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I don't believe Tesla will do any good for the planet overall. The only way we can do good is if we sell less individual cars, not more, whether electric or not

by mrpopo 8y ago

I don't believe Tesla will do any good for the planet overall. The only way we can do good is if we sell less individual cars, not more, whether electric or not. Nowhere in Tesla's vision can I see a plan for more electric buses and trains. The USA desperately need a viable train network for the 21st century.

purple_ducks 8y ago
It sure seems like Tesla is the foremost reason car manufacturers have started to fully acknowledge electric is the near(& medium/long term)-future and not just some check box/compliance car to satisfy "well meaning bureaucrats". Existing European/Japanese/US car manufacturers were happy enough to trundle along with existing ICE cars as it required less effort & gave better profits. They & Chinese (electric) car/bus makers are the reason our planet is going to improve - ~0 air pollution in populated areas and massive reduction in nuisance engine noises.
- radiorental 8y ago
  The most popular selling electric car is a Nissan leaf, has been on the market for 8 years, and it costs half of a model 3 (ignoring specs)
  - joenathanone 8y ago
    I don't know where you are getting your numbers, but the top selling electric car is the Tesla Model 3. https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/the-top-5-most-popular-cars/ https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/the-top-5-most-popular-ca... https://cleantechnica.com/2018/09/09/tesla-model-3-becomes-1-best-selling-car-in-the-us/ https://cleantechnica.com/2018/09/09/tesla-model-3-becomes-1...
    - radiorental 8y ago
      You are aware there a whole bunch of other parts of the planet? Total worldwide sales of the leaf are north of 400,000 units. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nissan_Leaf https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nissan_Leaf "Global sales totaled over 380,000 Leafs by December 2018, making the Leaf the world's all-time best-selling highway-capable electric car."
      - mikekchar 8y ago
        I've been looking for a while: Can you furnish a link for worldwide sales of Leafs for 2018 (or at least several months). I've seen several estimates of 7K per month, which would be 84K units, but no actual figures.
        radiorental 8y ago
        Updated my parent comment. I took my numbers from wikipedia. My understanding is that Leaf sales have declined as better cars have come on the market. That said, I was providing a counterpoint to the OP's statement that Japanese manufacturers weren't doing anything, when the facts clearly indicate otherwise.
        purple_ducks 8y ago
        Your fact is that a (singular) Japanese manufacturer made an electric car which was ~popular. Even if it was the most popular selling electric car, it's dwarfed by sales of every other type of car (on every continent). Despite being on sale for ~8 years in Europe, it's still a novelty seeing one on the road. The Leaf wasn't the kick up the arse that other manufacturers needed, the Tesla 3 arguably was. This is in spite of Europe being a massive consumer of Japanese cars in general(Nissan & Toyota in particular). Assuming Tesla 3 doesn't get down to sub €35k price in the next year, Hynudai Kona seems like it will be the best selling EV in Europe in 2019 (provided the end dealers don't mess it up) Some other Japanese manufacturers: Toyota, Honda, Daihatsu, Suzuki, Mazda, Mitsubishi, Subaru, Isuzu Barring Toyota who at least made some effort with the Prius. What have the rest of those industry players done for EV adoption/advancement? Nothing. Some (even in 2019) still haven't made inroads into EV.
        mikekchar 8y ago
        As I live in Japan, I can help you with this. Mitsubishi has an electric vehicle and also partners with Nissan to maintain the charging infrastructure. Here's a Wikipedia link to Mitsubishi's vehicle: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitsubishi_i-MiEV https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitsubishi_i-MiEV It's not as popular as the leaf, but I see a fair number of them around here. Toyota and Mazda have made a joint venture for electric vehicles. They will be releasing their first vehicles in 2020. I'm not sure why they waited this long. I think the main reason for Toyota was that the Prius has been absolutely dominating the Japanese market for years, thanks in part to rebates from the government. I think it's the normal desire of a big company to avoid cannibalizing their successful sales. As for Mazda, they bet big on their turbine engine and I think they didn't have enough money to invest in R&D -- you will note that they never made a hybrid. I have no idea what Honda is doing. At one point they claimed that all of their cars were going to have electric drive trains. However, they put all of their eggs in the hydrogen infrastructure that almost certainly isn't going to pan out. They have stopped production of the hybrid Insight in Japan, so I don't really know what their next move is. Apparently they have the Clarity (a plug in hybrid) which I've never seen in Japan. However, I would not discount them as, like I said, they've seen the electric writing on the wall for a long time. I was just about to say that I would be surprised if Suzuki puts out an electric vehicle. The main office is literally down the street from my mother in laws place and I know lots of people who work there. However, I just did a google search and it appears that Suzuki has joined Toyota and Mazda in their joint venture and will release an EV in 2020 (however, reading between the lines, I think it might be a plugin hybrid aimed at continental Asian markets). As for Daihatsu, they have made some concept EV cars. I've got an article from 2010 where they made an EV version of the Mira. Keep in mind that Daihatsu has been experimenting with EV for a long time. They did the EV1 in 1973! They also have a whole range of commercial "cars" (more like golf carts, really) that you frequently see on Japanese roads. Basically one-seaters used for delivering things. I don't actually expect them to enter into the market seriously for at least 5 years, though, because they don't make expensive cars. Although the prices have risen a bit recently, the main thing about Daihatsu has been that you can buy a decent car for ~$10K. It's just not feasible to build EVs at that price point without going the