6 ms·

The deal was the worst of all worlds and deliberately designed to fail. The whole project since the referendum has been to work towards the palatable introducti

by hanoz 8y ago

The deal was the worst of all worlds and deliberately designed to fail. The whole project since the referendum has been to work towards the palatable introduction of a second referendum whilst spending the intervening time demonstrating the impossibility of a good deal and the awfulness of no deal. We will now proceed to run down the clock towards the no deal 'cliff edge' and as the precipice looms go to the EU asking for an extension. The EU will say you can only have an extension for a second referendum, which we will hold and remain will win.

ivraatiems 8y ago
I read your post as quite confident, but a lot of people were equally confident that the original referendum would be a strong Remain victory. What are you basing these predictions on?
- jandrese 8y ago
  It seems like the second referendum will also fail if it still includes the "allow brown people into your country" part of being an EU member.
  - ivraatiems 8y ago
    Are there polls or other evidence supporting that?
    - jandrese 8y ago
      https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/29/frenzy-hatred-brexit-racism-abuse-referendum-celebratory-lasting-damage https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/29/frenzy-hatr... https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/06/25/the-uncomfortable-question-was-the-brexit-vote-based-on-racism/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/06/25... https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01419870.2017.1361544 https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01419870.2017.13... http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/10/09/race-class-and-brexit-how-did-we-get-here/ http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/10/09/race-class-and-brex... https://www.football365.com/news/brexit-and-re-emergence-of-racism-is-no-coincidence https://www.football365.com/news/brexit-and-re-emergence-of-... It's basically the same thing that got Donald Trump elected. An endless parade of stories about how foreigners are making your life worse and the government is bending over backwards for them while you are out of a job. Propaganda works. Lies you want to hear get votes. Nuance does not.
      - JetSetWilly 8y ago
        None of those articles constitutes evidence, they are just opinions of people wanting to push that line. In reality people voted brexit for very many reasons, seeking to dismiss it all as racism is just a lazy way to feel superior.
  - hardlianotion 8y ago
    That's pretty insulting to a major part of the population. I don't suppose you can justify your position?
  - pjc50 8y ago
    There is of course no rule in the EU obliging countries to accept non-EU immigrants. It's the "allow Poles into your country" that some Brits are unwilling to accept.
    - jandrese 8y ago
      That's not what people were told though. This is an incredible wedge issue and the fact that people seem to be surprised about it suggests that they aren't paying attention. It's no coincidence that the stories about "economic refugees" were all over the place before the referendum. I mean obviously people were leaving Syria because they just wanted to take your job, there's no other reason.
- Krasnol 8y ago
  I'd say mainly for those reasons: 1) It was quite an embarrassment for all those young people who did not vote and will suffer now 2) the actual results of a Brexit are known now while the bus-advertisement that was supposed to be the benefits of a Brexit are gone and have not been replaced by anything Also all those news about businesses reorienting towards Europe and away from UK, Ireland, people applying for EU countries citizenship and so on. The real results became real while the people who are still for a Brexit have shown their ugly faces. I'm pretty optimistic about the results of a second referendum. That's why the Brexiteers will never allow it.
ganeshkrishnan 8y ago
Absolutely this. The day brexit was being voted, I said I would eat my socks if brexit goes thru. The voters did vote for "leave" and my colleagues were wondering if I would really eat my socks. However, I told them this would never get passed thru the parliament. They will dilly dally, drag it along and dump it in the end saying it's too complicated. To solve any equation, just follow the money. Big business stand to lose a lot of money; therefore brexit won't happen.
- ohtwenty 8y ago
  Big money is already losing some money, AFAIK. I'm in Amsterdam and there's news every other week of a big company or organization moving to Amsterdam _already_, just in case brexit goes through.
- davman 8y ago
  !RemindMe 29 March 2019
graeme 8y ago
What deal would you have designed, and how would it have avoided a border in Ireland? Or, if you woulf have a border in Ireland, do you think all 52% of voters voted for that?
tim333 8y ago
Mrs May who is mostly responsible for the deal is not a fan of a second referendum. She also wasn't a fan of parliament being involved and would have just forced the deal through if she could have. If you prioritise controlling immigration which has been May's thing for a while, and keep the Good Friday Agreement then May's deal is what you get.

