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> they are trying to camouflage that reality with a bad deal They're not, May is, and May is not a Brexiter. The Brexiters generally are pushing to leave on WT
by mrec 8y ago
> they are trying to camouflage that reality with a bad deal
They're not, May is, and May is not a Brexiter. The Brexiters generally are pushing to leave on WTO terms, not so much as a preferred end state but in recognition of the fact that only a genuine commitment to doing so has any chance of convincing the EU to agree to sensible terms such as Canada+. If the EU can keep the UK under its thumb forever then of course it will, and it would be unreasonable to expect it to do otherwise.
- notahacker 8y agoIt stretches credulity beyond breaking point to suggest that the UK reneging on all its existing commitments to the EU in a fit of jingoistic pique whilst suffering the consequences of not having properly prepared for that outcome is a situation likely to lead to the EU offering more favourable trading terms.
- yholio 8y agoThere is no Canada+ on the table and there never was, it's just "Canada" without the "+": a set of trade liberalization measures that cover some physical goods and very few services. It's a bad match for Britain's needs: http://www.policyreview.co.uk/eu-uk-canada/ http://www.policyreview.co.uk/eu-uk-canada/ It's hard to understand why Germany or France, who stand to gain from excluding the powerful UK service sector from the EU financial markets, would think that adding the "plus" to a Canada type deal is a "sensible" thing. It's sensible only for the brexiteers who peddled Canada+ as a real thing. Never-mind the fact that, in order to export to the EU market, UK still needs to respect the EU regulations, like any other trade partner of the EU. Only now, they no longer have any say over those regulations.
- mrec 8y agoDonald Tusk has repeatedly offered "Canada +++" to Great Britain. (Not to the United Kingdom, as part of their "we're going to annex Northern Ireland as a punishment beating" approach.) > UK still needs to respect the EU regulations WHEN EXPORTING TO THE EU, yes. The ~90% of UK businesses that don't do any trade with the EU do not. Those trading with the rest of the world outside the EU - a majority of the UK's trade, and rising steadily - do not.
- thefounder 8y agoWhat makes the UK follow EU regulation when they export outside of EU?
- vkou 8y agoA five-hundred million person first-world market on their doorstep. If you want your business to say no to that, go ahead - by all means. Most businesses won't, though.
- rcxdude 8y agoMost industries which have any significant exports will aim to have their products comply with all requirements in all markets they are exporting to. Generally there is less to be gained by setting up seperate production for each market, even if some of them have more lax requirements, than there is by having one system which can address all markets (this breaks down if there are mutually exclusive requirements, which can cause a lot of pain).
- yholio 8y agoLet's clarify our terms: https://twitter.com/JamesERothwell/status/1047834295887384576 https://twitter.com/JamesERothwell/status/104783429588738457... EU's idea of Canada +++ is not the Brexiteers' Canada+++. EU's version just means no tariffs and some security co-operation, but nothing like as much access on services as EU membership. Sorry to be a bore but I don't think the Tusk tweet is something to go wild over
- notahacker 8y agoSo, just to clarify, you're arguing that Donald Tusk has offered exactly what you want (except - in the absence of viable alternative solutions - to Northern Ireland in order to honour existing bilateral agreements implying no new customs borders there). Do you think this offer is more or less likely to still exist if the UK insists that it doesn't need the EU's stinking trade, defaults on its financial obligations to the EU and enrages an Irish government with veto power over any hypothetical future deal by re-erecting customs borders with the north? (Even before considering the UK's ill-preparedness to attempt such a gambit means the direct short term consequences would hurt the country)
- OscarCunningham 8y ago> It's hard to understand why Germany or France, who stand to gain from excluding the powerful UK service sector from the EU financial markets No they don't. Germany and France contain consumers of services as well as providers.
- notahacker 8y agoConsumers of services for the most part couldn't care less whether the back end of their trades is carried out by the London, Paris or Frankfurt offices of HSBC or Deutsche Bank. On the other hand, it's a nice little boost to French or German politicians to be able to talk about financial services industry growth and have a bit more tax revenue to play with.
- jpster 8y agoI concur. One only need look within the number of companies who have opted to move offices to the Continent.
- roywiggins 8y agoThere's also the "small" problem of the NI border, which would require customs checks in a Canada-style deal, since you'd be leaving the customs union.
- sonnyblarney 8y agoThe gains that Germany and France will make in EU oriented financials services will pale in comparison to the loss of a major trading partner. Remember that the EU is becoming less and less important over time as a financial services market, even the UK's financial services sector has become less dependant on it over time. The juicier fruit is in the rest of the world. There's quite a lot of real trade between the EU-UK and that will hurt. The EU obviously stands to benefit from a pretty strong deal with it's closest 'non EU' partner. The reason we don't see it playing out so obviously I believe boils down to the other geopolitical factors at play - obviously there's a lot at play. In other words, if the UK were just now approaching the EU for some kind of participation, without the baggage of the current 'leave' environment, I think we'd see a Canada++ type deal develop.
- wbl 8y agoThere already was a customs union. It was called the EU.
- sonnyblarney 8y agoThe EU is far more than a 'customs union'. It's a political union, with an unelected Executive body, and a very powerful Supreme Court (Court of Justice), and so much more - that almost no European citizen ever voted for. Everyone is for trade, most are for open borders, very few for deep political integration. To the extent the elites push against the underlying sentiment - there will be problems. Such problems are clearly on the rise all over the EU in various incarnations, it'd be nice if the EU took this time of crisis to re-evaluate it's existence and reconsider a bunch of things.
- jpster 8y agoThe EU is quite popular among most of its other citizens. (Half) the UK citizenry was an outlier in that regard.
- sonnyblarney 8y ago
- whatupmd 8y ago"The Brexiters generally are pushing to leave on WTO terms" - to claim that there is a consensus amongst this lot is perhaps a stretch.
- wahern 8y agoWTO terms and the issue of Northern Ireland are fundamentally irreconcilable. So I'd say it's more than a stretch; it's outright inconsistent.
- accnumnplus1 8y agoExactly. I've been voted down for pointing that out. May is not a brexiter.
- peteretep 8y agoWhat does that even mean now though? May was not originally sold on Brexit. Since becoming PM, what evidence do you have that she is not absolutely committed to Brexit? She may not be a True Believer, but she's a human apparently 100% intent on Brexit.
- jinglebells 8y agoShe's all about immigration, otherwise she would have opted for CU/SM integration and called it a day.
- handzbagz 8y agoThat's about the only thing I think she actually believes in. You only need to look at her tenure at the Home Office to see that.