4 ms·

Maybe we can stop being obtuse? The senate can end this by passing a budget and override the president's veto. They're choosing not to.

by atonse 8y ago

rplst8 8y ago
This is the part that people so easily forget. The power is truley in Congress' hands. That said, appropriations bills must originate in the House and the new speaker and flock of freshman Representatives haven't passed anything yet.
- danso 8y ago
  Why would the House waste time passing bills that aren’t going to have a veto proof majority? Congress generally waits until they’re close to having the votes before going through the process.
  - sdenton4 8y ago
    The Senate passed the House bill before the winter recess. Trump threw his tantrum, though...
- kmontrose 8y ago
  The House has already passed a couple bills funding the government, in whole or in part[1]. They haven't been taken up in the Senate. One of the bills passed this week: https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/21?s=3&r=20 https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/21?s... [1]: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/04/house-passes-bill-to-end-government-shutdown-without-border-wall-money.html https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/04/house-passes-bill-to-end-gov...
- pimlottc 8y ago
  > That said, appropriations bills must originate in the House and the new speaker and flock of freshman Representatives haven't passed anything yet. This is flatly untrue. The House passed an appropriations bill [0] on the first day they were in session (Jan 3), and it has been waiting for a vote in the Senate since then. 0: https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/116/hr21 https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/116/hr21
yourapostasy 8y ago
> They're choosing not to. For sound political reasons. You may not like those reasons, but they aren't being "obtuse" in the sense they do not understand what they are doing because they lack the wits to comprehend. Minimizing your opponent with those kinds of terms risks you underestimating them. The "base" that voted in most of the Senate voted in Trump. At the federal level, they pretty much count as a single voting bloc, and that's very powerful in the electoral landscape. And for that base, the wall is very nearly a single-issue vote factor (among a few other issues that base holds similarly dear). You may not like it for various practical reasons, but they currently vote slightly more consistently than Democrats in slightly more precincts where it counts. This might tilt soon to Democrats for demographic reasons, but for the purposes of analyzing this record-breaking shutdown, we must take this base's effect seriously. Both the Republican senators and Trump need to at a minimum show that base that they were overridden by the Democrats on the wall issue, or they will definitively lose in 2020. Unfortunately, the Democrats do not hold a super-majority to force both houses to pass a bill, retrieve a veto from Trump, then override the veto. So the Democrats are stuck in a deadlock legislatively. Where the Republicans are vulnerable is public sentiment. If the Democrats stir up public sentiment against Senate Republicans by somehow showing all Democrat politicians are throwing in their financial lot with affected Federal workers and simultaneously casting the GOP Senate Republicans as "Richie Rich" Marie Antoinette's, then that can weaken Senate Republican resolve to block Democrat-sponsored funding bills enough to punt the ball into the executive branch with some ass-covering statements to their base that they were somehow legislatively outmaneuvered by the dasterdly Democrats. The problem with this kind of approach is realistically, even many Democrat senators are relatively wealthy [1], and quite a few Republican senators are not Scrooge McDuck diving into gold coin piles. It's political theatrics through caricatures, and Trump has a proven, astonishing ability to out-theatrics his opponents and make it stick (that's the part that continues to surprise me), and that's a wildcard. But if the Democrats somehow neutralize the Federal workers' pain, and convincingly show they can outlast the Republicans (probably by showing they'll take it all the way to 2020 if necessary), then they defang the GOP's obstructive strategy. It would take a hell of a big war chest, however. Which is why I don't see it ever happening. Would love to hear others' ideas on how Democrats can force Trump's hand on this shutdown issue, as this is certainly an interesting political problem that will be studied in the future by students of politics. [1] https://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2016/apr/14/bernie-sanders/bernie-sanders-says-hes-one-poorer-members-united-/ https://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2016/apr...

Maybe we can stop being obtuse? The senate can end this by passing a budget and override the president's veto. They're choosing not to.

by atonse 8y ago

Maybe we can stop being obtuse? The senate can end this by passing a budget and override the president's veto. They're choosing not to.

rplst8 8y ago

This is the part that people so easily forget. The power is truley in Congress' hands. That said, appropriations bills must originate in the House and the new speaker and flock of freshman Representatives haven't passed anything yet.

danso 8y ago
Why would the House waste time passing bills that aren’t going to have a veto proof majority? Congress generally waits until they’re close to having the votes before going through the process.
- sdenton4 8y ago
  The Senate passed the House bill before the winter recess. Trump threw his tantrum, though...
kmontrose 8y ago
The House has already passed a couple bills funding the government, in whole or in part[1]. They haven't been taken up in the Senate. One of the bills passed this week: https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/21?s=3&r=20 https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/21?s... [1]: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/04/house-passes-bill-to-end-government-shutdown-without-border-wall-money.html https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/04/house-passes-bill-to-end-gov...
pimlottc 8y ago
> That said, appropriations bills must originate in the House and the new speaker and flock of freshman Representatives haven't passed anything yet. This is flatly untrue. The House passed an appropriations bill [0] on the first day they were in session (Jan 3), and it has been waiting for a vote in the Senate since then. 0: https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/116/hr21 https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/116/hr21

yourapostasy 8y ago

> They're choosing not to. For sound political reasons. You may not like those reasons, but they aren't being "obtuse" in the sense they do not understand what they are doing because they lack the wits to comprehend. Minimizing your opponent with those kinds of terms risks you underestimating them. The "base" that voted in most of the Senate voted in Trump. At the federal level, they pretty much count as a single voting bloc, and that's very powerful in the electoral landscape. And for that base, the wall is very nearly a single-issue vote factor (among a few other issues that base holds similarly dear). You may not like it for various practical reasons, but they currently vote slightly more consistently than Democrats in slightly more precincts where it counts. This might tilt soon to Democrats for demographic reasons, but for the purposes of analyzing this record-breaking shutdown, we must take this base's effect seriously. Both the Republican senators and Trump need to at a minimum show that base that they were overridden by the Democrats on the wall issue, or they will definitively lose in 2020. Unfortunately, the Democrats do not hold a super-majority to force both houses to pass a bill, retrieve a veto from Trump, then override the veto. So the Democrats are stuck in a deadlock legislatively. Where the Republicans are vulnerable is public sentiment. If the Democrats stir up public sentiment against Senate Republicans by somehow showing all Democrat politicians are throwing in their financial lot with affected Federal workers and simultaneously casting the GOP Senate Republicans as "Richie Rich" Marie Antoinette's, then that can weaken Senate Republican resolve to block Democrat-sponsored funding bills enough to punt the ball into the executive branch with some ass-covering statements to their base that they were somehow legislatively outmaneuvered by the dasterdly Democrats. The problem with this kind of approach is realistically, even many Democrat senators are relatively wealthy [1], and quite a few Republican senators are not Scrooge McDuck diving into gold coin piles. It's political theatrics through caricatures, and Trump has a proven, astonishing ability to out-theatrics his opponents and make it stick (that's the part that continues to surprise me), and that's a wildcard. But if the Democrats somehow neutralize the Federal workers' pain, and convincingly show they can outlast the Republicans (probably by showing they'll take it all the way to 2020 if necessary), then they defang the GOP's obstructive strategy. It would take a hell of a big war chest, however. Which is why I don't see it ever happening. Would love to hear others' ideas on how Democrats can force Trump's hand on this shutdown issue, as this is certainly an interesting political problem that will be studied in the future by students of politics. [1] https://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2016/apr/14/bernie-sanders/bernie-sanders-says-hes-one-poorer-members-united-/ https://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2016/apr...