10 ms·

The maturing of the smartphone industry is cause for celebration

43 points by hvo 8y ago

jonquark 8y ago
There is a related story: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18895064 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18895064 I think (as I said in the previous discussion) that the key issue with the lengthening phone upgrade cycle is security patches. Manufacturers are trying very hard to have built-in obsolescence: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/05/31/dutch_court_says_samsung_has_no_obligation_to_keep_old_phones_patched/ https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/05/31/dutch_court_says_sa... Unless this fundamentally changes, most non-techy users will have to needlessly upgrade perfectly good devices, run insecure software or become much more savvy about which manufacturers are better in this regard - and the outcome is likely to be some malware has a very large distribution followed by a lot of press.
- criddell 8y ago
  I think regulations around mandatory support periods should be set for the entire EU rather than on a country-by-country basis. They were arguing for four years and that seems too short. It would be nice if they could set the mandatory support period to the same length as the patent protection period. If Samsung thinks four years of support is enough, than the patented technologies in the phone should only get four years of protection.
- flukus 8y ago
  > Manufacturers are trying very hard to have built-in obsolescence This would be a golden opportunity for a manufacturer to come out with a promised 5+ year support cycle. I think one of the reason they don't is because each manufacturer has 78 slightly different models every year to support, but in a maturing market they should have a better idea on what the market wants and cut that down. Why does know one learn the limited SKUs lesson from apple? In that respect the Librem phone is arriving at almost the perfect time, it's close to PC levels of supportability.
  - megaman8 8y ago
    Yup, I totally want that. I want a phone that will last 5 years or longer... ideally about 10 years, like the old ones used to.
    - LyndsySimon 8y ago
      The "old ones" were fundamentally different devices, though...
  - SketchySeaBeast 8y ago
    > Why does no one learn the limited SKUs lesson from apple? I think even Apple has forgotten that lesson.
  - fitzroy 8y ago
    I have an iPhone 6 Plus that's going on 4.5 years old and it's doing fine (better than last year even with iOS 12), save a temperamental ring/vibrate switch. I recently sold my 4s that was in a drawer (about 7 years old at the time) and it also worked fine.
  - ako 8y ago
    My iPhone 5 from 2013 is still in daily use, typing this message on an iPad 3 from 2012, on my desk is an iMac from 2008. If you are careful, these product will last a long time. No need to replace every 2-3 years.
- MrRadar 8y ago
  This is one of the reasons I'm looking forward to the Purism Librem 5. Running essentially standard GNU/Linux with mainline kernel drivers for all the peripherals means you're not dependent on any one entity to provide security updates.
  - penguat 8y ago
    For your average consumer, this is probably a bad thing.
whytaka 8y ago
I wish high-end manufacturers like Apple will take the opportunity here and further minimize the environmental and social externalities to justify a premium price. I'm happy to pay a premium for high-end quality, especially if I don't have to feel guilty about it.
- crazygringo 8y ago
  Which externalities exactly? With battery replacements and iOS upgrades improving performance, it seems like nobody has done more than Apple here, and indeed their stock price is even suffering for it. What more are you looking for, honestly?
  - ndnxhs 8y ago
    The end of marketing phones as fashion devices. Phones should be seen as tools and they should be expected to last about 8-10 years. There is no reason they can't other than apple and the rest make a lot of money on people throwing out working phones to stay on trend.
    - wufufufu 8y ago
      Ok, should we end the marketing of cars as fashion devices? So many things could be seen as utility rather than fashion and yet here I am overpaying for tacos in the hipster part of town. Someone is going to do it and make a lot of money, I'd prefer it to be the company that isn't actually an advertisement company pretending to be a phone manufacturer.
      - ndnxhs 8y ago
        Yes, the economic incentives of the world are totally fucked. Do not mistake what we have currently for the best situation or acceptable. What apple and almost every phone company does is immoral and completely unacceptable.
        jayko 8y ago
tramGG 8y ago
It comes down to innovation. I bought iPhones because they were innovative. People aren't buying new phones because there is little marginal utility in upgrading anymore. We can break the innovation opportunities down into several areas: 1. Hardware 2. Operating System 3. Software/Apps Hardware hasn't been innovated. The closest thing we got was the hope of a modular phone that was bought for the patents (?) and killed inside of google. The best thing we get is better cameras, biometrics, and screen resolution. Not many people care about cameras (not including selfies), biometrics is sort of a lame duck (who needs their face constantly scanned? or fingerprints as passwords for everything), screen resolution doesn't anymore because the screen size is so small -- majority of people play easy games, like LoL, PUBG, and Candy Crush clones. Operating system