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Don't fully understand UK government structure but is it possible for the labor party to take over leadership and revoke article 50 before the deadline?

by pkaye 8y ago

tunesmith 8y ago
Isn't the labor party also against revoking article 50? Corbyn at least? I thought it was only the liberal party that has been consistent in arguing for revoking it.
- SiempreViernes 8y ago
  brexit did win a referendum, which is probably the main reason labor has been cautious, but Corbyn himself isn’t a great fan of the EU, that’s true.
  - blibble 8y ago
    > Corbyn himself isn’t a great fan of the EU this is somewhat of an understatement he voted against its creation, and against every single transfer of power to it prior to being elected Labour leader he would denounce it at every possible opportunity (alongside his mentor Tony Benn)
- noir_lord 8y ago
  Corbyn is anti-EU, Labour is pro-EU, Corbyn is on record as saying it's a party matter and he will back the consensus. Which is why we have the hilarity of a pro-remain PM in charge of us leaving and a pro-leave opposition leader in charge of trying to get us to remain. UK politics is bonkers at the moment.
- cm2187 8y ago
  Like the conservatives, they are divided between remainers and brexiters. Which is why it is a political mess. Now the conservative party being in power, these divisions are showing wide open. But you have a similar division within Labour.
smacktoward 8y ago
The existing government would have to lose the confidence of a majority of the members of the House of Commons. Then there could be an election, and if Labour won that election, they could then take over. (See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motions_of_no_confidence_in_the_United_Kingdom https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motions_of_no_confidence_in_th...) So it's conceivable, but not without Labour managing to jump through a fair number of constitutional hoops first.
NeedMoreTea 8y ago
In the old days (pre 2011) the government would fall, and we'd be on the way to an election if Labour couldn't organise a minority government (and I seem to remember that was made subtly more difficult in the Act). See my comment here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18914244 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18914244 (That thread should probably be merged with this one) Governments are now 5 years, and surprisingly difficult to interrupt early thanks to the LibDem's Act during the coalition. Essentially the sitting party needs to commit suicide. The Tory manifesto promised to abolish the Fixed-term Parliaments Act. Funny they don't seem to see that as a priority at the moment! :D
humps 8y ago
There's a confidence motion tomorrow evening at 7PM GMT. My understanding is, if the government loses a general election is triggered which takes a couple of months. So a new government could be in place before March 29th. However, I think if a general election was to happen then all sides would agree to ask for an extension to Article 50 and allow a few extra months for the new government to decide what to do. Another caveat to that: one manifest pledge in the election may be a 2nd referendum. If that party won then the 2nd ref would become the focus.
- PaulRobinson 8y ago
  The opposition is allowed to ask for up to 14 days to form a government. In this case, that's highly unlikely as it would require a broad referendum...
- ttul 8y ago
  The betting odds show an 83% likelihood that the U.K. remains somehow after 3/29. There is a 40% chance of another general election this year (15% in 2020 and just 13% in 2021). I’d say odds are the confidence vote fails tomorrow and a general election is called, with a motion to extend article 50 until the election is held giving the people a chance to speak, albeit not via a referendum. Another referendum is not going to happen. Labour wants tories to hang themselves through the utter failure of Brexit. A referendum risks another Brexit approval or worse and gives the tories political cover for the whole mess.
  - OscarCunningham 8y ago
    Why would May call an election if the confidence vote fails?
  - RugnirViking 8y ago
    We could almost see the incredible position of an election neither party particularly wants to win.
ddebernardy 8y ago
It's possible Labor will take over if May loses her confidence vote. But Corbyn's current position has been that he'd pursue Brexit with unicorn promises, rather than cancel the whole thing like his constituents want him to do. So it's doubtful that Labor would revoke article 50. Just spitballing here... Methinks May will win her confidence vote tomorrow. From there, the consensus seems to be to steer towards a peoples' vote -- aka a new referendum -- in spite of May being hostile to that idea. But don't rule out some back and forth with the EU. May has a long way to go to win a rerun of this vote, but if her premiership is anything to go by she's resilient, and the GBP lost around 10% against the USD and EUR within minutes of the Commons vote. (Edit: the GDP seems to have bounced back since.) As an aside, I'm no fan of May, and the referendum campaign was full of lies and manipulation, but methinks May actually has merit in raising that a peoples' vote would not be good for the legitimacy of and trust in politicians and institutions. After all, what's the point of organizing a referendum and then electing representatives that don't deliver. And what's the point of organizing referendums if the powers that be will continue to ask the question again and again until constituents give the expected answer?
- atombender 8y ago
  Going through with Brexit will as damaging to elected representatives as canceling it. People have already lost faith in elected representatives. I don't think anyone is going to come out of this unscathed. The referendum uncovered a fault line in the nation — in the world, really — that needs to be processed. The wave of "yes" votes for Brexit mirror the features of the Trump election — anti-globalization, anti-intellectualism, anti-politics. Whether or not Brexit happens, the biggest problem the UK faces might be that it's opened the door to nationalist, reactionary, populist (in the modern sense), authoritarian forces of the same kind we're now seeing in Poland, Hungary, Italy, Brazil and other places.
  - tomp 8y ago
    You can be anti-globalization and intellectual.
    - 8y ago
arethuza 8y ago
The Labour party (at least it's leadership if not its MPs) are as pro-Brexit as the current government so even if we had another general election and Labour won (which seems unlikely) nothing would fundamentally change.
cryptonector 8y ago
Problem is: many labour MPs are from hard-brexit districts. Same thing for conservative MPs. In fact, the problem is that the electoral map of the UK is more hard-brexit than the popular vote, while the MPs from hard-brexit districts are mostly remainers. Remainer MPs from hard-brexit districts have contradictory and irreconcilable motivations: they want the UK to remain in the EU, but they want to remain MPs. If at the end of the day the UK does not exit the EU, those MPs will lose their seats -- that's a lose-lose for them. If the UK manages to exit the EU, those MPs have a fighting chance to be reelected. So right now Parliament wants to rescind the Article 50 invocation, but can't bring itself to say so. The best they can do without massive upheaval in the next general election is to either order a second referendum, or request a delay in exiting. And those two options only if a) the Speaker allows them (he has been allowing remainer motions that the parliamentarian has ruled out of order, so the Speaker might indeed continue to do so), b) the PM accedes or c) Parliament impeaches her. (c) hasn't happened in centuries, and (b) might not happen (but I wouldn't hazard a prediction). A successful vote of no confidence would not work: first there would have to be a new general election and a new government, which might not yield a remain result (the electoral map is hard for brexit). Hope that makes the situation clearer, but! I am not a subject of the crown, so take this with a lot of salt.
- RugnirViking 8y ago
  note that you say a potential election might not yield a remain result - in fact I would suggest that it will certainly not. Even if every remain voting constituency somehow formed a government (impossible with even just SNP and Labour tensions), it would not be close to enough seats to form a government.
  - cryptonector 8y ago
    And the district boundaries got redrawn, and the new districts are a bit more favorable to the tories, so I think the chances of a Labour win in the next GE are only good if the tories commit electoral suicide (which, of course, they might), even assuming SNP aligns with labour (which, as you say, is not a given).