by hanoz 8y ago

ivraatiems 8y ago

I read your post as quite confident, but a lot of people were equally confident that the original referendum would be a strong Remain victory. What are you basing these predictions on?

jandrese 8y ago
It seems like the second referendum will also fail if it still includes the "allow brown people into your country" part of being an EU member.
- ivraatiems 8y ago
  Are there polls or other evidence supporting that?
  - jandrese 8y ago
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/29/frenzy-hatred-brexit-racism-abuse-referendum-celebratory-lasting-damage https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/29/frenzy-hatr... https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/06/25/the-uncomfortable-question-was-the-brexit-vote-based-on-racism/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/06/25... https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01419870.2017.1361544 https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01419870.2017.13... http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/10/09/race-class-and-brexit-how-did-we-get-here/ http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/10/09/race-class-and-brex... https://www.football365.com/news/brexit-and-re-emergence-of-racism-is-no-coincidence https://www.football365.com/news/brexit-and-re-emergence-of-... It's basically the same thing that got Donald Trump elected. An endless parade of stories about how foreigners are making your life worse and the government is bending over backwards for them while you are out of a job. Propaganda works. Lies you want to hear get votes. Nuance does not.
    - JetSetWilly 8y ago
      None of those articles constitutes evidence, they are just opinions of people wanting to push that line. In reality people voted brexit for very many reasons, seeking to dismiss it all as racism is just a lazy way to feel superior.
- hardlianotion 8y ago
  That's pretty insulting to a major part of the population. I don't suppose you can justify your position?
- pjc50 8y ago
  There is of course no rule in the EU obliging countries to accept non-EU immigrants. It's the "allow Poles into your country" that some Brits are unwilling to accept.
  - jandrese 8y ago
    That's not what people were told though. This is an incredible wedge issue and the fact that people seem to be surprised about it suggests that they aren't paying attention. It's no coincidence that the stories about "economic refugees" were all over the place before the referendum. I mean obviously people were leaving Syria because they just wanted to take your job, there's no other reason.
Krasnol 8y ago
I'd say mainly for those reasons: 1) It was quite an embarrassment for all those young people who did not vote and will suffer now 2) the actual results of a Brexit are known now while the bus-advertisement that was supposed to be the benefits of a Brexit are gone and have not been replaced by anything Also all those news about businesses reorienting towards Europe and away from UK, Ireland, people applying for EU countries citizenship and so on. The real results became real while the people who are still for a Brexit have shown their ugly faces. I'm pretty optimistic about the results of a second referendum. That's why the Brexiteers will never allow it.

ganeshkrishnan 8y ago

Absolutely this. The day brexit was being voted, I said I would eat my socks if brexit goes thru. The voters did vote for "leave" and my colleagues were wondering if I would really eat my socks. However, I told them this would never get passed thru the parliament. They will dilly dally, drag it along and dump it in the end saying it's too complicated. To solve any equation, just follow the money. Big business stand to lose a lot of money; therefore brexit won't happen.

ohtwenty 8y ago
Big money is already losing some money, AFAIK. I'm in Amsterdam and there's news every other week of a big company or organization moving to Amsterdam _already_, just in case brexit goes through.
davman 8y ago
!RemindMe 29 March 2019

graeme 8y ago

What deal would you have designed, and how would it have avoided a border in Ireland? Or, if you woulf have a border in Ireland, do you think all 52% of voters voted for that?

tim333 8y ago

Mrs May who is mostly responsible for the deal is not a fan of a second referendum. She also wasn't a fan of parliament being involved and would have just forced the deal through if she could have. If you prioritise controlling immigration which has been May's thing for a while, and keep the Good Friday Agreement then May's deal is what you get.