golf cart route, I think. Subaru used to sell an EV in Japan. It didn't do very well and I've probably only seen it once or twice on the road. I think they are currently out of the market, but apparently have plans to re-enter in 2021. I don't know anything about Isuzu (except that they make a shit ton of kei-tra - ubiquitous white light "pickup" truck - that every single farmer in Japan owns). Apparently they have an electric truck, but it is quite big -- for hauling containers, etc. For consumer vehicles, I think they are in the same boat as Daihatsu -- their bread an butter is dirt cheap trucks that just aren't going to be feasible in EV forms for a while. One of the things that might surprise you is that I've never, ever seen a Tesla on the road in Japan. Probably they don't sell them here. Nor have I seen a Chevy volt. In fact I have not seen a single EV that isn't Japanese. If I didn't read HN, I would have the impression that Japanese manufacturers were the only companies making EVs. Of course, we know that's not true, but it's easy to get a strange perspective when you only experience things in one country. Having said that, I'll be curious to see if Toyota's decision to wait before making an EV will pay off. I tend to think that Nissan and Mitsubishi (having had EVs on the road for 8 years now) will have an advantage. However, it occurs to me that Nissan and Mitsubishi can't have been making much (if any) profit on their EV program, while Toyota has been making buckets off of the Prius. Also, Toyota, Mazda and apparently Suzuki are pooling their resources, which will reduce their initial cost to market, so it might actually pay off. Only time will tell. But this is just to say that Japanese manufacturers have not been sitting on their hands (with the possible exception of Honda -- I have no idea what they are doing).
  - virgilp 8y ago
    Leaf didn't change anything. What changed the general attitude was half a milion people that pre-ordered Model3 with $1000 cash advance, in a matter of days, without knowing almost anything about it (other than "it's a Tesla"). [edit] Why the downvote? That event was obviously a huge wake-up call that proved to everyone there is real customer demand for electric cars, and that existing manufacturers are risking their future if they don't jump on the bandwagon.
    - radiorental 8y ago
      > Leaf didn't change anything. Citation needed. Nissan has sold 400,000 of them to date. I believe that once the initial backorder is addressed and Model 3's get some miles under their belts we will see the various subpar engineering & manufacturing issues highlighted in the teardowns come back to bite. https://www.motortrend.com/news/tesla-model-3-teardown-deconstructed-3/ https://www.motortrend.com/news/tesla-model-3-teardown-decon... The model 3 excels where the SV talent was brought to bear but it's long term durability is clearly suspect; too many parts, too many fasteners on too heavy a frame. And that will have serious consequences for the brand over time.
      - virgilp 8y ago
        Let me rephrase: I can't name a single market development that I can convincingly argue was significantly influenced by the launch (or success) of Nissan Leaf. Nissan is way more effective than Tesla at mass-production, yes. But there's not one single market where Leaf is their most successful model (certainly true for 2017, I suspect for 2018 htat's also true). [edit] Maybe that's true; I'm not saying that Tesla will win the market long term. To make an analogy: you can say Tesla is Blackberry, not Apple. Maybe they don't "own" the smartphone market, and maybe in the end they day - BUT, they left their mark. Thay have had decisive influence in the industry. The Nissan Leaf? From where I stand, it looks like a Nokia Communicator - or worse. A product that does sell, true - but mostly because of the parent company; eventually it doesn't leave a lasting mark.
        sokoloff 8y ago
  - codeulike 8y ago
    No its not. Leaf led in 2014, but not since then.
    - radiorental 8y ago
      Re-read my comment. It has sold more units that any other electric car.
      - codeulike 8y ago
        Right, so its most popular when viewed over a long timeframe because it was one of the first decent ones.
- rmrfrmrf 8y ago
  Yes, Musk saw that there was need for the uber-wealthy (who produce the vast majority of carbon emissions) to signal their views on climate change via luxury sportscars, and, regardless of how badly he's exploiting workers, you can't deny that he's achieved lukewarm success. I mean, wow, less than 4% profit off of all your employees working 80 hour workweeks? Truly earth-shattering stuff right there.
wongarsu 8y ago
They already did good for the planet (as well as humanity). Any time somebody already planned to replace their car and chooses electric over ICE is a win for the planet. It's also a health improvement for humans living in urban environments. Tesla might not be selling that many cars, but they are the major reason why established brands like Volkswagen feel pressure to "catch up" and massively invest in new EV lineups. Once those companies have caught up in terms of technology and lineup they will massively outsell anything Tesla is capable of, helping reduce our impact on the climate and our health. Of course public transport would be even better, but don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good
- chrisper 8y ago
  >Any time somebody already planned to replace their car I highly doubt that the process of replacing a car does not result in a huge negative impact on the planet that has to be "paid off" over time through the gains of switching to an electric car. Basically, don't you start in the negatives when replacing a car with an electric one?
  - wongarsu 8y ago
    Cars are replaced anyways, and for climate and environment the effects over one year matter a lot less than the effects over a decade.
    - chrisper 8y ago
      Do you really think people buying a Tesla today will still drive the same car in 10 years?
      - swish_bob 8y ago
        Do you think that if they'd bought a BMW, the answer would be different? People who regularly change their cars regularly change their cars ...
        8y ago
vinay427 8y ago
