15 ms·

AI Is About To Take The Ship's Helm Away From Humans

61 points by howrude 8y ago

deleted 8y ago
[deleted]
dwighttk 8y ago
“However, autonomy will play out very differently on the water than on land, and in many cases it won’t take humans off the ship—or entirely away from the controls. ... In the near term, it’s more likely that the helm will be controlled by an autonomous system or a remote human operator while a smaller crew takes care of the vessel.” Lots of different things rattling around in the ol’ promise of “autonomy.”
- DamnYuppie 8y ago
  I don't foresee this changing anything for ships. All modern vessels, both commercial and for pleasure, have auto pilots and they are used extensively. The primary job of a captain isn't to drive the vessel, it is to basically be a project manager ensuring that the vessel is running smoothly. This includes everything from crew schedules, maintenance schedules, supplies for the vessel, quality control of procedures, and on and on. The actual piloting is a very small part of what they do.
akira2501 8y ago
Several issues with this idea: 1) On the open ocean, what is there to even avoid? In the harbor, you often don't have a choice; the harbor master is going to _require_ you to pick up a harbor pilot who is rated and certified for the harbor you'll be in and they must be in command of the ships steering and propulsion in order for your ship to even enter their waters. 2) Only 20% of the global merchant fleet is dedicated to shipping. The two other major types of ships, tugs and passenger ships make up most of the rest and neither of these are exactly suited to this technology. 3) Over 50% of the ships in use right now are more than 15 years old. Yea, a new one is _only_ $200 million, but that washes over the real economic picture of ship ownership and maintenance and the likely market for this product. 4) Most ships are not giant Maersk style super-container ships, so staffing reductions aren't likely to be a huge win here, if at all. Ships already run with the _minimum_ crew necessary, usually determined by already established maritime laws and agreements. 5) Microphones and pictures are nice, but ships have actual radar; why not just use that and skip all the fancy "sensor fusion" and off-brand retrofitting?
- madrox 8y ago
  I get the impression you didn't actually read the article, as it addresses most of your questions.
  - deleted 8y ago
    [deleted]
  - akira2501 8y ago
    > as it addresses most of your questions. Vaguely suggesting that three different companies are separately attacking different parts of the problem in a very narrow area of the world with special permits and no collective breakdown of their efforts, their progress or their potential benefits didn't seem to effectively address anything nor does it support it's own headline. The headline was my main beef; but, we could get into the fact that the two most common maritime insurance claims are for weather damage and theft.. striking submerged objects is also a very common one, which is why harbors require skilled pilots with continual testing to bring boats in and out of those waters. I'm still very much suspicious of these "bolt-on" AI businesses and all the uncritical hype that surrounds them.
- ehnto 8y ago
  There are some ships, small sailing ships for example, that do not get picked up by radar. They often need to get radar reflectors fitted to be visible. You certainly wouldn't want to be on a sailing vessel while an automated cargo ship barrels down on you. Sailing ships get right of way to powered ships as well so detecting the difference between vessels is important and the automation would need to take that into account too. Although I am not sure how it actually plays out in practice. I somehow doubt a tanker is giving way to a cruising sail vessel once it is underway.
  - akira2501 8y ago
    > Although I am not sure how it actually plays out in practice. There are exceptions, in established shipping (and a few other types of) channels, the sailboat does _not_ have right of way. Also, when sailboats are using their motors for power they are considered motorboats and the special right of way no longer applies. It is also very rare to see a sailboat under sail power in a harbor and large commercial ships are always manually piloted in a harbor.
itslennysfault 8y ago
Remember the movie Hackers when the DiVinci virus capsized those ships?
m0zg 8y ago
Can someone explain why there aren't that many autonomous _trains_? And I don't mean SFO airport train and others like it, but a real, full-size train moving people or goods around the country. Seems like every other year a train flies off the rails due to nothing more than negligence of train's engineer. Why not automate this completely? You don't even have to steer.
- maxxxxx 8y ago
  I wonder about that too. It seems a much simpler and constrained task than driving a car.
  - topspin 8y ago
    > It seems a much simpler and constrained task than driving a car. It's not. Always assume that whatever limit can be exploited to maximize economic return is pursued to the maximum extent by everyone involved at nearly all times. If you do so you will be right more often than you are wrong. An occupation that is conceptually "easy" is made demanding through optimization. Heavy freight trains that navigate hilly or mountainous terrain can rip themselves apart when they are not operated with precision. Passenger train operators can be held to schedules where deviation in either direction is measured in seconds regardless of weather, faults, mistakes, uncooperative passengers, etc. When large amounts of capital are involved always assume that the expectations will be extraordinary and, therefore, difficult to automate.
- deleted 8y ago
  [deleted]
- Chetan496 8y ago
  Dockland light railway is completely automated. This train line is in London. I have travelled on it. There is no engine room or train driver. It felt interesting to sit in the very first train cabin which would usually be an engine room in other trains.
  - isostatic 8y ago
philwelch 8y ago
> In the near term, it’s more likely that the helm will be controlled by an autonomous system or a remote human operator while a smaller crew takes care of the vessel. Hopefully the helm and navigation controls are governed by a secure, air-gapped connection; otherwise someone could hijack the signal and commandeer the ship remotely, and that would be the first case of actual internet piracy.
- tirpen 8y ago
  There has been experiments with GPS successful Spoofing attacks against ships, so even if it is airgapped, it's not 100% safe. https://insidegnss.com/gps-spoofing-experiment-knocks-ship-off-course/ https://insidegnss.com/gps-spoofing-experiment-knocks-ship-o...
  - philwelch 8y ago
    Sure, but then they wouldn't be internet pirates, they would just be electronic pirates.
  - Piskvorrr 8y ago
    Air gap is a metaphor dealing with system borders - if you have a fully trusted input, you don't have an air gap, even if that input comes in wirelessly.
blauditore 8y ago
I wonder if that's on purpose, but I interpreted the title as metaphorical first, thinking it was another dystopian fantasy about computers taking over the world.
- kochikame 8y ago
  No, not just you, exactly how I read it too
- Slartie 8y ago
  I went on a similar, but slightly different path. I thought it was an article not so much about a dystopian fantasy, but about the harsh (and in some ways also dystopian) reality of AI and ML systems not being "debuggable" and understandable by humans like traditional algorithmic systems had been, which effectively means that we can only reason about decisions of such systems to a very limited degree.
- SenHeng 8y ago
  I thought so but then I saw that it was forbes and quickly figured it was simply a pun and it probably refers to some kind of automated sailing system. I've only read the first paragraph of TFA and it looks like I was right.
masonic 8y ago
Hey, what could go wrong? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Ultimate_Computer https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Ultimate_Computer
yason 8y ago
I could see a potential with completely autonomous vessels that could sail for weeks/months on solar/wind power without any human presence. Crew would only board the ship when approaching a harbour, and steer her to the dock. Solar panels and wind turbines could generate electricity which would be stored in batteries and then used to drive electric motors propelling the ship. Slower than diesel but also cheaper and with less moving parts.
- runeks 8y ago
  > Solar panels and wind turbines could generate electricity which would be stored in batteries and then used to drive electric motors propelling the ship. I wonder what the efficiency of a wind turbine + engine would be compared to a sail. Ie. if the wind blows so a ship with a sail moves at 20 mph, how fast could the wind turbine + engine move it?
- falcolas 8y ago
  There’s also a lot of maintenance that goes on while the ship is out at sea - requiring crew members regardless of who is piloting the ship. Requiring a ship to go into drydock for routine maintenance is pure loss for the shipping company.

