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U.S. Carbon Pollution Surged in 2018, After Years of Stasis

RcouF1uZ4gsC 8y ago
>The Rhodium report is not the first clue that 2018 was basically a terrible year for the climate. Last month, two studies also found that worldwide carbon emissions surged in 2018. This change is a discouraging sign, since global emissions stagnated through the middle of the decade. Between this article and events such as the fuel tax protests in France, I have no hope of coming up with a political solution to global warming before it's too late. Our only hope is a technical solution. If you look at population growth, starting with Malthus, people warned of the dangers of overpopulation and urged people to abstain from sex, so as not to have too many children. Despite grim warnings that didn't happen. Then medical science came up with a pill a that a woman could swallow once a day which would prevent pregnancy. As people over the world gained access to it, the population growth rate has declined, and the population is projected to stabilize. I sincerely hope that something like this will be the story with global warning.
- toufiqbarhamov 8y ago
  A technical solution would be tantamount to a miracle. History, including the history you reference suggests another possibility; we’ll do unthinkable things, that become very thinkable indeed as awareness of just how much trouble we’re in spreads. Less people, however that’s obtained, is the easiest (as in requiring no new thinking or tech) solution, and killing or sterilizing large numbers of people is old hat for us as a species. If it becomes clear that only finding a rapid means of reducing the population, then it will be discussed, slowly at first, and then gain steam. However we decide to go about it, with whatever rationalizations and intentions, the result will be extreme violence and social instability. If we want to avoid this as a scenario, waiting for tech to save us is the worst possible action to take. The disappointment and panic that will inevitably set in when people realize no salvation is coming will set the stage for genocide (whether by war, starvation, or denying reproductive rights).
- shard972 8y ago
  > If you look at population growth, starting with Malthus, people warned of the dangers of overpopulation and urged people to abstain from sex, so as not to have too many children. Despite grim warnings that didn't happen. It has already happened in the west, even birth-happy countries like france have gone under replacement rates and their native populations are decreasing. Even China is starting to slow down, hence why we see China moving towards introducing baby bonus schemes. Currently Africa is the big holdout with their population still rising drastically but currently there isn't really any plan for Africa to reduce it's population. If anything, with African emigration increasing and no other major forces counteracting it, we are probably going to see Africa continue to grow in population for years to come. For whatever reason, Africa just isn't jumping on the pill bandwagon.
- KnightOfWords 8y ago
  > Our only hope is a technical solution. There are many technical mitigations to the problem, but a technical solution is well out of reach I'm afraid. The problem with carbon removal/storage and the like isn't that it's technically impossible but the scope of the effort required - of a similar magnitude to that of global carbon extraction over the last century. Malthus was staved off by the efforts of the green revolution but its practises, intensize use of fertilizers and pesticides aided by mechanisation, may not be sustainable due to topsoil erosion and carbon emission. We don't know what the long-term carrying capacity of the planet is.
Bucephalus355 8y ago
Production is moving from China to here. Production here is much cleaner. Of course China lies about its pollution numbers. Why wouldn’t they? They heavily exaggerate about the GDP numbers. In Congress the Natural Resources Committee has also shown pretty conclusively that China has paid off the large environmental groups in the US to not speak of / address situation in China.
- shard972 8y ago
  To the people downvoting this, what else are we to believe in regards to CFC emissions apparently being illegal for quite a few years now, but yet we are seeing CFC emissions rise specifically in east Asia https://www.gizmodo.com.au/2018/12/industrial-chloroform-emissions-are-rising-and-thats-bad-news/ https://www.gizmodo.com.au/2018/12/industrial-chloroform-emi... If they lie about CFC emissions, why on earth would they be truthful about carbon dioxide?
  - toufiqbarhamov 8y ago
    At a guess, the reaction might be down to the fact that the article talks specifically about a rise in U.S. carbon pollution, and the person you’re responding to pivoted to China.
- woodandsteel 8y ago
  So are you saying that Trump is correct that (anthropgenic) global climate change is a hoax invented by the Chinese to undermine the US?
  - AnimalMuppet 8y ago
    No, that is not at all what Bucephalus355 is saying. Rather, the hoax is China's pollution being as low as is claimed.
    - woodandsteel 8y ago
      I don't know what the heck you are talking about. I have read countless articles in the mainstream media and environmental sites, and none of them say pollution in China is low. What they all say is that for decades pollution increased radically in China, but then about 5 years ago the government decided to take on the long, difficult task of trying to eliminate it. And since then major steps have been taken, and there have been some big improvements, like the air quality in Beijing, but that there is still a very long way yet to go. But now let me ask you this. You seem to be implying that you don't believe that anthropogenic global climate change is a hoax by the Chinese. If I am reading you correctly, then are you angry at Trump for claiming it is?

