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This is deeply unsettling to be honest. It means kenya is looking f or a long-term relationship with China even though chinas debt driven diplomacy is already p

by demarq 8y ago

This is deeply unsettling to be honest. It means kenya is looking f or a long-term relationship with China even though chinas debt driven diplomacy is already pushing the country into a precarious financial state.

beat 8y ago
What "precarious financial state"? The Kenyan economy has grown at a steady, rapid 5% pace for the past decade, with no backsliding or instability. Are you sure you're not making assumptions based on political conventional wisdom, rather than facts and observation? China wants trading partners, generally. It drives their economy, so it's in their best interest to see their partners do well. And since China has increased per capita GDP by 130x (in constant dollars) since 1960, they know something about lifting nations out of poverty. edit: Per world bank data, Kenya's per capita GDP has increased every year since 2002, and has nearly quadrupled in that time (from $395 to over $1500). If that's a precarious state, sign me up! [https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=KE https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?location...]
- demarq 8y ago
  > Are you sure you're not making assumptions based on political conventional wisdom, rather than facts and observation? I tried really hard to make sense out of that. I really did. > What "precarious financial state"? - "Kenya debt is rising to dangerous levels"[1] - "Kenya holds the 3rd largest chinese debt["2] - "Bleak 2019 for Kenyan tax payers"[3] > rather than facts and observation? I literally live here. As for the 5% GDP growth you point out, surely much better than Tanzania, or Ethiopia right?. > China wants trading partners, generally > they know something about lifting nations out of poverty Yup. Their economy badly needs a group of poor African countries as trading partners. definitely, nothing to do with power and global politics. Here is china lifting nations out of poverty... - "Like Zambia, Sri Lanka also handed over port to China to pay off debt"[4] Yup, uplifting stuff. > Kenya's per capita GDP has increased every year since 2002, and has nearly quadrupled in that time (from $395 to over $1500) "Kenyans owe $1,0000 per capita" [5]. 1. https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2018/08/06/kenyas-public-debt-is-rising-to-dangerous-levels_c1798513 https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2018/08/06/kenyas-public-deb... 2. https://www.capitalfm.co.ke/business/2018/09/kenya-holds-third-highest-chinese-debt-in-africa/ https://www.capitalfm.co.ke/business/2018/09/kenya-holds-thi... 3. https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/business/Bleak-2019-for-taxpayers-as-Kenya-begins-repaying-loans/2560-4923632-bsy6lx/index.html https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/business/Bleak-2019-for-tax... 4. https://www.africanliberty.org/2018/09/10/like-zambia-sri-lanka-also-handed-over-port-to-china-to-pay-off-debt/ https://www.africanliberty.org/2018/09/10/like-zambia-sri-la... 5. https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2018/01/08/kenyans-owe-sh100000-each-in-public-debt_c1693640 https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2018/01/08/kenyans-owe-sh100... as bonus content, guess what security Kenya used to secure the last loan. read to find out https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/business/Mombasa-port-SGR-loan-default-Chinsa/2560-4903360-clh5nn/index.html https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/business/Mombasa-port-SGR-l... If none of that can convince you, I just don't know what could. I'm exhausted at this point.
  - beat 8y ago
    All good points. First things first... I assumed you're an American. If you're Kenyan, then I was wrong and you're coming from a more educated perspective. Please understand that Americans have some wild assumptions about the rest of the world. The articles on Kenya's debt situation were very enlightening, thank you! It looks offhand like it's problematic, but not unsolvable. See where things are in another ten years. But a debt crisis isn't any better for lenders than it is for debtors. What good does it do China for Kenya to default on its loans? As for 5% growth... that's really good. Maybe not the best in Africa, but far better than the mature economies of the West (most of Europe has hovered around 1% for the same period, and the US is 1.4%). That makes for an attractive investment opportunity, especially by non-state actors who are even less interested in defaulted loans than nations are. As for China's interest... well, their manufacturing-based economy needs a steady supply of raw materials. Africa has those. And China is not interested in military occupation to enforce resource extraction, colonial style. That leaves trade, and trade has to be mutually beneficial over the long term, or one party will just stop participating. (edit: As an aside, it's absurd and annoying that your comment is getting downvoted. I really wish people would stop using downvoting as a "disagree" button, especially for things they don't understand.)
    - demarq 8y ago
      understood, and sorry if I came off very angry. It's a topic I feel very strongly about.
      - beat 8y ago
        Sure, that's understandable. I hope you get where I'm coming from. The question, to me at least, is whether Chinese activity in Kenya does Kenya more good than harm, and I think it probably does. I also believe it's in China's best interest that Kenya becomes economically successful, and not default on its debt, and that China knows this. If China is using economic relations to become a dominant player in Africa (as opposed to American gunboat diplomacy or British colonialism), they need to be perceived as a better deal for the countries involved. Which isn't that hard!

