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> To get to 355, the Navy’s 2019 ship-building plan proposes an eventual composition of 12 aircraft carriers, 12 ballistic-missile submarines, 66 attack submari

> To get to 355, the Navy’s 2019 ship-building plan proposes an eventual composition of 12 aircraft carriers, 12 ballistic-missile submarines, 66 attack submarines, 104 large surface combatants, 52 small surface combatants, 38 amphibious warfare ships, and 71 combat logistics and support ships. Wow. For comparison[0], China has 129 ships and Russia has 79. I guess the US Navy believes in overprovisioning. [0] https://nationalinterest.org/feature/the-five-most-powerful-navies-the-planet-10610 https://nationalinterest.org/feature/the-five-most-powerful-...

tivert 8y ago
I think you're making a mistake by comparing planned future fleet goals of one navy to current fleet numbers of other navies. It seems harder than a quick Google search to find good numbers (e.g. the wikipedia article seems to count inactive obsolete reserve ships in its total for the USN), it seems like China has 328 ships (on an upward trend) and the USN has 280 ships (on a downward trend) [1], but obviously it's a difficult comparison because the US has more aircraft carriers, etc. [1] https://www.lawfareblog.com/end-us-naval-dominance-asia https://www.lawfareblog.com/end-us-naval-dominance-asia: > In early 2017, the Chinese Navy had 328 ships. It now possesses nearly 350 ships and is already larger than the U.S. Navy. China is the largest ship-producing country in the world and at current production rates could soon operate 400 ships. It commissions nearly three submarines each year, and in two years will have more than 70 in its fleet. The Chinese Navy also operates growing numbers of cruisers, destroyers, frigates, and corvettes, all equipped with long-range anti-ship cruise missiles. Between 2013 and 2016, China commissioned more than 30 modern corvettes. At current rates, China could have 430 surface ships and 100 submarines within the next 15 years. > Despite the growth of the Chinese Navy, the United States retains maritime superiority throughout East Asia. But the trend is what matters and the trend is less rosy. In early 2018, the size of the active U.S. fleet was 280 ships. Going forward, according to the Congressional Budget Office, if the Navy’s budget is the average of its budget over the prior 30 years in real dollars and it maintains its aircraft carrier and ballistic submarine construction schedules, in 12 years the active naval fleet will decline to 237 ships. In six years, the U.S. submarine fleet will decline to 48 ships, and in eleven years the number of U.S. attack submarines will decline to 41 ships.
ceejayoz 8y ago
China and Russia aren't really playing the same "world policeman" role the US Navy is tasked with. We're more over-missioned than over-provisioned.
- coenhyde 8y ago
  "tasked with". That role was assumed, not given. Anyway yeah I bet you could cut back foreign power projection activities by at least a third and have stronger power projection as a result by concentrating effort. The US has ~800 military bases around the world. That's got to cost a LOT to maintain.
  - gaius 8y ago
    The US Navy was tasked by the civilian government.
    - coenhyde 8y ago
      But not by the world, which is what I was referring to. Since the role attributed was "world policeman". My point is that the "world policeman" responsibilities are an easy justification for a military posture which is very aggressive. If the world needed a world policeman we'd create an institution and have governance projected from that... oh hang on that's the UN.
twic 8y ago
Reminds me of the UK's attempt to maintain the two-power standard, whereby the Royal Navy had to be big enough to fight the next two biggest navies at the same time: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Royal_Navy#Two-power_standard https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Royal_Navy#Two-...
- mattmanser 8y ago
  Something they'd done for almost a century already, just to put it in context.
stcredzero 8y ago
Wow. For comparison[0], China has 129 ships and Russia has 79. I guess the US Navy believes in overprovisioning. The long standing US policy has been to maintain enough force to fight a major conflict in both the Atlantic and Pacific at the same time. It's basically what the British Navy was designed to do, when Britannia ruled the waves and had a globe spanning empire. The Brits basically went broke doing this and mortgaged their position as world hegemon to the US to pay for WWI and WWII. So now, the US has to maintain enough force to patrol the world's navies. (Between WWI and WWII, there was serious talk about the US and British navy duking it out over the issue of the British war debt to the US. There were even naval war plans drafted.)
- alexhutcheson 8y ago
  Including a detailed plan for the invasion and annexation of Canada: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_Plan_Red https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_Plan_Red