experience is converging on features between iOS/Android to the point they are really indistinguishable. Software is limited because of hardware specs, walled gardens, and the learning curve -- but much more nefariously I software devs might just be afraid if they build something cool these companies would just turn around and steal it/bake it into the OS. Alternatively we could see adoption start moving horizontal into other peripherals like VR/AR/IoT devices (watches) -- but I'm not holding my breath on that until I see a company come out with something amazing. For instance the precursor to the iPhone was the Samsung i300, the leap from the i300 to the iPhone wasn't that big for me, but it changed a lot of things that just made sense. The leap for peripherals right now would be too great to expect a magical turnaround in adoption -- but I would love to be first in line to be proven wrong. So where does that leave us? Well we need to rethink things from the ground up again. We've hit local maxima with experience.
- taurath 8y ago
  I think we need people who have been thinking natively about these devices to think of ways they can actually improve our lives, instead of the people who are still used to thinking of it as a feature sheet and expecting to just strap the newest hardware in. Most of that needs to come at the OS level.
- LyndsySimon 8y ago
  > The leap for peripherals right now would be too great to expect a magical turnaround in adoption -- but I would love to be first in line to be proven wrong. I have a feeling that Apple forcing the move to AirPods is laying the groundwork for that. I would love an iPad that was just a battery and a screen, that connected wirelessly to my phone for processing. Likewise, I'd be interested in a laptop that did the same - but it has to be wireless, and the phone's battery would have to be at least two or three times the capacity of the iPhone X.
nostromo 8y ago
I'm very optimistic that Apple is going to be forced to innovate outside of the iPhone for the first time in many years. Mac users: rejoice!
irrational 8y ago
Is it mature, or has all the low hanging fruit been plucked? I want things like a phone that I can set on a flat surface and it will project a large monitor view onto a white wall and also project a holographic(?) keyboard in front of the phone that I can type on (I'm not expecting to feel the keyboard since it is just light - but when I hit the A "key" it should type an A). I want a battery that lasts a week. I want a wired headphone jack. I want it to be fully waterproof. Etc.
- et2o 8y ago
  I want a laptop dock for my iPhone!
  - spiznnx 8y ago
    Like Samsung dex?
- taurath 8y ago
  Personal devices need to focus harder on actually improving people’s lives rather than their time using the devices. All these antipatterns that arise from the overuse of information can be solved with the right focus.
  - butlerian_jihad 8y ago
    perhaps a radically new approach is required. machines should serve us, not we them.
- darawk 8y ago
  > Is it mature, or has all the low hanging fruit been plucked? Aren't those things the same thing?
- wodenokoto 8y ago
  I think it is safe to say that laptops are a mature market, and they can't do any of that either, except for the headphone jack. So how does those dreamy claims make the market immature?
CapitalistCartr 8y ago
Phones still have a long way to go. They have all the corporate controls PCs don't, because corporations missed that boat. I want a removable battery, micro-SD slot, audio jack, and control over the OS/interface comparable to my desktop. I don't give a crap about shaving a millimeter off the thickness, or 3 grams of weight. And I'm one who trims my backpack straps extra short.
- charlysl 8y ago
  Granted: buy Android.
  - ahartmetz 8y ago
    Except for the non-crippled software part, even with LineageOS or similar. A desktop OS has a lot of software infrastructure that Android doesn't have.
zepto 8y ago
Apple has a stated goal of increasing the usable life of iphones. These people need to realize it’s strategic. http://www.asymco.com/2018/09/13/lasts-longer/ http://www.asymco.com/2018/09/13/lasts-longer/
smileypete 8y ago
Apple phones are relatively standard hardware with good software and a (unjustifiably?) high price tag. So it should be no surprise that they last the same as other phones with similarly standard hardware (but considerably lower prices). Nevertheless some Apple owners choose to ignore this or do not appreciate it being pointed out. :)
- dasmoth 8y ago
  Apple phones are relatively standard hardware with good software and a (unjustifiably?) high price tag. In some ways, I wish this were the case. But my reading is that Apple's custom processors are still far ahead of the competition, and last time I looked it was hard to match Apple's fit and finish, especially if you are looking at anything other than the very top of the Android market. And for something that you keep in your pocket and handle regularly, a feeling of solidity is worth something. It's a tragedy that you can't buy an iPhone with an unlocked bootloader. There's some interesting potential for innovation there. (This is even more true in some other market segments. The hardware for the last couple of generations of Apple Watch is amazing, and that makes OS-imposed limits on what third party apps can do tragic).
  - smileypete 8y ago
    The A12 is peerless I admit, and a good 4-6 months ahead of the rest of the market. It's a shame that Huawei phones can no longer be unlocked too, part of a trend towards dumbed down consumption devices I suppose.