With even a glance at the public transport statement in other countries it becomes clear to me that trains and buses have minimal utility to the swaths of Americans (and Canadians, as well as possibly others) living in sparsely populated suburbs. Most homes in the suburbs and exurbs are about as accessible to a viable train or bus stop as homes in villages in a place like Switzerland, where I currently live. It simply doesn't make sense to have bus stops within a walkable distance (which is necessary for people to transition entirely to public transit) if far fewer people live around each bus stop. In a select few US cities, it works well enough, but many cities and nearly all suburbs are simply not practical cases for buses and trains without other assistive modes of transit. Electric scooters and e-bikes provide hope of fixing this last mile problem, but they're not yet universal enough. I think we should laud Tesla and other similar companies for providing a no-compromises solution that results in immediate positive effects on the environment.
- deleted 8y ago
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- vidarh 8y ago
  Most people in America live in places with comparable density to places in Europe with good public transport. The idea that America is so sparsely populated is only sustained because of the vast areas with really low density but also low total population. California, for example, is only slightly less densely populated than France. Nevada is slightly less dense than Norway, but 2.2m of the 3m population live in the Las Vegas Valley, that makes up less than a percent of the total land area, so most of the population live in an area more than dense enough for successful public transit. There are certainly really low density areas where trains and buses have less utility, but most people don't live there, or they wouldn't have been so low density. And this is after a century of neglecting public transport. If there was more investment in public transport in the denser areas, density would likely increase further, because public transport hubs tends to drive up footfall to businesses nearby.
  - vinay427 8y ago
    I agree that density would increase with better public transit. However, this is still a chicken-and-egg problem. Anecdotally, I would claim that a lot more places in Europe with similar density have their density organized around existing city centers, plazas/squares, and other focus points, which makes public transit far more effective. The overall density may be similar (for instance, I live in a major European city and there's farmland next to me) but housing is more concentrated around specific points. Destinations such as grocery stores seem more conveniently located, at least in Switzerland, where every train station and major bus stop seems to have a selection of stores in the immediate vicinity as well as a large amount of housing centered around it, with density decreasing as one moves farther from the transit point. It doesn't seem like that's the case in the vast majority of the US. While the density of California may be similar to that of France, it seems like people occupy much more of the land. Here's an article I found that happens to illustrate what I mean, but it unfortunately only has data for a few places: https://www.citylab.com/life/2018/02/theres-a-better-way-to-measure-population-density/552815/ https://www.citylab.com/life/2018/02/theres-a-better-way-to-...
beaconstudios 8y ago
the onus can't be on Tesla to save the world. They're doing their part, we need more companies who aim for good instead of profits. The only way incumbent companies will change is through market pressure. Tesla's doing that for cars, but who's doing it for other forms of manufacturing? And who's pressuring town and city governance to improve public transport and urban planning? There's movements springing up to improve public transit through activism (like https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2018/jul/05/meet-the-numtots-the-millennials-who-find-fixing-public-transit-sexy-urbanist-memes https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2018/jul/05/meet-the-numt...) but companies who exist to make markets green will be essential.
redwood 8y ago
The US is just too low density to solve mobility problems without a mix of electric autonomous vehicles and transit
- lotsofpulp 8y ago
  People moving to more dense locations would solve that.
golergka 8y ago
That's what Uber is working at. Seriously though - taxi prices and usability before the advent of taxi app were nowhere near the level that would allow me or my peers to regularly take a cab from home to work. Now it's trivial.
- mrpopo 8y ago
  Indeed Uber's mission is more promising - not only taxi availability but also car pool, and push for AI driving. These are great solutions to reduce the need for individual cars in areas where public transit is not a viable solution.
tasubotadas 8y ago
> The only way we can do good is if we sell less individual cars, not more, whether electric or not. Obviously, you have a sound argument(s) to support your claim, right?
tootie 8y ago
You're not entirely wrong, but that's still a cynical point of view. Electric cars are a huge win over combustion and don't require us to rebuild the infrastructure of the entire world. Just saying "it won't save the world, so it sucks" is the wrong attitude. It's an improvement. And we're going to need a lot of improvements to add up while we work towards a moon shot solution that may not appear for 50 or 100 years.
- foepys 8y ago
  I disagree. The power consumption of electric cars is enough to transform entire cities. If everybody drove electric right now, the current power grids would just collapse.
  - brewdad 8y ago
    With the right pricing incentives, there's still a lot of slack during lower demand periods (overnight). The grid must be able to handle peak demand during the day but after say 10pm demand falls sharply. Offer discounts on overnight electrical usage and you can smooth out demand throughout the 24 hour day. We still would need to invest in upgrading the power grid but that investment is long overdue anyway.
    - foepys 8y ago
      That's not even what I'm talking about. People will want to load their cars at the supermarket or at work. That's when power demand is very high anyways, so the grid will be under a lot of stress.
      - brewdad 8y ago
        And you missed my point. If it costs $10 to charge at work and only $1 to charge at home, people will charge at home overnight. The worst electric vehicles easily go 100 miles on a charge in cold weather. The number of people doing commutes greater than 50 miles each way is statistical noise.
ohitsdom 8y ago
