I tend to agree with your main point, but I'd be cautious about being so certain that the referendum would fail this time based on polling. The polls generally

I tend to agree with your main point, but I'd be cautious about being so certain that the referendum would fail this time based on polling. The polls generally overestimated remain last time around (see Polls of Polls, e.g. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Unit...)