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I agree with this, but in a sense it's also rather underwhelming: there's no killer use-case right now that would be instantly popular and economically viable w
by niftich 8y ago
I agree with this, but in a sense it's also rather underwhelming: there's no killer use-case right now that would be instantly popular and economically viable were it for just a bit more faster, even lower latency IP connectivity emanating from the same four companies' installations everywhere. Every idea is just the industry and pundits' wishful thinking, where modest and grand visions mingle in our imaginations before likely suffering an underwhelming end -- probably poor execution, or a nonexistent business model. Except, of course, cloud gaming.
But that's where the economics get fuzzy too. Building out all these base stations will be an enormous cost. Mainstream consumers may tolerate modest price increases for connectivity, but much fewer will bear significantly higher prices, or spring for significantly better plans. Such a market segmentation would also dampen the consumer excitement for use-cases as well.
To get around this, corporations who want to ensure connectivity for their application will push to become MVNOs and offer captive access to the corresponding product, so that the end-user doesn't have to pay the cost directly. This works best when they control the hardware too. Vertical ecosystems will proliferate, where the experience can only be consumed using the corresponding hardware.
It's not hard to imagine the likes -- and competitors -- of an always-connected successor to the Nintendo Switch, streaming games from a nearby server farm using a captive MVNO, or one of the many Amazon or Google's decidedly non-gaming, 'smart hub' devices that ensure their own connectivity without the need to put them on your Wifi. This has serious implications for privacy and business models too: it will be commonplace for devices to be connected to the home base by default in a way that's difficult to thwart, but correspondingly license and authorization servers will always be reachable, so DRM-enforced subscription business models can continue to thrive.
But the issue is, you can already do the entire latter part -- the always-connected home hub, or the always-on DRM captive media player with LTE or lower, but it's not yet done. Why? Because people willingly join them to their Wifi for free. 5G will have to fit into the holes left by existing alternatives, and do it at a price point or cost structure that makes sense.
I expressed my view before [1] that most of the hype surrounding 5G is the industry's own buzz -- likely to get investors excited -- and then amplified by tech journalism, whether intentionally or unwittingly. It greatly remains to be seen how much its deployment lives up to its big expectations.
[1] https://hn.algolia.com/?query=niftich%205G&type=comment https://hn.algolia.com/?query=niftich%205G&type=comment