Removing the need for every household to have their own dedicated car is part of Tesla's vision. Elon has referred to self-driving functionality as a "shared electric autonomy". https://electrek.co/2018/10/25/tesla-network-elon-musk-competing-uber-self-driving-cars/ https://electrek.co/2018/10/25/tesla-network-elon-musk-compe...
- clouddrover 8y ago
  I've tried short term car rental services where you can rent a car for a few hours. Half the time it worked well, the other half of the time it was a hassle. Some problems I had were that sometimes the car wasn't where it was supposed to be, a couple of times the car was double booked, and quite often the cars had other people's rubbish in them. One time the car was full of sand (clearly someone had been to the beach). I think in my case I'd always prefer to have my own car.
  - gaius 8y ago
    Some problems I had were that sometimes the car wasn't where it was supposed to be, a couple of times the car was double booked, and quite often the cars had other people's rubbish in them. One time the car was full of sand (clearly someone had been to the beach). These are not things that Elon will ever personally experience.
  - michaelt 8y ago
    People who advocate this line of thought imagine a density of cars so high that if a car is dirty, you reject it and a replacement is 2 minutes away; and if you need a child seat and a bike rack, a car with both fitted is only 2 minutes away, and so on. They imagine a street like [1] but with every yellow cab an instant-hire robot car. Obviously, it's difficult to square that theory with the "Public transit won't work in America as the population density is too low" line of thought so you probably have to choose one or the other. [1] https://www.alamy.com/stock-photo-busy-street-scene-in-city-avenue-road-manhattan-new-york-city-new-1477662.html https://www.alamy.com/stock-photo-busy-street-scene-in-city-...
WhompingWindows 8y ago
Your comment requires readers to dive head-first into the train fantasy myth, which has been debunked numerous times. Trains will not happen in the very sparsely populated USA, from Amtrak to NYC to Cali high speed rail, we are seeing evidence that trains are extremely hard to accomplish even in high-density areas. We must move forward amazingly fast for climate change if we are to avoid trillions in damage, and we simply can not do so if we don't include massive amounts of batteries into our energy system. On cars, I agree with you, people are very irrational when it comes to cars. I'd be in favor of a massive vehicle miles traveled tax, to repair our roads and to tax emissions from transit. But the simple fact is people love being in their own car and there's no other viable option for most people. Furthermore, even if you magic a train system into existence, you still don't solve the battery/energy storage situation with trains (which will never have the will or funding or political backing to ever be built, as we are seeing over and over). Without batteries or nuclear (another two train-like near-impossible task), we'll still need natural gas peakers, and we won't solve climate change. Batteries are the only area we're moving forward, and that's why Tesla is doing amazing good for the planet.
- tasubotadas 8y ago
  I have no idea why is this downvoted (greyed out). It seems that trains (intercity) can work in some countries (Japan for example), but in most countries these days it is more expensive to take a train than a flight (the UK, Germany for example)! And these are densely populated areas. I can only imagine how ridiculous that would be in the US which is sparsely populated. A note on peak energies is spot on as well - if it is difficult to balance a network with a varying consumption that would be even a bigger challenge when production is nondeterministic (solar, wind) as well. While I definitely support battery storage development, the truth is that fossil-based plants are going to be needed for another few decades so the operators could balance the network. For example, the recently installed battery in Australia could provide electricity to San Francisco just for 9 minutes (if I did my math correctly) which is probably not even enough time to start another plant. EDIT: 11 minutes : https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=129MWh+%2F+(5740+GWh+%2F+(24h+*+365)+ https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=129MWh+%2F+(5740+GWh+%...)
nwah1 8y ago
Tesla's full vision of self-driving cars that form a ridesharing network would indeed dramatically reduce the number of cars. Most cars sit around unused, taking up space. When idle time for cars drops, then demand for cars will drop. This also means we'll have much less need for parking lots, etc. Parking infrastructure consumes a huge portion of prime urban land. Curbside parking alone is sometimes estimated at 10%. Thus, it would also reduce sprawl, and thereby reduce both commute times and the amount of energy required to commute. All of those things would be eco-friendly, if we can move in that direction. Particularly once we shut down all the coal plants.
- slededit 8y ago
  The main benefit to owning your own car is instant access. To retain that a significant portion of these cars will be sitting in parking lots just the same as if their owners had drove them. Queuing theory forms a mathematical basis for analyzing the problem. So far its been heavily analyzed and applied towards dynamic pricing models. But if you want to replace cars people need to feel confident they are going to have a ride available in a short amount of time and not be price gouged.
  - nwah1 8y ago
    Urbanization has been continuing apace, and in urban environments ridesharing apps generally can have a car at your doorstep in minutes. Sometimes as little as 1 minute. Generally not more than 7. When you factor in not needing to find parking, and no need to walk to and from your parking spot, it absolutely saves time.
beerlord 8y ago
The US has the largest rail network in the world [1]. Its used for freight, not passengers, which is a more sensible use since rail can more large amounts of heavy stuff cheaply. Moving a few passengers at high speed is extremely expensive, and better done by aircraft or autonomous cars. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_rail_transport_network_size https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_rail_tran... Tesla is doing the best for planet Earth of any company on the planet. Without them we would not be seeing traditional autos move away from fossil fuel vehicles - the margins and established knowledge would have been too good to just abandon it.

