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I have conflicting thoughts on this. In the US, it's true that in the near term regulations are likely to get more, rather than less onerous at the local and st
by the_watcher 8y ago
I have conflicting thoughts on this. In the US, it's true that in the near term regulations are likely to get more, rather than less onerous at the local and state level. At the federal level, I don't anticipate any changes in either direction until at least 2020, but probably longer, as this is the kind of issue that is generally hyperlocal as opposed to splitting entirely on party lines (the cynical view is that it's prone to capture).
That said, Airbnb's most promising growth opportunities aren't in the US in my opinion, they're international. While there's always a risk of regulation, the world is huge and has a lot of places who'd love to be this year's Iceland (although they might regret that 5 years from now) driven by cheap flights and/or housing.
Also - a slowdown could be counterintuitively good for Airbnb, as constituents may start lobbying to relax some of the more onerous regulations so that they can more easily make money via Airbnb (regardless of the accuracy, it can easily be cast as the hotel lobby vs. the recently unemployed family who has a room he wants to rent out).
Ultimately, I guess my position is that it's almost definitely overvalued right now, but not by as much as bears think it is and that I think they can probably remain a good business for the foreseeable future assuming good leadership.
- toomuchtodo 8y agoThe places where Airbnb has left to grow are more likely to enact legislation restricting their operation. The low hanging fruit is already picked.
- the_watcher 8y agoI disagree with this completely, but I'll admit that reasonable people can disagree about that.
- opportune 8y agoHighly disagree, I see Airbnb growing massively in the developing world as local safety+tourism infrastructure, desire to travel there, and internet familiarity/enough English to make a listing among those living there increase in the next 10-20 years. Of course, Airbnb is already big in places like Bali, but over time I see essentially all areas of Indonesia, Malaysia, Ecuador etc. becoming vacation destinations
- deleted 8y ago[deleted]