Don't fully understand UK government structure but is it possible for the labor party to take over leadership and revoke article 50 before the deadline?

by pkaye 8y ago

Don't fully understand UK government structure but is it possible for the labor party to take over leadership and revoke article 50 before the deadline?

tunesmith 8y ago

Isn't the labor party also against revoking article 50? Corbyn at least? I thought it was only the liberal party that has been consistent in arguing for revoking it.

SiempreViernes 8y ago
brexit did win a referendum, which is probably the main reason labor has been cautious, but Corbyn himself isn’t a great fan of the EU, that’s true.
- blibble 8y ago
  > Corbyn himself isn’t a great fan of the EU this is somewhat of an understatement he voted against its creation, and against every single transfer of power to it prior to being elected Labour leader he would denounce it at every possible opportunity (alongside his mentor Tony Benn)
noir_lord 8y ago
Corbyn is anti-EU, Labour is pro-EU, Corbyn is on record as saying it's a party matter and he will back the consensus. Which is why we have the hilarity of a pro-remain PM in charge of us leaving and a pro-leave opposition leader in charge of trying to get us to remain. UK politics is bonkers at the moment.
cm2187 8y ago
Like the conservatives, they are divided between remainers and brexiters. Which is why it is a political mess. Now the conservative party being in power, these divisions are showing wide open. But you have a similar division within Labour.

smacktoward 8y ago

The existing government would have to lose the confidence of a majority of the members of the House of Commons. Then there could be an election, and if Labour won that election, they could then take over. (See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motions_of_no_confidence_in_the_United_Kingdom https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motions_of_no_confidence_in_th...) So it's conceivable, but not without Labour managing to jump through a fair number of constitutional hoops first.

NeedMoreTea 8y ago

In the old days (pre 2011) the government would fall, and we'd be on the way to an election if Labour couldn't organise a minority government (and I seem to remember that was made subtly more difficult in the Act). See my comment here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18914244 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18914244 (That thread should probably be merged with this one) Governments are now 5 years, and surprisingly difficult to interrupt early thanks to the LibDem's Act during the coalition. Essentially the sitting party needs to commit suicide. The Tory manifesto promised to abolish the Fixed-term Parliaments Act. Funny they don't seem to see that as a priority at the moment! :D

humps 8y ago

There's a confidence motion tomorrow evening at 7PM GMT. My understanding is, if the government loses a general election is triggered which takes a couple of months. So a new government could be in place before March 29th. However, I think if a general election was to happen then all sides would agree to ask for an extension to Article 50 and allow a few extra months for the new government to decide what to do. Another caveat to that: one manifest pledge in the election may be a 2nd referendum. If that party won then the 2nd ref would become the focus.