by mrpopo 8y ago

purple_ducks 8y ago

It sure seems like Tesla is the foremost reason car manufacturers have started to fully acknowledge electric is the near(& medium/long term)-future and not just some check box/compliance car to satisfy "well meaning bureaucrats". Existing European/Japanese/US car manufacturers were happy enough to trundle along with existing ICE cars as it required less effort & gave better profits. They & Chinese (electric) car/bus makers are the reason our planet is going to improve - ~0 air pollution in populated areas and massive reduction in nuisance engine noises.

radiorental 8y ago
The most popular selling electric car is a Nissan leaf, has been on the market for 8 years, and it costs half of a model 3 (ignoring specs)
- joenathanone 8y ago
  I don't know where you are getting your numbers, but the top selling electric car is the Tesla Model 3. https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/the-top-5-most-popular-cars/ https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/the-top-5-most-popular-ca... https://cleantechnica.com/2018/09/09/tesla-model-3-becomes-1-best-selling-car-in-the-us/ https://cleantechnica.com/2018/09/09/tesla-model-3-becomes-1...
  - radiorental 8y ago
    You are aware there a whole bunch of other parts of the planet? Total worldwide sales of the leaf are north of 400,000 units. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nissan_Leaf https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nissan_Leaf "Global sales totaled over 380,000 Leafs by December 2018, making the Leaf the world's all-time best-selling highway-capable electric car."
    - mikekchar 8y ago
      I've been looking for a while: Can you furnish a link for worldwide sales of Leafs for 2018 (or at least several months). I've seen several estimates of 7K per month, which would be 84K units, but no actual figures.
      - radiorental 8y ago
        Updated my parent comment. I took my numbers from wikipedia. My understanding is that Leaf sales have declined as better cars have come on the market. That said, I was providing a counterpoint to the OP's statement that Japanese manufacturers weren't doing anything, when the facts clearly indicate otherwise.
        purple_ducks 8y ago
        Your fact is that a (singular) Japanese manufacturer made an electric car which was ~popular. Even if it was the most popular selling electric car, it's dwarfed by sales of every other type of car (on every continent). Despite being on sale for ~8 years in Europe, it's still a novelty seeing one on the road. The Leaf wasn't the kick up the arse that other manufacturers needed, the Tesla 3 arguably was. This is in spite of Europe being a massive consumer of Japanese cars in general(Nissan & Toyota in particular). Assuming Tesla 3 doesn't get down to sub €35k price in the next year, Hynudai Kona seems like it will be the best selling EV in Europe in 2019 (provided the end dealers don't mess it up) Some other Japanese manufacturers: Toyota, Honda, Daihatsu, Suzuki, Mazda, Mitsubishi, Subaru, Isuzu Barring Toyota who at least made some effort with the Prius. What have the rest of those industry players done for EV adoption/advancement? Nothing. Some (even in 2019) still haven't made inroads into EV.
        mikekchar 8y ago
        As I live in Japan, I can help you with this. Mitsubishi has an electric vehicle and also partners with Nissan to maintain the charging infrastructure. Here's a Wikipedia link to Mitsubishi's vehicle: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitsubishi_i-MiEV https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitsubishi_i-MiEV It's not as popular as the leaf, but I see a fair number of them around here. Toyota and Mazda have made a joint venture for electric vehicles. They will be releasing their first vehicles in 2020. I'm not sure why they waited this long. I think the main reason for Toyota was that the Prius has been absolutely dominating the Japanese market for years, thanks in part to rebates from the government. I think it's the normal desire of a big company to avoid cannibalizing their successful sales. As for Mazda, they bet big on their turbine engine and I think they didn't have enough money to invest in R&D -- you will note that they never made a hybrid. I have no idea what Honda is doing. At one point they claimed that all of their cars were going to have electric drive trains. However, they put all of their eggs in the hydrogen infrastructure that almost certainly isn't going to pan out. They have stopped production of the hybrid Insight in Japan, so I don't really know what their next move is. Apparently they have the Clarity (a plug in hybrid) which I've never seen in Japan. However, I would not discount them as, like I said, they've seen the electric writing on the wall for a long time. I was just about to say that I would be surprised if Suzuki puts out an electric vehicle. The main office is literally down the street from my mother in laws place and I know lots of people who work there. However, I just did a google search and it appears that Suzuki has joined Toyota and Mazda in their joint venture and will release an EV in 2020 (however, reading between the lines, I think it might be a plugin hybrid aimed at continental Asian markets). As for Daihatsu, they have made some concept EV