2 ms·
This thesis ( https://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/handle/2027.42/63676/rkruckeb_1.pdf?sequence=1 https://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/handle/2027.42/63
by caf 8y ago
This thesis ( https://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/handle/2027.42/63676/rkruckeb_1.pdf?sequence=1 https://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/handle/2027.42/6367... ) on page 111 has some of the details.
The bonds had already been defaulted on, so they were valueless apart from their ability to be converted into lottery tickets. They went around and bought up most of the defaulted bonds cheaply, which they were able to do because most of the bondholders apparently didn't trust the municipal government or their lottery and were not keen to throw further good money after bad, even though the math indicated it was a winning investment.
Then they just entered the lottery as many times as they could each drawing. The total payout was the total of the purchased tickets plus the 500,000 livres overlay provided by the Government, so their expected value was strongly positive each drawing.
So I don't think there was really a flaw in the lottery at all. The Government expected to lose 500,000 livres each drawing, the only people leaving value on the floor here were the bondholders who sold their defaulted bonds to Voltaire, La Condamine and their mates rather than enter the lotteries themselves.