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If scarcity is causing high prices, why did San Francisco rents balloon from $2300 in 2008 to $3600 in 2016 when the population size only grew modestly at the s

If scarcity is causing high prices, why did San Francisco rents balloon from $2300 in 2008 to $3600 in 2016 when the population size only grew modestly at the same time? The idea that supply scarcity is responsible for what is clearly a tech-driven event is some serious head-in-sand reasoning. I watched this happen; tech boomed in SF after 2008, and prices boomed with them. The population, meanwhile, did not boom significantly. This has little to do with scarcity.

jchmbrln 8y ago
Honest question: how can the population grow more than modestly without more housing? Without more information, what you just described sounds to me exactly like a supply-constrained scenario. Population can’t grow, so prices skyrocket.
- astazangasta 8y ago
  By increasing density in existing housing stock, which is exactly what would happen if the boom were being driven by sudden population influx. This isn't what happened; instead poorer residents just began to be replaced by wealthier ones.
  - erik_seaberg 8y ago
    SFist used to write about crazy offers like "rent my walk in closet" or "share a big house with 50 techies". https://sfist.com/2015/12/31/the_worst_and_saddest_of_apartment/ https://sfist.com/2015/12/31/the_worst_and_saddest_of_apartm...
deleted 8y ago
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erik_seaberg 8y ago
A large number of people moved in, the vacancy rate went to zero, and an equally large number of people had to move out because they had been outbid for every unit. If not for hosting shortage we'd see a population boom.
todipa 8y ago
You don't need a considerable increase in population to affect prices substantially. You only need to push out the marginal people, the ones who are at the lowest end of the rental spectrum. So to compete, these people are forced to pay a higher % of their salary towards rent, this creates a vicious uptrend in real estate prices. The only remedy to this problem is to increase housing supply. Good luck...

jchmbrln 8y ago

Honest question: how can the population grow more than modestly without more housing? Without more information, what you just described sounds to me exactly like a supply-constrained scenario. Population can’t grow, so prices skyrocket.

astazangasta 8y ago
By increasing density in existing housing stock, which is exactly what would happen if the boom were being driven by sudden population influx. This isn't what happened; instead poorer residents just began to be replaced by wealthier ones.
- erik_seaberg 8y ago
  SFist used to write about crazy offers like "rent my walk in closet" or "share a big house with 50 techies". https://sfist.com/2015/12/31/the_worst_and_saddest_of_apartment/ https://sfist.com/2015/12/31/the_worst_and_saddest_of_apartm...

deleted 8y ago

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erik_seaberg 8y ago

A large number of people moved in, the vacancy rate went to zero, and an equally large number of people had to move out because they had been outbid for every unit. If not for hosting shortage we'd see a population boom.

todipa 8y ago

You don't need a considerable increase in population to affect prices substantially. You only need to push out the marginal people, the ones who are at the lowest end of the rental spectrum. So to compete, these people are forced to pay a higher % of their salary towards rent, this creates a vicious uptrend in real estate prices. The only remedy to this problem is to increase housing supply. Good luck...