for non-perishable goods. Food logistics is an entirely different ball-game compared to just shipping boxes full of entertainment electronics and plastic toys. With food, you suddenly have to be mindful about things like the handling of the produce, storage conditions, uninterrupted cooling chains, health standards, best-before dates of products and a whole lot of other factors/regulations that don't apply to the current bulk of products sold by Amazon.