61 points by howrude 8y ago

deleted 8y ago

[deleted]

“However, autonomy will play out very differently on the water than on land, and in many cases it won’t take humans off the ship—or entirely away from the controls. ... In the near term, it’s more likely that the helm will be controlled by an autonomous system or a remote human operator while a smaller crew takes care of the vessel.” Lots of different things rattling around in the ol’ promise of “autonomy.”

DamnYuppie 8y ago
I don't foresee this changing anything for ships. All modern vessels, both commercial and for pleasure, have auto pilots and they are used extensively. The primary job of a captain isn't to drive the vessel, it is to basically be a project manager ensuring that the vessel is running smoothly. This includes everything from crew schedules, maintenance schedules, supplies for the vessel, quality control of procedures, and on and on. The actual piloting is a very small part of what they do.

akira2501 8y ago

Several issues with this idea: 1) On the open ocean, what is there to even avoid? In the harbor, you often don't have a choice; the harbor master is going to _require_ you to pick up a harbor pilot who is rated and certified for the harbor you'll be in and they must be in command of the ships steering and propulsion in order for your ship to even enter their waters. 2) Only 20% of the global merchant fleet is dedicated to shipping. The two other major types of ships, tugs and passenger ships make up most of the rest and neither of these are exactly suited to this technology. 3) Over 50% of the ships in use right now are more than 15 years old. Yea, a new one is _only_ $200 million, but that washes over the real economic picture of ship ownership and maintenance and the likely market for this product. 4) Most ships are not giant Maersk style super-container ships, so staffing reductions aren't likely to be a huge win here, if at all. Ships already run with the _minimum_ crew necessary, usually determined by already established maritime laws and agreements. 5) Microphones and pictures are nice, but ships have actual radar; why not just use that and skip all the fancy "sensor fusion" and off-brand retrofitting?