43 points by hvo 8y ago

There is a related story: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18895064 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18895064 I think (as I said in the previous discussion) that the key issue with the lengthening phone upgrade cycle is security patches. Manufacturers are trying very hard to have built-in obsolescence: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/05/31/dutch_court_says_samsung_has_no_obligation_to_keep_old_phones_patched/ https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/05/31/dutch_court_says_sa... Unless this fundamentally changes, most non-techy users will have to needlessly upgrade perfectly good devices, run insecure software or become much more savvy about which manufacturers are better in this regard - and the outcome is likely to be some malware has a very large distribution followed by a lot of press.

criddell 8y ago
I think regulations around mandatory support periods should be set for the entire EU rather than on a country-by-country basis. They were arguing for four years and that seems too short. It would be nice if they could set the mandatory support period to the same length as the patent protection period. If Samsung thinks four years of support is enough, than the patented technologies in the phone should only get four years of protection.
flukus 8y ago
> Manufacturers are trying very hard to have built-in obsolescence This would be a golden opportunity for a manufacturer to come out with a promised 5+ year support cycle. I think one of the reason they don't is because each manufacturer has 78 slightly different models every year to support, but in a maturing market they should have a better idea on what the market wants and cut that down. Why does know one learn the limited SKUs lesson from apple? In that respect the Librem phone is arriving at almost the perfect time, it's close to PC levels of supportability.
- megaman8 8y ago
  Yup, I totally want that. I want a phone that will last 5 years or longer... ideally about 10 years, like the old ones used to.
  - LyndsySimon 8y ago
    The "old ones" were fundamentally different devices, though...
- SketchySeaBeast 8y ago
  > Why does no one learn the limited SKUs lesson from apple? I think even Apple has forgotten that lesson.
- fitzroy 8y ago
  I have an iPhone 6 Plus that's going on 4.5 years old and it's doing fine (better than last year even with iOS 12), save a temperamental ring/vibrate switch. I recently sold my 4s that was in a drawer (about 7 years old at the time) and it also worked fine.
- ako 8y ago
  My iPhone 5 from 2013 is still in daily use, typing this message on an iPad 3 from 2012, on my desk is an iMac from 2008. If you are careful, these product will last a long time. No need to replace every 2-3 years.
MrRadar 8y ago
This is one of the reasons I'm looking forward to the Purism Librem 5. Running essentially standard GNU/Linux with mainline kernel drivers for all the peripherals means you're not dependent on any one entity to provide security updates.
- penguat 8y ago
  For your average consumer, this is probably a bad thing.

whytaka 8y ago

I wish high-end manufacturers like Apple will take the opportunity here and further minimize the environmental and social externalities to justify a premium price. I'm happy to pay a premium for high-end quality, especially if I don't have to feel guilty about it.

crazygringo 8y ago
Which externalities exactly? With battery replacements and iOS upgrades improving performance, it seems like nobody has done more than Apple here, and indeed their stock price is even suffering for it. What more are you looking for, honestly?
- ndnxhs 8y ago
  The end of marketing phones as fashion devices. Phones should be seen as tools and they should be expected to last about 8-10 years. There is no reason they can't other than apple and the rest make a lot of money on people throwing out working phones to stay on trend.
  - wufufufu 8y ago
    Ok, should we end the marketing of cars as fashion devices? So many things could be seen as utility rather than fashion and yet here I am overpaying for tacos in the hipster part of town. Someone is going to do it and make a lot of money, I'd prefer it to be the company that isn't actually an advertisement company pretending to be a phone manufacturer.
    - ndnxhs 8y ago
      Yes, the economic incentives of the world are totally fucked. Do not mistake what we have currently for the best situation or acceptable. What apple and almost every phone company does is immoral and completely unacceptable.
      - jayko 8y ago

tramGG 8y ago

It comes down to innovation. I bought iPhones because they were innovative. People aren't buying new phones because there is little marginal utility in upgrading anymore. We can break the innovation opportunities down into several areas: 1. Hardware 2. Operating System 3. Software/Apps Hardware hasn't been innovated. The closest thing we got was the hope of a modular phone that was bought for the patents (?) and killed inside of google. The best thing we get is better cameras, biometrics, and screen resolution. Not many people care about cameras (not including selfies), biometrics is sort of a lame duck (who needs their face constantly scanned? or fingerprints as passwords for everything), screen resolution doesn't anymore because the screen size is so small -- majority of people play easy games, like LoL, PUBG, and Candy Crush clones. Operating system experience is converging on features between iOS/Android to the point they are really indistinguishable. Software is limited because of hardware specs, walled gardens, and the learning curve -- but much more nefariously I software devs might just be afraid if they build something cool these companies would just turn around and steal it/bake it into the OS. Alternatively we could see adoption start moving horizontal into other peripherals like VR/AR/IoT devices (watches) -- but I'm not holding my breath on that until I see a company come out with something amazing. For instance the precursor to the iPhone was the Samsung i300, the leap from the i300 to the iPhone wasn't that big for me, but it changed a lot of things that just made sense. The leap for peripherals right now would be too great to expect a magical turnaround in adoption -- but I would love to be first in line to be proven wrong. So where does that leave us? Well we need to rethink things from the ground up again. We've hit local maxima with experience.