cars. I've got an article from 2010 where they made an EV version of the Mira. Keep in mind that Daihatsu has been experimenting with EV for a long time. They did the EV1 in 1973! They also have a whole range of commercial "cars" (more like golf carts, really) that you frequently see on Japanese roads. Basically one-seaters used for delivering things. I don't actually expect them to enter into the market seriously for at least 5 years, though, because they don't make expensive cars. Although the prices have risen a bit recently, the main thing about Daihatsu has been that you can buy a decent car for ~$10K. It's just not feasible to build EVs at that price point without going the golf cart route, I think. Subaru used to sell an EV in Japan. It didn't do very well and I've probably only seen it once or twice on the road. I think they are currently out of the market, but apparently have plans to re-enter in 2021. I don't know anything about Isuzu (except that they make a shit ton of kei-tra - ubiquitous white light "pickup" truck - that every single farmer in Japan owns). Apparently they have an electric truck, but it is quite big -- for hauling containers, etc. For consumer vehicles, I think they are in the same boat as Daihatsu -- their bread an butter is dirt cheap trucks that just aren't going to be feasible in EV forms for a while. One of the things that might surprise you is that I've never, ever seen a Tesla on the road in Japan. Probably they don't sell them here. Nor have I seen a Chevy volt. In fact I have not seen a single EV that isn't Japanese. If I didn't read HN, I would have the impression that Japanese manufacturers were the only companies making EVs. Of course, we know that's not true, but it's easy to get a strange perspective when you only experience things in one country. Having said that, I'll be curious to see if Toyota's decision to wait before making an EV will pay off. I tend to think that Nissan and Mitsubishi (having had EVs on the road for 8 years now) will have an advantage. However, it occurs to me that Nissan and Mitsubishi can't have been making much (if any) profit on their EV program, while Toyota has been making buckets off of the Prius. Also, Toyota, Mazda and apparently Suzuki are pooling their resources, which will reduce their initial cost to market, so it might actually pay off. Only time will tell. But this is just to say that Japanese manufacturers have not been sitting on their hands (with the possible exception of Honda -- I have no idea what they are doing).
- virgilp 8y ago
  Leaf didn't change anything. What changed the general attitude was half a milion people that pre-ordered Model3 with $1000 cash advance, in a matter of days, without knowing almost anything about it (other than "it's a Tesla"). [edit] Why the downvote? That event was obviously a huge wake-up call that proved to everyone there is real customer demand for electric cars, and that existing manufacturers are risking their future if they don't jump on the bandwagon.
  - radiorental 8y ago
    > Leaf didn't change anything. Citation needed. Nissan has sold 400,000 of them to date. I believe that once the initial backorder is addressed and Model 3's get some miles under their belts we will see the various subpar engineering & manufacturing issues highlighted in the teardowns come back to bite. https://www.motortrend.com/news/tesla-model-3-teardown-deconstructed-3/ https://www.motortrend.com/news/tesla-model-3-teardown-decon... The model 3 excels where the SV talent was brought to bear but it's long term durability is clearly suspect; too many parts, too many fasteners on too heavy a frame. And that will have serious consequences for the brand over time.
    - virgilp 8y ago
      Let me rephrase: I can't name a single market development that I can convincingly argue was significantly influenced by the launch (or success) of Nissan Leaf. Nissan is way more effective than Tesla at mass-production, yes. But there's not one single market where Leaf is their most successful model (certainly true for 2017, I suspect for 2018 htat's also true). [edit] Maybe that's true; I'm not saying that Tesla will win the market long term. To make an analogy: you can say Tesla is Blackberry, not Apple. Maybe they don't "own" the smartphone market, and maybe in the end they day - BUT, they left their mark. Thay have had decisive influence in the industry. The Nissan Leaf? From where I stand, it looks like a Nokia Communicator - or worse. A product that does sell, true - but mostly because of the parent company; eventually it doesn't leave a lasting mark.
      - sokoloff 8y ago
- codeulike 8y ago
  No its not. Leaf led in 2014, but not since then.
  - radiorental 8y ago
    Re-read my comment. It has sold more units that any other electric car.
    - codeulike 8y ago
      Right, so its most popular when viewed over a long timeframe because it was one of the first decent ones.
rmrfrmrf 8y ago
Yes, Musk saw that there was need for the uber-wealthy (who produce the vast majority of carbon emissions) to signal their views on climate change via luxury sportscars, and, regardless of how badly he's exploiting workers, you can't deny that he's achieved lukewarm success. I mean, wow, less than 4% profit off of all your employees working 80 hour workweeks? Truly earth-shattering stuff right there.

