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I find these passages thought-provoking and persuasive. They ring True: > ...Tech died by conquering the world. Netflix is leading a global transition from li
by cs702 8y ago
I find these passages thought-provoking and persuasive. They ring True:
> ...Tech died by conquering the world. Netflix is leading a global transition from linear to streaming television. Tesla accelerated an electric awakening among auto companies. But if Netflix and Walt Disney both use technology to stream video, why is only Netflix trading at infinity-times earnings? And if Tesla and BMW “both use battery technology to power luxury cars,” Deluard writes, “why should the former trade at 42 times forward earnings when the latter fetches 5.6 times trailing earnings?” Good question.
> ...Some of the largest tech companies have exhausted their main markets. Apple and Samsung may have reached the smartphone plateau, as phone sales seem to have peaked. Facebook and Google have grown to dominate digital advertising. But in the U.S., overall ad spending has historically averaged no more than 3 percent of GDP. How do you grow [faster than the economy] in a sector that isn’t growing [faster]? That’s easy: You don’t. There may be a Malthusian trap in the attention economy. Eventually, revenue growth bumps up against the natural limitations of population and waking hours.
> ...Tech stocks have fallen, because the media mountain has been scaled. Now the largest tech companies aren’t standing at a pinnacle; they’re plotting on a plateau. The challenge of owning the entire life cycle of our spending habits—that’s the real summit. And it’s just up ahead.
The implication for investors is obvious. If "tech" is no longer really a separate fast-growing sector, but rather something that has become pervasive and cannot grow for much longer at a faster rate than the rest of the economy, then "tech" valuation multiples will converge with "non-tech" valuation multiples, and there will no longer be a clear-cut distinction between the two groups.
- mortenjorck 8y agoIt’s a cycle. Everything begins as tech, and ends as just another part of the economy. Heavy industry was once high-tech: Ford was the biggest tech giant of its day. Even something as basic as steel manufacturing was once novel technology. Technology is only innovation which has yet to reach ubiquity.