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The article implies through its journalistic voice that this is objectively bad for GB. The fact that capital has left the country does not have any implication
by saosebastiao 8y ago
The article implies through its journalistic voice that this is objectively bad for GB. The fact that capital has left the country does not have any implication towards the rationality of that move. Various questions to ponder:
1) If this is just capital moving around within their own respective due to legal jurisdictional changes, this may be rational and may not even matter at all. Sometimes you change your behavior due to a change in rules but it affects you neither positively nor negatively.
2) If capital is leaving due to economic fears of leaving the EU, it may be entirely irrational. It has yet to be seen the long term impacts of leaving the EU. It isn't even a settled matter as to whether being a part of the EU is a good thing. Switzerland has done just fine without the EU, Greece has made off like bandits by being a member of the EU, and Germany has likely slowed their potential economic growth by being tied to countries like Greece via the EU.
3) Capital system geographies are surprisingly robust to change. It took centuries for capital systems to move away from Venice and later the low countries. Those capital systems survived massive recessions, multiple unprecedented geopolitical shifts, and numerous invasions and wars. They didn't die because of political turmoil or economic turmoil, they died because other regions learned from them and incrementally improved on their innovations. Compared to the level of turmoil seen in Europe throughout the 16th-19th century, Brexit looks like a walk in the park.
I hold zero opinions on whether Brexit is good for Britain. But economically speaking, I don't see much to fear. I haven't seen much indication that they are trying to destroy their trade regime that was established by default through their membership in the EU, which means that it is still effectively a single market. They already have their own currency and it was already free floating. The banking industry may be prominent in the UK, but all the banks were already multinational and headquartered in various countries to begin with; HSBC isn't losing out on EU business any more than Citibank is. Why is everybody running around like the sky is falling?
- 2-chainz 8y agoAgreed, economics is very finicky and hard to predict with such a high degree of confidence at this scale of complexity. There is a lot of sensationalism and overreacting but until this actually happens and there is time for the market to stabilize it is impossible to know for sure whether this is a net good or net bad.