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Ah, my mistake. I agree that 40% of such a large population will not emigrate, yes. But the article is saying that 40% want to leave, not that 40% will leave.

Ah, my mistake. I agree that 40% of such a large population will not emigrate, yes. But the article is saying that 40% want to leave, not that 40% will leave. Migration is complicated, expensive, and painful. It’s perfectly reasonable to expect a significant gap between interest and follow through in this area. There is however some historical precedent here. When east and west Germany united, about 10% of the population moved from east to west, most women in the 18-29 bracket. The result is that by 2012 east Germany now has 89 women per 100 men (80/100 in rural areas), a significant statistical gap. While the causes of the above were different, I’d be pretty comfortable saying that the culture shock between east/west Germany was equal to or less than the culture shock between the US and English speaking Canada. So I wouldn’t find a young female migration in the 8-10% range surprising, although I would find it deeply alarming.

azinman2 8y ago
But to say that 40% want to leave would imply a considerable number will overcome whatever burdens one has, particularly in the US where the youth tend to be fairly geographically mobile in general compared to most of the world. If you told me 40% we’re displeased with the US and fantasize about living elsewhere, then I’d say that’s more realistic. But to actively want is another matter. I don’t think you can fairly compare the the unification of post-communist East Germany and everything that it implies (secret police, Cold War, differing economic systems and promises of prosperity, fashion, etc) with the US vs Canada, especially saying it was less different! Canada isn’t that fundamentally different in day to day life!
- village-idiot 8y ago
  Honestly, it seems like you’re trying to determine who has a “genuine” want to move vs. fantasizing. This is a pointless pursuit, it’s impossible to know what is anyone else’s head. If you want to nitpick the Pew’s polling, go find or make something better.

azinman2 8y ago

But to say that 40% want to leave would imply a considerable number will overcome whatever burdens one has, particularly in the US where the youth tend to be fairly geographically mobile in general compared to most of the world. If you told me 40% we’re displeased with the US and fantasize about living elsewhere, then I’d say that’s more realistic. But to actively want is another matter. I don’t think you can fairly compare the the unification of post-communist East Germany and everything that it implies (secret police, Cold War, differing economic systems and promises of prosperity, fashion, etc) with the US vs Canada, especially saying it was less different! Canada isn’t that fundamentally different in day to day life!

village-idiot 8y ago
Honestly, it seems like you’re trying to determine who has a “genuine” want to move vs. fantasizing. This is a pointless pursuit, it’s impossible to know what is anyone else’s head. If you want to nitpick the Pew’s polling, go find or make something better.