PaulRobinson 8y ago
The opposition is allowed to ask for up to 14 days to form a government. In this case, that's highly unlikely as it would require a broad referendum...
ttul 8y ago
The betting odds show an 83% likelihood that the U.K. remains somehow after 3/29. There is a 40% chance of another general election this year (15% in 2020 and just 13% in 2021). I’d say odds are the confidence vote fails tomorrow and a general election is called, with a motion to extend article 50 until the election is held giving the people a chance to speak, albeit not via a referendum. Another referendum is not going to happen. Labour wants tories to hang themselves through the utter failure of Brexit. A referendum risks another Brexit approval or worse and gives the tories political cover for the whole mess.
- OscarCunningham 8y ago
  Why would May call an election if the confidence vote fails?
- RugnirViking 8y ago
  We could almost see the incredible position of an election neither party particularly wants to win.

ddebernardy 8y ago

It's possible Labor will take over if May loses her confidence vote. But Corbyn's current position has been that he'd pursue Brexit with unicorn promises, rather than cancel the whole thing like his constituents want him to do. So it's doubtful that Labor would revoke article 50. Just spitballing here... Methinks May will win her confidence vote tomorrow. From there, the consensus seems to be to steer towards a peoples' vote -- aka a new referendum -- in spite of May being hostile to that idea. But don't rule out some back and forth with the EU. May has a long way to go to win a rerun of this vote, but if her premiership is anything to go by she's resilient, and the GBP lost around 10% against the USD and EUR within minutes of the Commons vote. (Edit: the GDP seems to have bounced back since.) As an aside, I'm no fan of May, and the referendum campaign was full of lies and manipulation, but methinks May actually has merit in raising that a peoples' vote would not be good for the legitimacy of and trust in politicians and institutions. After all, what's the point of organizing a referendum and then electing representatives that don't deliver. And what's the point of organizing referendums if the powers that be will continue to ask the question again and again until constituents give the expected answer?

atombender 8y ago
Going through with Brexit will as damaging to elected representatives as canceling it. People have already lost faith in elected representatives. I don't think anyone is going to come out of this unscathed. The referendum uncovered a fault line in the nation — in the world, really — that needs to be processed. The wave of "yes" votes for Brexit mirror the features of the Trump election — anti-globalization, anti-intellectualism, anti-politics. Whether or not Brexit happens, the biggest problem the UK faces might be that it's opened the door to nationalist, reactionary, populist (in the modern sense), authoritarian forces of the same kind we're now seeing in Poland, Hungary, Italy, Brazil and other places.
- tomp 8y ago
  You can be anti-globalization and intellectual.
  - 8y ago

arethuza 8y ago

The Labour party (at least it's leadership if not its MPs) are as pro-Brexit as the current government so even if we had another general election and Labour won (which seems unlikely) nothing would fundamentally change.

cryptonector 8y ago

Problem is: many labour MPs are from hard-brexit districts. Same thing for conservative MPs. In fact, the problem is that the electoral map of the UK is more hard-brexit than the popular vote, while the MPs from hard-brexit districts are mostly remainers. Remainer MPs from hard-brexit districts have contradictory and irreconcilable motivations: they want the UK to remain in the EU, but they want to remain MPs. If at the end of the day the UK does not exit the EU, those MPs will lose their seats -- that's a lose-lose for them. If the UK manages to exit the EU, those MPs have a fighting chance to be reelected. So right now Parliament wants to rescind the Article 50 invocation, but can't bring itself to say so. The best they can do without massive upheaval in the next general election is to either order a second referendum, or request a delay in exiting. And those two options only if a) the Speaker allows them (he has been allowing remainer motions that the parliamentarian has ruled out of order, so the Speaker might indeed continue to do so), b) the PM accedes or c) Parliament impeaches her. (c) hasn't happened in centuries, and (b) might not happen (but I wouldn't hazard a prediction). A successful vote of no confidence would not work: first there would have to be a new general election and a new government, which might not yield a remain result (the electoral map is hard for brexit). Hope that makes the situation clearer, but! I am not a subject of the crown, so take this with a lot of salt.

RugnirViking 8y ago
note that you say a potential election might not yield a remain result - in fact I would suggest that it will certainly not. Even if every remain voting constituency somehow formed a government (impossible with even just SNP and Labour tensions), it would not be close to enough seats to form a government.
- cryptonector 8y ago
  And the district boundaries got redrawn, and the new districts are a bit more favorable to the tories, so I think the chances of a Labour win in the next GE are only good if the tories commit electoral suicide (which, of course, they might), even assuming SNP aligns with labour (which, as you say, is not a given).