tivert 8y ago

I think you're making a mistake by comparing planned future fleet goals of one navy to current fleet numbers of other navies. It seems harder than a quick Google search to find good numbers (e.g. the wikipedia article seems to count inactive obsolete reserve ships in its total for the USN), it seems like China has 328 ships (on an upward trend) and the USN has 280 ships (on a downward trend) [1], but obviously it's a difficult comparison because the US has more aircraft carriers, etc. [1] https://www.lawfareblog.com/end-us-naval-dominance-asia https://www.lawfareblog.com/end-us-naval-dominance-asia: > In early 2017, the Chinese Navy had 328 ships. It now possesses nearly 350 ships and is already larger than the U.S. Navy. China is the largest ship-producing country in the world and at current production rates could soon operate 400 ships. It commissions nearly three submarines each year, and in two years will have more than 70 in its fleet. The Chinese Navy also operates growing numbers of cruisers, destroyers, frigates, and corvettes, all equipped with long-range anti-ship cruise missiles. Between 2013 and 2016, China commissioned more than 30 modern corvettes. At current rates, China could have 430 surface ships and 100 submarines within the next 15 years. > Despite the growth of the Chinese Navy, the United States retains maritime superiority throughout East Asia. But the trend is what matters and the trend is less rosy. In early 2018, the size of the active U.S. fleet was 280 ships. Going forward, according to the Congressional Budget Office, if the Navy’s budget is the average of its budget over the prior 30 years in real dollars and it maintains its aircraft carrier and ballistic submarine construction schedules, in 12 years the active naval fleet will decline to 237 ships. In six years, the U.S. submarine fleet will decline to 48 ships, and in eleven years the number of U.S. attack submarines will decline to 41 ships.

ceejayoz 8y ago

China and Russia aren't really playing the same "world policeman" role the US Navy is tasked with. We're more over-missioned than over-provisioned.

coenhyde 8y ago
"tasked with". That role was assumed, not given. Anyway yeah I bet you could cut back foreign power projection activities by at least a third and have stronger power projection as a result by concentrating effort. The US has ~800 military bases around the world. That's got to cost a LOT to maintain.
- gaius 8y ago
  The US Navy was tasked by the civilian government.
  - coenhyde 8y ago
    But not by the world, which is what I was referring to. Since the role attributed was "world policeman". My point is that the "world policeman" responsibilities are an easy justification for a military posture which is very aggressive. If the world needed a world policeman we'd create an institution and have governance projected from that... oh hang on that's the UN.

twic 8y ago

Reminds me of the UK's attempt to maintain the two-power standard, whereby the Royal Navy had to be big enough to fight the next two biggest navies at the same time: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Royal_Navy#Two-power_standard https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Royal_Navy#Two-...

mattmanser 8y ago
Something they'd done for almost a century already, just to put it in context.

stcredzero 8y ago

Wow. For comparison[0], China has 129 ships and Russia has 79. I guess the US Navy believes in overprovisioning. The long standing US policy has been to maintain enough force to fight a major conflict in both the Atlantic and Pacific at the same time. It's basically what the British Navy was designed to do, when Britannia ruled the waves and had a globe spanning empire. The Brits basically went broke doing this and mortgaged their position as world hegemon to the US to pay for WWI and WWII. So now, the US has to maintain enough force to patrol the world's navies. (Between WWI and WWII, there was serious talk about the US and British navy duking it out over the issue of the British war debt to the US. There were even naval war plans drafted.)

alexhutcheson 8y ago
Including a detailed plan for the invasion and annexation of Canada: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_Plan_Red https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_Plan_Red