madrox 8y ago
I get the impression you didn't actually read the article, as it addresses most of your questions.
- deleted 8y ago
  [deleted]
- akira2501 8y ago
  > as it addresses most of your questions. Vaguely suggesting that three different companies are separately attacking different parts of the problem in a very narrow area of the world with special permits and no collective breakdown of their efforts, their progress or their potential benefits didn't seem to effectively address anything nor does it support it's own headline. The headline was my main beef; but, we could get into the fact that the two most common maritime insurance claims are for weather damage and theft.. striking submerged objects is also a very common one, which is why harbors require skilled pilots with continual testing to bring boats in and out of those waters. I'm still very much suspicious of these "bolt-on" AI businesses and all the uncritical hype that surrounds them.
ehnto 8y ago
There are some ships, small sailing ships for example, that do not get picked up by radar. They often need to get radar reflectors fitted to be visible. You certainly wouldn't want to be on a sailing vessel while an automated cargo ship barrels down on you. Sailing ships get right of way to powered ships as well so detecting the difference between vessels is important and the automation would need to take that into account too. Although I am not sure how it actually plays out in practice. I somehow doubt a tanker is giving way to a cruising sail vessel once it is underway.
- akira2501 8y ago
  > Although I am not sure how it actually plays out in practice. There are exceptions, in established shipping (and a few other types of) channels, the sailboat does _not_ have right of way. Also, when sailboats are using their motors for power they are considered motorboats and the special right of way no longer applies. It is also very rare to see a sailboat under sail power in a harbor and large commercial ships are always manually piloted in a harbor.

itslennysfault 8y ago

Remember the movie Hackers when the DiVinci virus capsized those ships?

m0zg 8y ago

Can someone explain why there aren't that many autonomous _trains_? And I don't mean SFO airport train and others like it, but a real, full-size train moving people or goods around the country. Seems like every other year a train flies off the rails due to nothing more than negligence of train's engineer. Why not automate this completely? You don't even have to steer.

maxxxxx 8y ago
I wonder about that too. It seems a much simpler and constrained task than driving a car.
- topspin 8y ago
  > It seems a much simpler and constrained task than driving a car. It's not. Always assume that whatever limit can be exploited to maximize economic return is pursued to the maximum extent by everyone involved at nearly all times. If you do so you will be right more often than you are wrong. An occupation that is conceptually "easy" is made demanding through optimization. Heavy freight trains that navigate hilly or mountainous terrain can rip themselves apart when they are not operated with precision. Passenger train operators can be held to schedules where deviation in either direction is measured in seconds regardless of weather, faults, mistakes, uncooperative passengers, etc. When large amounts of capital are involved always assume that the expectations will be extraordinary and, therefore, difficult to automate.
deleted 8y ago
[deleted]
Chetan496 8y ago
Dockland light railway is completely automated. This train line is in London. I have travelled on it. There is no engine room or train driver. It felt interesting to sit in the very first train cabin which would usually be an engine room in other trains.
- isostatic 8y ago

philwelch 8y ago

> In the near term, it’s more likely that the helm will be controlled by an autonomous system or a remote human operator while a smaller crew takes care of the vessel. Hopefully the helm and navigation controls are governed by a secure, air-gapped connection; otherwise someone could hijack the signal and commandeer the ship remotely, and that would be the first case of actual internet piracy.

tirpen 8y ago
There has been experiments with GPS successful Spoofing attacks against ships, so even if it is airgapped, it's not 100% safe. https://insidegnss.com/gps-spoofing-experiment-knocks-ship-off-course/ https://insidegnss.com/gps-spoofing-experiment-knocks-ship-o...
- philwelch 8y ago
  Sure, but then they wouldn't be internet pirates, they would just be electronic pirates.
- Piskvorrr 8y ago
  Air gap is a metaphor dealing with system borders - if you have a fully trusted input, you don't have an air gap, even if that input comes in wirelessly.

blauditore 8y ago

I wonder if that's on purpose, but I interpreted the title as metaphorical first, thinking it was another dystopian fantasy about computers taking over the world.

kochikame 8y ago
No, not just you, exactly how I read it too
Slartie 8y ago
I went on a similar, but slightly different path. I thought it was an article not so much about a dystopian fantasy, but about the harsh (and in some ways also dystopian) reality of AI and ML systems not being "debuggable" and understandable by humans like traditional algorithmic systems had been, which effectively means that we can only reason about decisions of such systems to a very limited degree.
SenHeng 8y ago
I thought so but then I saw that it was forbes and quickly figured it was simply a pun and it probably refers to some kind of automated sailing system. I've only read the first paragraph of TFA and it looks like I was right.

masonic 8y ago

Hey, what could go wrong? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Ultimate_Computer https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Ultimate_Computer

yason 8y ago

I could see a potential with completely autonomous vessels that could sail for weeks/months on solar/wind power without any human presence. Crew would only board the ship when approaching a harbour, and steer her to the dock. Solar panels and wind turbines could generate electricity which would be stored in batteries and then used to drive electric motors propelling the ship. Slower than diesel but also cheaper and with less moving parts.

runeks 8y ago
> Solar panels and wind turbines could generate electricity which would be stored in batteries and then used to drive electric motors propelling the ship. I wonder what the efficiency of a wind turbine + engine would be compared to a sail. Ie. if the wind blows so a ship with a sail moves at 20 mph, how fast could the wind turbine + engine move it?
falcolas 8y ago
There’s also a lot of maintenance that goes on while the ship is out at sea - requiring crew members regardless of who is piloting the ship. Requiring a ship to go into drydock for routine maintenance is pure loss for the shipping company.