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"Remember that the EU is becoming less and less important over time as a financial services market, even the UK's financial services sector has become less depe
by jayalpha 8y ago
"Remember that the EU is becoming less and less important over time as a financial services market, even the UK's financial services sector has become less dependant on it over time."
Ah, no?
"The juicier fruit is in the rest of the world."
The world is limited.
a) USA. Very little taxes in trade with the EU already. Little to gain with FTA.
b) Canada? Okay, but the UK has this Free trade agreement (FTA) already via the EU.
c) Mersocur? FTA to be signed with the EU soon. Maybe Chile or Colombia could be a play.
d) Japan und Korea? Have FTAs with EU
e) India? Very demanding. Also want easier immigration to the UK in a FTA. Prediction: Will fail.
f) Australia? Ok, easy to get. Point for the UK
g) China? Possible. But only goods, since China loves to export goods. Financial services? Forget about it. Also, trust me, the Chinese have not forgotten the Opium war. Also the recent Ship of the Royal Navy in disputed waters did not help.
h) Africa. Many (economically) small countries. Not all countries have ties to the UK.
i) Russia/CIS. This the UK could get but this they don't want.
They earth is limited. They are leaving the biggest market in the world in hopes of greener pastures. Good luck!
- sonnyblarney 8y agoYour comments assume 'FTA' is the key ingredient in the equation - it is not. The UK is growing financial services exports in almost all of the markets you mentioned, so I don't really see what your point is there. [1] Third - the UK is not 'leaving' European markets, they are changing the terms of trade. Goods and services will continue to flow. (Thankfully, 'services' don't face the fundamental challenges that 'goods' do at the border outside of a customs union) The UK already exports as much financial services to the US as it does to the entire EU [2] and the underlying impetus is fundamentally in the rest of the world. Similar to your comment about Japan - the UK already exports quite a lot in financial services (3 billion pounds/year and growing). " Also, trust me, the Chinese have not forgotten the Opium war" No, I don't trust you. [1] https://colresearch.typepad.com/colresearch/2017/03/trends-and-growth-in-uk-financial-services-trade-.html https://colresearch.typepad.com/colresearch/2017/03/trends-a... [2] https://colresearch.typepad.com/colresearch/2016/08/how-important-is-uk-financial-services-trade-to-the-eu.html https://colresearch.typepad.com/colresearch/2016/08/how-impo...
- jayalpha 8y ago"The UK is growing financial services exports in almost all of the markets you mentioned, so I don't really see what your point is there." For serious financial services you need even more than a FTA. Something like passporting rights for the EU, that the UK will lose. And regarding to "financial services" China is very very closed. By chance I read today that China and Germany want to increase trade in "financial services". This really surprised me since China is playing so hard ball against opening this market. "(Thankfully, 'services' don't face the fundamental challenges that 'goods' do at the border outside of a customs union)" Yes. Right. Something like passporting rights, clearance allowance etc, you can just do this without a permit or reliance on another country. Good luck with the Brexit.