I was curious too, and I found this paper discussing the effects of a 2.5 week shutdown in 2013: https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a589972.pdf https://a

I was curious too, and I found this paper discussing the effects of a 2.5 week shutdown in 2013: https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a589972.pdf https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a589972.pdf (8 pages, I haven't read it all yet, but does seem to have some insights).