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They also called out those who were claiming a trump win at < 2%.
by dpwm 8y ago
They also called out those who were claiming a trump win at < 2%.
- dwd 8y agoBecause of the winner takes all distributions in most states the result can flip very easily. If more states had proportional representation for the Electoral College the confidence level would be very high. If they had just predicted the nationwide popular vote, Trump wasn't even close. The chance of him winning the popularity vote was probably in the order of < 2%.
- thousandautumns 8y agoThey actually were called out for giving Trump such a high chance of victory by many. In particular, the Huffington Post accused Nate Silver and 538 of intentionally biasing their results to make it seem like Trump had a better shot. Somehow in the months following the election the narrative completely turned around and now 538 were hacks for not giving Trump an even better chance.