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I'm not sure I see any evidence the latter one happens in the forseeable future. Many high tax states hold top-performing cities which are struggling to handle

I'm not sure I see any evidence the latter one happens in the forseeable future. Many high tax states hold top-performing cities which are struggling to handle massive incoming migration that has been happening a good 20 years. The biggest gripe in my cost of living is by far housing. If I moved back to my home town in Florida, it would be so I can live near my parents and so I can afford a house . Not for taxes. I suppose states without top cities, like Vermont, might run into problems. But even that is speculation - how many people actually uproot their lives just to save on state income tax?

rayiner 8y ago
What do you mean “many?” Basically just SF and LA. There is huge net domestic outmigration from day NYC.
- Retric 8y ago
  NYC’s population keeps growing. It had a peak in the 70’s, but it’s never been larger than right now. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_New_York_(state) https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_New_York_(st...
  - lotsofpulp 8y ago
    NYC might be okay, it's one of a kind, but I think NJ/CT/IL are in for a slow long term decay. Their debt numbers are staggering, and they don't offer anything unique that other places don't. https://www.watchdog.org/illinois/by-the-numbers-illinois-receives-f-grade-on-national-ranking/article_b0448e98-0a30-11e9-90aa-fb0b253c28c7.html https://www.watchdog.org/illinois/by-the-numbers-illinois-re...
    - Retric 8y ago
      New Jersey has the second highest household income in the United States. That’s a significant draw. In terms of debt to GDP it’s South Carolina and New York that’s in real trouble. https://www.usgovernmentdebt.us/state_debt_rank https://www.usgovernmentdebt.us/state_debt_rank PS: All states combined is 14.79% and NJ stands at 15.69%. So it’s not great, but it’s not that far from average.
      - lotsofpulp 8y ago
        None of the sources in that link seem to include unfunded defined benefit and other post retirement employment benefits as debt, which they are. Percentage of taxes going towards paying debt service including benefits for retired government employees is going to far outpace increase in incomes for NJ/CT/IL. Plus they have a lot of infrastructure debt to pay. They're not the worst states to live in, especially if you're making a high income from NYC or Chicago and need a suburb to live in, but for 90% of people there's probably a place they can get more bang for their buck tax wise in the long run.
        Retric 8y ago
        Pensions have frequently been reduced in the US, making such long term obligations somewhat less dangerous. Lack of large scale migration means people actually like living there even if they don’t like specific aspects. SC on the other hand seems to be in a far worse situation without any clear mechanics for improving the situation. PS: Looking at federal spending you can see many states are already on life support.
        lotsofpulp 8y ago
        I don't know about frequently, I've only heard of 2 cases of pensions being reduced, with Detroit and Rhode Island being very recent and very new phenomenons. Even then, they are still a large portion of the budget. In IL, there is state constitutional amendment protecting defined benefit pensions, and I would love to see the battle between non government employee voters versus government employees play out. Either way, you can be sure that the situation will be bad before pensions start getting cut. And South Carolina might not be good, but there's a bunch of other states with high growth in incomes, increasing high income populations, and well funded governments.
        Retric 8y ago
        It’s really common across a wide range of states. https://www.nasra.org/files/Spotlight/Significant%20Reforms.pdf https://www.nasra.org/files/Spotlight/Significant%20Reforms.... Most of these have limited impact on current retirees, but changing inflation calculations and capped annual increases really add up.
claydavisss 8y ago
There is net migration INTO California, but the mix keeps changing. Over time, taxpayers move out and "beneficiaries" move in. This isn't a value judgement, its a stat.
milliondollar 8y ago
Going from living in VT to NH right now, for those very reasons. A huge number of VT tax refugees along the border of VT and NH.

rayiner 8y ago

What do you mean “many?” Basically just SF and LA. There is huge net domestic outmigration from day NYC.

Retric 8y ago
NYC’s population keeps growing. It had a peak in the 70’s, but it’s never been larger than right now. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_New_York_(state) https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_New_York_(st...
- lotsofpulp 8y ago
  NYC might be okay, it's one of a kind, but I think NJ/CT/IL are in for a slow long term decay. Their debt numbers are staggering, and they don't offer anything unique that other places don't. https://www.watchdog.org/illinois/by-the-numbers-illinois-receives-f-grade-on-national-ranking/article_b0448e98-0a30-11e9-90aa-fb0b253c28c7.html https://www.watchdog.org/illinois/by-the-numbers-illinois-re...
  - Retric 8y ago
    New Jersey has the second highest household income in the United States. That’s a significant draw. In terms of debt to GDP it’s South Carolina and New York that’s in real trouble. https://www.usgovernmentdebt.us/state_debt_rank https://www.usgovernmentdebt.us/state_debt_rank PS: All states combined is 14.79% and NJ stands at 15.69%. So it’s not great, but it’s not that far from average.
    - lotsofpulp 8y ago
      None of the sources in that link seem to include unfunded defined benefit and other post retirement employment benefits as debt, which they are. Percentage of taxes going towards paying debt service including benefits for retired government employees is going to far outpace increase in incomes for NJ/CT/IL. Plus they have a lot of infrastructure debt to pay. They're not the worst states to live in, especially if you're making a high income from NYC or Chicago and need a suburb to live in, but for 90% of people there's probably a place they can get more bang for their buck tax wise in the long run.
      - Retric 8y ago
        Pensions have frequently been reduced in the US, making such long term obligations somewhat less dangerous. Lack of large scale migration means people actually like living there even if they don’t like specific aspects. SC on the other hand seems to be in a far worse situation without any clear mechanics for improving the situation. PS: Looking at federal spending you can see many states are already on life support.
        lotsofpulp 8y ago
        I don't know about frequently, I've only heard of 2 cases of pensions being reduced, with Detroit and Rhode Island being very recent and very new phenomenons. Even then, they are still a large portion of the budget. In IL, there is state constitutional amendment protecting defined benefit pensions, and I would love to see the battle between non government employee voters versus government employees play out. Either way, you can be sure that the situation will be bad before pensions start getting cut. And South Carolina might not be good, but there's a bunch of other states with high growth in incomes, increasing high income populations, and well funded governments.
        Retric 8y ago
        It’s really common across a wide range of states. https://www.nasra.org/files/Spotlight/Significant%20Reforms.pdf https://www.nasra.org/files/Spotlight/Significant%20Reforms.... Most of these have limited impact on current retirees, but changing inflation calculations and capped annual increases really add up.

claydavisss 8y ago

There is net migration INTO California, but the mix keeps changing. Over time, taxpayers move out and "beneficiaries" move in. This isn't a value judgement, its a stat.

milliondollar 8y ago

Going from living in VT to NH right now, for those very reasons. A huge number of VT tax refugees along the border of VT and NH.