wongarsu 8y ago

They already did good for the planet (as well as humanity). Any time somebody already planned to replace their car and chooses electric over ICE is a win for the planet. It's also a health improvement for humans living in urban environments. Tesla might not be selling that many cars, but they are the major reason why established brands like Volkswagen feel pressure to "catch up" and massively invest in new EV lineups. Once those companies have caught up in terms of technology and lineup they will massively outsell anything Tesla is capable of, helping reduce our impact on the climate and our health. Of course public transport would be even better, but don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good

chrisper 8y ago
>Any time somebody already planned to replace their car I highly doubt that the process of replacing a car does not result in a huge negative impact on the planet that has to be "paid off" over time through the gains of switching to an electric car. Basically, don't you start in the negatives when replacing a car with an electric one?
- wongarsu 8y ago
  Cars are replaced anyways, and for climate and environment the effects over one year matter a lot less than the effects over a decade.
  - chrisper 8y ago
    Do you really think people buying a Tesla today will still drive the same car in 10 years?
    - swish_bob 8y ago
      Do you think that if they'd bought a BMW, the answer would be different? People who regularly change their cars regularly change their cars ...
      - 8y ago

vinay427 8y ago

With even a glance at the public transport statement in other countries it becomes clear to me that trains and buses have minimal utility to the swaths of Americans (and Canadians, as well as possibly others) living in sparsely populated suburbs. Most homes in the suburbs and exurbs are about as accessible to a viable train or bus stop as homes in villages in a place like Switzerland, where I currently live. It simply doesn't make sense to have bus stops within a walkable distance (which is necessary for people to transition entirely to public transit) if far fewer people live around each bus stop. In a select few US cities, it works well enough, but many cities and nearly all suburbs are simply not practical cases for buses and trains without other assistive modes of transit. Electric scooters and e-bikes provide hope of fixing this last mile problem, but they're not yet universal enough. I think we should laud Tesla and other similar companies for providing a no-compromises solution that results in immediate positive effects on the environment.

deleted 8y ago
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vidarh 8y ago
Most people in America live in places with comparable density to places in Europe with good public transport. The idea that America is so sparsely populated is only sustained because of the vast areas with really low density but also low total population. California, for example, is only slightly less densely populated than France. Nevada is slightly less dense than Norway, but 2.2m of the 3m population live in the Las Vegas Valley, that makes up less than a percent of the total land area, so most of the population live in an area more than dense enough for successful public transit. There are certainly really low density areas where trains and buses have less utility, but most people don't live there, or they wouldn't have been so low density. And this is after a century of neglecting public transport. If there was more investment in public transport in the denser areas, density would likely increase further, because public transport hubs tends to drive up footfall to businesses nearby.
- vinay427 8y ago
  I agree that density would increase with better public transit. However, this is still a chicken-and-egg problem. Anecdotally, I would claim that a lot more places in Europe with similar density have their density organized around existing city centers, plazas/squares, and other focus points, which makes public transit far more effective. The overall density may be similar (for instance, I live in a major European city and there's farmland next to me) but housing is more concentrated around specific points. Destinations such as grocery stores seem more conveniently located, at least in Switzerland, where every train station and major bus stop seems to have a selection of stores in the immediate vicinity as well as a large amount of housing centered around it, with density decreasing as one moves farther from the transit point. It doesn't seem like that's the case in the vast majority of the US. While the density of California may be similar to that of France, it seems like people occupy much more of the land. Here's an article I found that happens to illustrate what I mean, but it unfortunately only has data for a few places: https://www.citylab.com/life/2018/02/theres-a-better-way-to-measure-population-density/552815/ https://www.citylab.com/life/2018/02/theres-a-better-way-to-...

beaconstudios 8y ago

the onus can't be on Tesla to save the world. They're doing their part, we need more companies who aim for good instead of profits. The only way incumbent companies will change is through market pressure. Tesla's doing that for cars, but who's doing it for other forms of manufacturing? And who's pressuring town and city governance to improve public transport and urban planning? There's movements springing up to improve public transit through activism (like https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2018/jul/05/meet-the-numtots-the-millennials-who-find-fixing-public-transit-sexy-urbanist-memes https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2018/jul/05/meet-the-numt...) but companies who exist to make markets green will be essential.

redwood 8y ago

The US is just too low density to solve mobility problems without a mix of electric autonomous vehicles and transit

lotsofpulp 8y ago
People moving to more dense locations would solve that.

golergka 8y ago

That's what Uber is working at. Seriously though - taxi prices and usability before the advent of taxi app were nowhere near the level that would allow me or my peers to regularly take a cab from home to work. Now it's trivial.

mrpopo 8y ago
Indeed Uber's mission is more promising - not only taxi availability but also car pool, and push for AI driving. These are great solutions to reduce the need for individual cars in areas where public transit is not a viable solution.

tasubotadas 8y ago

> The only way we can do good is if we sell less individual cars, not more, whether electric or not. Obviously, you have a sound argument(s) to support your claim, right?

tootie 8y ago

You're not entirely wrong, but that's still a cynical point of view. Electric cars are a huge win over combustion and don't require us to rebuild the infrastructure of the entire world. Just saying "it won't save the world, so it sucks" is the wrong attitude. It's an improvement. And we're going to need a lot of improvements to add up while we work towards a moon shot solution that may not appear for 50 or 100 years.

foepys 8y ago
I disagree. The power consumption of electric cars is enough to transform entire cities. If everybody drove electric right now, the current power grids would just collapse.
- brewdad 8y ago
  With the right pricing incentives, there's still a lot of slack during lower demand periods (overnight). The grid must be able to handle peak demand during the day but after say 10pm demand falls sharply. Offer discounts on overnight electrical usage and you can smooth out demand throughout the 24 hour day. We still would need to invest in upgrading the power grid but that investment is long overdue anyway.
  - foepys 8y ago
    That's not even what I'm talking about. People will want to load their cars at the supermarket or at work. That's when power demand is very high anyways, so the grid will be under a lot of stress.
    - brewdad 8y ago
      And you missed my point. If it costs $10 to charge at work and only $1 to charge at home, people will charge at home overnight. The worst electric vehicles easily go 100 miles on a charge in cold weather. The number of people doing commutes greater than 50 miles each way is statistical noise.