taurath 8y ago
I think we need people who have been thinking natively about these devices to think of ways they can actually improve our lives, instead of the people who are still used to thinking of it as a feature sheet and expecting to just strap the newest hardware in. Most of that needs to come at the OS level.
LyndsySimon 8y ago
> The leap for peripherals right now would be too great to expect a magical turnaround in adoption -- but I would love to be first in line to be proven wrong. I have a feeling that Apple forcing the move to AirPods is laying the groundwork for that. I would love an iPad that was just a battery and a screen, that connected wirelessly to my phone for processing. Likewise, I'd be interested in a laptop that did the same - but it has to be wireless, and the phone's battery would have to be at least two or three times the capacity of the iPhone X.

nostromo 8y ago

I'm very optimistic that Apple is going to be forced to innovate outside of the iPhone for the first time in many years. Mac users: rejoice!

irrational 8y ago

Is it mature, or has all the low hanging fruit been plucked? I want things like a phone that I can set on a flat surface and it will project a large monitor view onto a white wall and also project a holographic(?) keyboard in front of the phone that I can type on (I'm not expecting to feel the keyboard since it is just light - but when I hit the A "key" it should type an A). I want a battery that lasts a week. I want a wired headphone jack. I want it to be fully waterproof. Etc.

et2o 8y ago
I want a laptop dock for my iPhone!
- spiznnx 8y ago
  Like Samsung dex?
taurath 8y ago
Personal devices need to focus harder on actually improving people’s lives rather than their time using the devices. All these antipatterns that arise from the overuse of information can be solved with the right focus.
- butlerian_jihad 8y ago
  perhaps a radically new approach is required. machines should serve us, not we them.
darawk 8y ago
> Is it mature, or has all the low hanging fruit been plucked? Aren't those things the same thing?
wodenokoto 8y ago
I think it is safe to say that laptops are a mature market, and they can't do any of that either, except for the headphone jack. So how does those dreamy claims make the market immature?

CapitalistCartr 8y ago

Phones still have a long way to go. They have all the corporate controls PCs don't, because corporations missed that boat. I want a removable battery, micro-SD slot, audio jack, and control over the OS/interface comparable to my desktop. I don't give a crap about shaving a millimeter off the thickness, or 3 grams of weight. And I'm one who trims my backpack straps extra short.

charlysl 8y ago
Granted: buy Android.
- ahartmetz 8y ago
  Except for the non-crippled software part, even with LineageOS or similar. A desktop OS has a lot of software infrastructure that Android doesn't have.

zepto 8y ago

Apple has a stated goal of increasing the usable life of iphones. These people need to realize it’s strategic. http://www.asymco.com/2018/09/13/lasts-longer/ http://www.asymco.com/2018/09/13/lasts-longer/

smileypete 8y ago

Apple phones are relatively standard hardware with good software and a (unjustifiably?) high price tag. So it should be no surprise that they last the same as other phones with similarly standard hardware (but considerably lower prices). Nevertheless some Apple owners choose to ignore this or do not appreciate it being pointed out. :)

dasmoth 8y ago
Apple phones are relatively standard hardware with good software and a (unjustifiably?) high price tag. In some ways, I wish this were the case. But my reading is that Apple's custom processors are still far ahead of the competition, and last time I looked it was hard to match Apple's fit and finish, especially if you are looking at anything other than the very top of the Android market. And for something that you keep in your pocket and handle regularly, a feeling of solidity is worth something. It's a tragedy that you can't buy an iPhone with an unlocked bootloader. There's some interesting potential for innovation there. (This is even more true in some other market segments. The hardware for the last couple of generations of Apple Watch is amazing, and that makes OS-imposed limits on what third party apps can do tragic).
- smileypete 8y ago
  The A12 is peerless I admit, and a good 4-6 months ahead of the rest of the market. It's a shame that Huawei phones can no longer be unlocked too, part of a trend towards dumbed down consumption devices I suppose.