4 ms·

How are the shutdown’s effects on the economy being measured? Where did they come up with 0.1% loss every 2 weeks?

by matte_black 8y ago

ams6110 8y ago
Good question. As will all previous shutdowns, I have not noticed any impact whatsoever.
- ceejayoz 8y ago
  I'm curious about what indicators in your personal life you'd use to judge the difference between a country-level 2.7 and 2.8% GDP growth rate for the year.
- guidedlight 8y ago
  There has been no guarantee of back pay for furloughed workers. This is also the first shutdown where military servicemen have not been paid.
  - oftenwrong 8y ago
    https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/bill-announcement-19/ https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/bill-announc...
- BucketSort 8y ago
  Using yourself as a measure of these things is a horrible idea. Most impact is long term and not immediate to our personal lives. These shenanigans are deteriorating people's faith in the government and the country. This will have incredible consequences. Society runs smoothly when people feel their government is taking care of things. When people have reason to doubt their government, it naturally instills a sense of panic and self-preservation which I would expect hurts the economy in many subtle ways.
- SolaceQuantum 8y ago
  I noticed the shutdown of last year. In particular, my advisor(I was a doctorate student at the time) was informed he won a significant award by the NSF with guaranteed funding and was unable to recieve it until two months or so after the shutdown. (As a side note we were also disrupted by the immigration ban, and were unable to bring on excellent scholars to pursue research at our facility.) I'm no longer in research, but of my companions who are, this is definitely being felt.
  - kaitai 8y ago
    Yep. NIH granting cycle is totally derailed & it's job interview season in academia.
- jedberg 8y ago
  The impact at this point is mostly on government workers and the poor. I assume you're lucky enough not to be in one of those groups. Most of the effects aren't immediate. The government does a lot of long term work, things that wouldn't otherwise be profitable. For example, with the shutdown, they've stopped inspecting our food supply. This will affect no one immediately. But in a few weeks, when we have our first e.coli outbreak, assuming we even hear about it (because that's something the CDC, another government org, tracks) then you can talk to those people about how it affected them, assuming they haven't died. The government is currently missing their training and drills for hurricane preparedness. So in June-October, when a hurricane devastates some part of the US and everyone is screaming, "why aren't they helping people!?", the answer will be, "because they didn't get their training in January". And right now NOAA isn't doing their climate research. So in 10 years, when there is a hole in the data that we need to fill out climate models, they won't be there. And no one will even remember why. But no one thinks long term like that.
- zorpner 8y ago
  This federal employee has to choose whether or not to use her small amount of remaining insulin: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/federal-worker-forced-ration-insulin-because-government-shutdown-n958066 https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/federal-worker-forced-r... Her blood sugar rose to a high level last week, but she said she felt forced to ignore it. Instead, she went to bed. “When it gets that high you can go into diabetic ketoacidosis, you can go into a coma,” she said. “I can’t afford to go to the ER. I can’t afford anything. I just went to bed and hoped I’d wake up.”
theplague42 8y ago
> The original estimate that the partial shutdown would subtract 0.1 percentage point from growth every two weeks has now been doubled to a 0.1 percentage point subtraction every week, according to an official who asked not to be named. > The administration had initially counted just the impact from the 800,000 federal workers not receiving their paychecks. But they now believe the impact doubles, due to greater losses from private contractors also out of work and other government spending and functions that won't occur. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/15/source-white-house-believes-shutdown-will-be-twice-as-costly.html https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/15/source-white-house-believes-...
the_mitsuhiko 8y ago
I presume extrapolation from a million of people not receiving paychecks. I assume it's not too different from how you normally estimate GDP.
gniv 8y ago
I was curious too, and I found this paper discussing the effects of a 2.5 week shutdown in 2013: https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a589972.pdf https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a589972.pdf (8 pages, I haven't read it all yet, but does seem to have some insights).

How are the shutdown’s effects on the economy being measured? Where did they come up with 0.1% loss every 2 weeks?

ams6110 8y ago

Good question. As will all previous shutdowns, I have not noticed any impact whatsoever.

ceejayoz 8y ago
I'm curious about what indicators in your personal life you'd use to judge the difference between a country-level 2.7 and 2.8% GDP growth rate for the year.
guidedlight 8y ago
There has been no guarantee of back pay for furloughed workers. This is also the first shutdown where military servicemen have not been paid.
- oftenwrong 8y ago
  https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/bill-announcement-19/ https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/bill-announc...
BucketSort 8y ago
Using yourself as a measure of these things is a horrible idea. Most impact is long term and not immediate to our personal lives. These shenanigans are deteriorating people's faith in the government and the country. This will have incredible consequences. Society runs smoothly when people feel their government is taking care of things. When people have reason to doubt their government, it naturally instills a sense of panic and self-preservation which I would expect hurts the economy in many subtle ways.
SolaceQuantum 8y ago
I noticed the shutdown of last year. In particular, my advisor(I was a doctorate student at the time) was informed he won a significant award by the NSF with guaranteed funding and was unable to recieve it until two months or so after the shutdown. (As a side note we were also disrupted by the immigration ban, and were unable to bring on excellent scholars to pursue research at our facility.) I'm no longer in research, but of my companions who are, this is definitely being felt.
- kaitai 8y ago
  Yep. NIH granting cycle is totally derailed & it's job interview season in academia.
jedberg 8y ago
The impact at this point is mostly on government workers and the poor. I assume you're lucky enough not to be in one of those groups. Most of the effects aren't immediate. The government does a lot of long term work, things that wouldn't otherwise be profitable. For example, with the shutdown, they've stopped inspecting our food supply. This will affect no one immediately. But in a few weeks, when we have our first e.coli outbreak, assuming we even hear about it (because that's something the CDC, another government org, tracks) then you can talk to those people about how it affected them, assuming they haven't died. The government is currently missing their training and drills for hurricane preparedness. So in June-October, when a hurricane devastates some part of the US and everyone is screaming, "why aren't they helping people!?", the answer will be, "because they didn't get their training in January". And right now NOAA isn't doing their climate research. So in 10 years, when there is a hole in the data that we need to fill out climate models, they won't be there. And no one will even remember why. But no one thinks long term like that.
zorpner 8y ago
This federal employee has to choose whether or not to use her small amount of remaining insulin: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/federal-worker-forced-ration-insulin-because-government-shutdown-n958066 https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/federal-worker-forced-r... Her blood sugar rose to a high level last week, but she said she felt forced to ignore it. Instead, she went to bed. “When it gets that high you can go into diabetic ketoacidosis, you can go into a coma,” she said. “I can’t afford to go to the ER. I can’t afford anything. I just went to bed and hoped I’d wake up.”

theplague42 8y ago

> The original estimate that the partial shutdown would subtract 0.1 percentage point from growth every two weeks has now been doubled to a 0.1 percentage point subtraction every week, according to an official who asked not to be named. > The administration had initially counted just the impact from the 800,000 federal workers not receiving their paychecks. But they now believe the impact doubles, due to greater losses from private contractors also out of work and other government spending and functions that won't occur. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/15/source-white-house-believes-shutdown-will-be-twice-as-costly.html https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/15/source-white-house-believes-...

the_mitsuhiko 8y ago

I presume extrapolation from a million of people not receiving paychecks. I assume it's not too different from how you normally estimate GDP.

gniv 8y ago

I was curious too, and I found this paper discussing the effects of a 2.5 week shutdown in 2013: https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a589972.pdf https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a589972.pdf (8 pages, I haven't read it all yet, but does seem to have some insights).