ohitsdom 8y ago

Removing the need for every household to have their own dedicated car is part of Tesla's vision. Elon has referred to self-driving functionality as a "shared electric autonomy". https://electrek.co/2018/10/25/tesla-network-elon-musk-competing-uber-self-driving-cars/ https://electrek.co/2018/10/25/tesla-network-elon-musk-compe...

clouddrover 8y ago
I've tried short term car rental services where you can rent a car for a few hours. Half the time it worked well, the other half of the time it was a hassle. Some problems I had were that sometimes the car wasn't where it was supposed to be, a couple of times the car was double booked, and quite often the cars had other people's rubbish in them. One time the car was full of sand (clearly someone had been to the beach). I think in my case I'd always prefer to have my own car.
- gaius 8y ago
  Some problems I had were that sometimes the car wasn't where it was supposed to be, a couple of times the car was double booked, and quite often the cars had other people's rubbish in them. One time the car was full of sand (clearly someone had been to the beach). These are not things that Elon will ever personally experience.
- michaelt 8y ago
  People who advocate this line of thought imagine a density of cars so high that if a car is dirty, you reject it and a replacement is 2 minutes away; and if you need a child seat and a bike rack, a car with both fitted is only 2 minutes away, and so on. They imagine a street like [1] but with every yellow cab an instant-hire robot car. Obviously, it's difficult to square that theory with the "Public transit won't work in America as the population density is too low" line of thought so you probably have to choose one or the other. [1] https://www.alamy.com/stock-photo-busy-street-scene-in-city-avenue-road-manhattan-new-york-city-new-1477662.html https://www.alamy.com/stock-photo-busy-street-scene-in-city-...

WhompingWindows 8y ago

Your comment requires readers to dive head-first into the train fantasy myth, which has been debunked numerous times. Trains will not happen in the very sparsely populated USA, from Amtrak to NYC to Cali high speed rail, we are seeing evidence that trains are extremely hard to accomplish even in high-density areas. We must move forward amazingly fast for climate change if we are to avoid trillions in damage, and we simply can not do so if we don't include massive amounts of batteries into our energy system. On cars, I agree with you, people are very irrational when it comes to cars. I'd be in favor of a massive vehicle miles traveled tax, to repair our roads and to tax emissions from transit. But the simple fact is people love being in their own car and there's no other viable option for most people. Furthermore, even if you magic a train system into existence, you still don't solve the battery/energy storage situation with trains (which will never have the will or funding or political backing to ever be built, as we are seeing over and over). Without batteries or nuclear (another two train-like near-impossible task), we'll still need natural gas peakers, and we won't solve climate change. Batteries are the only area we're moving forward, and that's why Tesla is doing amazing good for the planet.

tasubotadas 8y ago
I have no idea why is this downvoted (greyed out). It seems that trains (intercity) can work in some countries (Japan for example), but in most countries these days it is more expensive to take a train than a flight (the UK, Germany for example)! And these are densely populated areas. I can only imagine how ridiculous that would be in the US which is sparsely populated. A note on peak energies is spot on as well - if it is difficult to balance a network with a varying consumption that would be even a bigger challenge when production is nondeterministic (solar, wind) as well. While I definitely support battery storage development, the truth is that fossil-based plants are going to be needed for another few decades so the operators could balance the network. For example, the recently installed battery in Australia could provide electricity to San Francisco just for 9 minutes (if I did my math correctly) which is probably not even enough time to start another plant. EDIT: 11 minutes : https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=129MWh+%2F+(5740+GWh+%2F+(24h+*+365)+ https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=129MWh+%2F+(5740+GWh+%...)

nwah1 8y ago

Tesla's full vision of self-driving cars that form a ridesharing network would indeed dramatically reduce the number of cars. Most cars sit around unused, taking up space. When idle time for cars drops, then demand for cars will drop. This also means we'll have much less need for parking lots, etc. Parking infrastructure consumes a huge portion of prime urban land. Curbside parking alone is sometimes estimated at 10%. Thus, it would also reduce sprawl, and thereby reduce both commute times and the amount of energy required to commute. All of those things would be eco-friendly, if we can move in that direction. Particularly once we shut down all the coal plants.

slededit 8y ago
The main benefit to owning your own car is instant access. To retain that a significant portion of these cars will be sitting in parking lots just the same as if their owners had drove them. Queuing theory forms a mathematical basis for analyzing the problem. So far its been heavily analyzed and applied towards dynamic pricing models. But if you want to replace cars people need to feel confident they are going to have a ride available in a short amount of time and not be price gouged.
- nwah1 8y ago
  Urbanization has been continuing apace, and in urban environments ridesharing apps generally can have a car at your doorstep in minutes. Sometimes as little as 1 minute. Generally not more than 7. When you factor in not needing to find parking, and no need to walk to and from your parking spot, it absolutely saves time.

beerlord 8y ago

The US has the largest rail network in the world [1]. Its used for freight, not passengers, which is a more sensible use since rail can more large amounts of heavy stuff cheaply. Moving a few passengers at high speed is extremely expensive, and better done by aircraft or autonomous cars. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_rail_transport_network_size https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_rail_tran... Tesla is doing the best for planet Earth of any company on the planet. Without them we would not be seeing traditional autos move away from fossil fuel vehicles - the margins and established knowledge would have been too good to just abandon it.