4 ms·
There's a confidence motion tomorrow evening at 7PM GMT. My understanding is, if the government loses a general election is triggered which takes a couple of mo
by humps 8y ago
There's a confidence motion tomorrow evening at 7PM GMT. My understanding is, if the government loses a general election is triggered which takes a couple of months. So a new government could be in place before March 29th. However, I think if a general election was to happen then all sides would agree to ask for an extension to Article 50 and allow a few extra months for the new government to decide what to do. Another caveat to that: one manifest pledge in the election may be a 2nd referendum. If that party won then the 2nd ref would become the focus.
- PaulRobinson 8y agoThe opposition is allowed to ask for up to 14 days to form a government. In this case, that's highly unlikely as it would require a broad referendum...
- ttul 8y agoThe betting odds show an 83% likelihood that the U.K. remains somehow after 3/29. There is a 40% chance of another general election this year (15% in 2020 and just 13% in 2021). I’d say odds are the confidence vote fails tomorrow and a general election is called, with a motion to extend article 50 until the election is held giving the people a chance to speak, albeit not via a referendum. Another referendum is not going to happen. Labour wants tories to hang themselves through the utter failure of Brexit. A referendum risks another Brexit approval or worse and gives the tories political cover for the whole mess.
- OscarCunningham 8y agoWhy would May call an election if the confidence vote fails?
- RugnirViking 8y agoWe could almost see the incredible position of an election neither party particularly wants to win.