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The one problem that I can see is the fact that these studies can only correlate people's behaviour and their longevity, as opposed to randomly assigning people

by fjh 16y ago

The one problem that I can see is the fact that these studies can only correlate people's behaviour and their longevity, as opposed to randomly assigning people into groups of drinkers/teetotallers. It is a fair assumption that people who don't drink differ from other people in other aspects, too. (e.g. they might be more religious, or not drink for health reasons, or have a less active social life etc). You obviously cannot do double-blind studies about long-term alcohol consumption, so correlation is the best we have, but one must still be careful when interpreting these kinds of results.

ojbyrne 16y ago
There are numerous experimental designs that, while they don't have the predictive value of double-blind experiments, are found to have significant predictive value. The simplest way is to control for the confounding factors such as you describe. Google "Quasi-experimentation."
jmatt 16y ago
Full disclojure (hah): I don't drink though I don't consider myself a teetotaler. I really don't mind what others do to their bodies. not drink for health reasons Yes this sounds plausible. Even if the person isn't unhealthy maybe their family history is such that they still don't drink. have a less active social life etc As a semi-introvert[1] I always wonder how true this is for the minority of us that much prefer this so called social isolation. I'd take a night alone or with a small group of friends over a bar or conference absolutely every time always. Of course that is assuming there are no other external influences - which is rarely (I'd say never but we're on HN...) the case. All that really matters is whether you are suffering from anxiety rather than loneliness[2]. [1] I'm XNTP somewhere between INTP and ENTP on the meyer brigs http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myers-Briggs_Type_Indicator http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myers-Briggs_Type_Indicator [2] I can't remember the last time I was lonely or bored. Hmmm, is this really that unusual amongst similar introverts? I just consider myself somewhat curious and self-motivated.

by fjh 16y ago

ojbyrne 16y ago

There are numerous experimental designs that, while they don't have the predictive value of double-blind experiments, are found to have significant predictive value. The simplest way is to control for the confounding factors such as you describe. Google "Quasi-experimentation."

jmatt 16y ago

Full disclojure (hah): I don't drink though I don't consider myself a teetotaler. I really don't mind what others do to their bodies. not drink for health reasons Yes this sounds plausible. Even if the person isn't unhealthy maybe their family history is such that they still don't drink. have a less active social life etc As a semi-introvert[1] I always wonder how true this is for the minority of us that much prefer this so called social isolation. I'd take a night alone or with a small group of friends over a bar or conference absolutely every time always. Of course that is assuming there are no other external influences - which is rarely (I'd say never but we're on HN...) the case. All that really matters is whether you are suffering from anxiety rather than loneliness[2]. [1] I'm XNTP somewhere between INTP and ENTP on the meyer brigs http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myers-Briggs_Type_Indicator http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myers-Briggs_Type_Indicator [2] I can't remember the last time I was lonely or bored. Hmmm, is this really that unusual amongst similar introverts? I just consider myself somewhat curious and self-motivated.