by demarq 8y ago

beat 8y ago

What "precarious financial state"? The Kenyan economy has grown at a steady, rapid 5% pace for the past decade, with no backsliding or instability. Are you sure you're not making assumptions based on political conventional wisdom, rather than facts and observation? China wants trading partners, generally. It drives their economy, so it's in their best interest to see their partners do well. And since China has increased per capita GDP by 130x (in constant dollars) since 1960, they know something about lifting nations out of poverty. edit: Per world bank data, Kenya's per capita GDP has increased every year since 2002, and has nearly quadrupled in that time (from $395 to over $1500). If that's a precarious state, sign me up! [https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=KE https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?location...]

demarq 8y ago
> Are you sure you're not making assumptions based on political conventional wisdom, rather than facts and observation? I tried really hard to make sense out of that. I really did. > What "precarious financial state"? - "Kenya debt is rising to dangerous levels"[1] - "Kenya holds the 3rd largest chinese debt["2] - "Bleak 2019 for Kenyan tax payers"[3] > rather than facts and observation? I literally live here. As for the 5% GDP growth you point out, surely much better than Tanzania, or Ethiopia right?. > China wants trading partners, generally > they know something about lifting nations out of poverty Yup. Their economy badly needs a group of poor African countries as trading partners. definitely, nothing to do with power and global politics. Here is china lifting nations out of poverty... - "Like Zambia, Sri Lanka also handed over port to China to pay off debt"[4] Yup, uplifting stuff. > Kenya's per capita GDP has increased every year since 2002, and has nearly quadrupled in that time (from $395 to over $1500) "Kenyans owe $1,0000 per capita" [5]. 1. https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2018/08/06/kenyas-public-debt-is-rising-to-dangerous-levels_c1798513 https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2018/08/06/kenyas-public-deb... 2. https://www.capitalfm.co.ke/business/2018/09/kenya-holds-third-highest-chinese-debt-in-africa/ https://www.capitalfm.co.ke/business/2018/09/kenya-holds-thi... 3. https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/business/Bleak-2019-for-taxpayers-as-Kenya-begins-repaying-loans/2560-4923632-bsy6lx/index.html https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/business/Bleak-2019-for-tax... 4. https://www.africanliberty.org/2018/09/10/like-zambia-sri-lanka-also-handed-over-port-to-china-to-pay-off-debt/ https://www.africanliberty.org/2018/09/10/like-zambia-sri-la... 5. https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2018/01/08/kenyans-owe-sh100000-each-in-public-debt_c1693640 https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2018/01/08/kenyans-owe-sh100... as bonus content, guess what security Kenya used to secure the last loan. read to find out https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/business/Mombasa-port-SGR-loan-default-Chinsa/2560-4903360-clh5nn/index.html https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/business/Mombasa-port-SGR-l... If none of that can convince you, I just don't know what could. I'm exhausted at this point.
- beat 8y ago
  All good points. First things first... I assumed you're an American. If you're Kenyan, then I was wrong and you're coming from a more educated perspective. Please understand that Americans have some wild assumptions about the rest of the world. The articles on Kenya's debt situation were very enlightening, thank you! It looks offhand like it's problematic, but not unsolvable. See where things are in another ten years. But a debt crisis isn't any better for lenders than it is for debtors. What good does it do China for Kenya to default on its loans? As for 5% growth... that's really good. Maybe not the best in Africa, but far better than the mature economies of the West (most of Europe has hovered around 1% for the same period, and the US is 1.4%). That makes for an attractive investment opportunity, especially by non-state actors who are even less interested in defaulted loans than nations are. As for China's interest... well, their manufacturing-based economy needs a steady supply of raw materials. Africa has those. And China is not interested in military occupation to enforce resource extraction, colonial style. That leaves trade, and trade has to be mutually beneficial over the long term, or one party will just stop participating. (edit: As an aside, it's absurd and annoying that your comment is getting downvoted. I really wish people would stop using downvoting as a "disagree" button, especially for things they don't understand.)
  - demarq 8y ago
    understood, and sorry if I came off very angry. It's a topic I feel very strongly about.
    - beat 8y ago
      Sure, that's understandable. I hope you get where I'm coming from. The question, to me at least, is whether Chinese activity in Kenya does Kenya more good than harm, and I think it probably does. I also believe it's in China's best interest that Kenya becomes economically successful, and not default on its debt, and that China knows this. If China is using economic relations to become a dominant player in Africa (as opposed to American gunboat diplomacy or British colonialism), they need to be perceived as a better deal for the countries involved. Which isn't that hard!