> It's much less probable to be right about both price and timing But that's priced into any analysis of the puts. If you're just arguing that speculation in g

> It's much less probable to be right about both price and timing But that's priced into any analysis of the puts. If you're just arguing that speculation in general isn't prudent, then I'm with you, but you can't really say that a particular bet would be a "terrible strategy" (if you mean that in a negative EV sense?) when we don't know what the prices will be.