>The Rhodium report is not the first clue that 2018 was basically a terrible year for the climate. Last month, two studies also found that worldwide carbon emissions surged in 2018. This change is a discouraging sign, since global emissions stagnated through the middle of the decade. Between this article and events such as the fuel tax protests in France, I have no hope of coming up with a political solution to global warming before it's too late. Our only hope is a technical solution. If you look at population growth, starting with Malthus, people warned of the dangers of overpopulation and urged people to abstain from sex, so as not to have too many children. Despite grim warnings that didn't happen. Then medical science came up with a pill a that a woman could swallow once a day which would prevent pregnancy. As people over the world gained access to it, the population growth rate has declined, and the population is projected to stabilize. I sincerely hope that something like this will be the story with global warning.

toufiqbarhamov 8y ago
A technical solution would be tantamount to a miracle. History, including the history you reference suggests another possibility; we’ll do unthinkable things, that become very thinkable indeed as awareness of just how much trouble we’re in spreads. Less people, however that’s obtained, is the easiest (as in requiring no new thinking or tech) solution, and killing or sterilizing large numbers of people is old hat for us as a species. If it becomes clear that only finding a rapid means of reducing the population, then it will be discussed, slowly at first, and then gain steam. However we decide to go about it, with whatever rationalizations and intentions, the result will be extreme violence and social instability. If we want to avoid this as a scenario, waiting for tech to save us is the worst possible action to take. The disappointment and panic that will inevitably set in when people realize no salvation is coming will set the stage for genocide (whether by war, starvation, or denying reproductive rights).
shard972 8y ago
> If you look at population growth, starting with Malthus, people warned of the dangers of overpopulation and urged people to abstain from sex, so as not to have too many children. Despite grim warnings that didn't happen. It has already happened in the west, even birth-happy countries like france have gone under replacement rates and their native populations are decreasing. Even China is starting to slow down, hence why we see China moving towards introducing baby bonus schemes. Currently Africa is the big holdout with their population still rising drastically but currently there isn't really any plan for Africa to reduce it's population. If anything, with African emigration increasing and no other major forces counteracting it, we are probably going to see Africa continue to grow in population for years to come. For whatever reason, Africa just isn't jumping on the pill bandwagon.
KnightOfWords 8y ago
> Our only hope is a technical solution. There are many technical mitigations to the problem, but a technical solution is well out of reach I'm afraid. The problem with carbon removal/storage and the like isn't that it's technically impossible but the scope of the effort required - of a similar magnitude to that of global carbon extraction over the last century. Malthus was staved off by the efforts of the green revolution but its practises, intensize use of fertilizers and pesticides aided by mechanisation, may not be sustainable due to topsoil erosion and carbon emission. We don't know what the long-term carrying capacity of the planet is.

Bucephalus355 8y ago

Production is moving from China to here. Production here is much cleaner. Of course China lies about its pollution numbers. Why wouldn’t they? They heavily exaggerate about the GDP numbers. In Congress the Natural Resources Committee has also shown pretty conclusively that China has paid off the large environmental groups in the US to not speak of / address situation in China.

shard972 8y ago
To the people downvoting this, what else are we to believe in regards to CFC emissions apparently being illegal for quite a few years now, but yet we are seeing CFC emissions rise specifically in east Asia https://www.gizmodo.com.au/2018/12/industrial-chloroform-emissions-are-rising-and-thats-bad-news/ https://www.gizmodo.com.au/2018/12/industrial-chloroform-emi... If they lie about CFC emissions, why on earth would they be truthful about carbon dioxide?
- toufiqbarhamov 8y ago
  At a guess, the reaction might be down to the fact that the article talks specifically about a rise in U.S. carbon pollution, and the person you’re responding to pivoted to China.
woodandsteel 8y ago
So are you saying that Trump is correct that (anthropgenic) global climate change is a hoax invented by the Chinese to undermine the US?
- AnimalMuppet 8y ago
  No, that is not at all what Bucephalus355 is saying. Rather, the hoax is China's pollution being as low as is claimed.
  - woodandsteel 8y ago
    I don't know what the heck you are talking about. I have read countless articles in the mainstream media and environmental sites, and none of them say pollution in China is low. What they all say is that for decades pollution increased radically in China, but then about 5 years ago the government decided to take on the long, difficult task of trying to eliminate it. And since then major steps have been taken, and there have been some big improvements, like the air quality in Beijing, but that there is still a very long way yet to go. But now let me ask you this. You seem to be implying that you don't believe that anthropogenic global climate change is a hoax by the Chinese. If I am reading you correctly, then are you angry at Trump for claiming it is?