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This is a really great analysis of the situation but I think Ben, and Tim Cook in his public statements, are missing one important point: iOS 12 made the older

This is a really great analysis of the situation but I think Ben, and Tim Cook in his public statements, are missing one important point: iOS 12 made the older devices (iPhone 5s, 6) run _much_ better than they were running on iOS 11 [1, 2, 3]. They improved the software so much on this iteration of iOS that they probably relieved a lot of the hardware upgrade pressure users were beginning to feel in the first half of 2018. It will be very interesting to see if Apple even supports the iPhone 6 generation of hardware on the next version of iOS. If not, or if the software performance regresses significantly, I would expect the hardware upgrade pressure to really ratchet up again in the fall. [1] https://bgr.com/2018/09/20/ios-12-speed-test-vs-ios-11-on-iphone-5s-6-6s-se-7-8-and-x/ https://bgr.com/2018/09/20/ios-12-speed-test-vs-ios-11-on-ip... [2] https://techcrunch.com/2018/09/17/ios-12-makes-your-phone-faster-than-ever/ https://techcrunch.com/2018/09/17/ios-12-makes-your-phone-fa... [3] https://www.engadget.com/2018/09/18/apple-ios12-older-iphone-performance/ https://www.engadget.com/2018/09/18/apple-ios12-older-iphone...

zozbot123 8y ago
> This is a really great analysis of the situation but I think Ben, and Tim Cook in his public statements, are missing one important point: iOS 12 made the older devices (iPhone 5s, 6) run _much_ better than they were running on iOS 11. They improved the software so much on this iteration of iOS that they probably relieved a lot of the hardware upgrade pressure users were beginning to feel in the first half of 2018. Meh, I don't know about that. Sure, iOS 12 is great and all, but the iPhone 5S and 6 have just 1GB of RAM. With essentially all mobile devices not using swap at all (due to the highly dubious endurance of the low-grade, Chinese-installed eMMC storage), that's just barely enough for the modern Web these days - and newer iOS apps can't be that much lighter, either! So, I fear that the iPhone 5S and 6 are practically on borrowed time, no matter what Apple does. The Nexus 5 is in far better shape, seeing as it came out with 2GB and will be able to run pmOS (on a mainline kernel, no less)...
- wlesieutre 8y ago
  Going a step newer, the Nexus 5X has common boot loop failure for which the solution is to flash a custom ROM that kills the pair of big A57 cores and use only the four smaller A53 cores. So it's not all sunshine and roses on the Android side either. A friend of mine had a 5X replaced under warranty and immediately dumped it on eBay and bought something else because there was no sign of an official fix coming for this. EDIT: I wasn't sure if this is still up to date, but after some research it looks like "custom ROM to disable the fast cores" is still the state-of-the-art solution https://www.reddit.com/r/nexus5x/comments/8pbg5n/my_guide_to_fixing_the_nexus_5x_bootloop/ https://www.reddit.com/r/nexus5x/comments/8pbg5n/my_guide_to...
- graeme 8y ago
  Sure, but if you were content running an iphone 6 on ios 11, then it’s certainly faster this year on 12.
  - josefresco 8y ago
    Not really. Source: iPhone 6 user. Couldn't upgrade to iOS 12 because of lack of space. Finally made room and after being told 12 would speed my device I had high hopes. Turns out, I don't notice any difference. App launch times, keyboard launch times, and overall responsiveness is just barely tolerable. 6S devices feel like light speed in comparison.
    - graeme 8y ago
      You may be right actually. I looked for speed tests, and apple insider showed that some apps were faster, some slower. I do have an old 6, but its not my main phone. I thought it was faster, but haven't used it enough to say. I would check your battery health under battery settings. If it's under 80% that could be causing the issue. The 6s has 2 gb of ram, which is a big part of the difference.
      - josefresco 8y ago
        Thanks for the reply. I actually did check my battery, purchasing one of those apps that was trending about 6 months back when news broke of Apple's throttling. Battery is fine - phone is just slow which as you mentioned is probably because of the RAM situation.
- nicoburns 8y ago
  > that's just barely enough for the modern Web these days - and newer iOS apps can't be that much lighter, either! You might be surprised. Desktop safari is significantly more resource (including memory) efficient than Chrome and Firefox. And iOS apps are written in objective-c and swift, which are also a lot more memory efficient than say Java or JavaScript. Of course, 1GB of RAM is still pretty small. But if the idevices can last 5 years instead of 2, that would be pretty significant. I don't think anyone expects them to last forever.
  - wlesieutre 8y ago
    I have two coworkers still running 4Ses, which are more than 7 years old now. Smallish company, maybe 25 people in my office. It still makes phone calls, sends texts, and takes photos, so they'll upgrade when it dies. Stuck on iOS 9 with that so it might not be a good idea from a security perspective, but I'm impressed with the hardware. At least one of them I know had a screen replacement, but still.
acdha 8y ago
> They improved the software so much on this iteration of iOS that they probably relieved a lot of the hardware upgrade pressure users were beginning to feel in the first half of 2018. Another other side of this is that they've given people good reasons not to upgrade: I've been surprised by the number of people who commented that the new phones are uncomfortably large to hold and, of course, a fair number of people don't like losing the headphone jack. None of those are complete showstoppers but since costs have also gone up around 20% beyond the rate of inflation[1], you don't need to give people much of a reason to delay a purchase which isn't necessary since everyone knows the phone you buy next year will be even better. 1. A quick spot-check comparing the iPhone 6S & 6S Plus we bought in 2015 vs. the XS / XS Max now has it at 24% with no improvement in storage capacity.
- deleted 8y ago
  [deleted]
- robmaceachern 8y ago
  Yes, I totally agree. I think there are a constellation of factors that influence the upgrade decisions of users, but I have found it surprising how much the software has been under-discussed following Apple's miss. If someone was happy enough with their iPhone 5s, 6, or 6s running iOS 11 when the X was released (Fall 2017) then I suspect they didn't feel much more pressure to upgrade when they were running iOS 12 and the Xs was released (Fall 2018).
- bradknowles 8y ago
  The showstopper for me is FaceID. I won’t buy a device where that is the only biometric AuthN solution available. If/when my 7plus dies, I’ll buy an 8plus, either new or used. I won’t buy anything newer than an 8, until such time as they give me fingerprint ID back in some form. Hard stop.
  - jakobegger 8y ago
    I can't see Apple returning to Touch ID. I think that Face ID is so much better in every way, and I can't wait for Macbooks to adopt it as well. I'm pretty sure that if you like Finger print sensors, you'll have to switch to Android at some point.
LeicaLatte 8y ago
software really is eating the world. in this case, apple's profits. also software that causes such "harm" is typically written by someone else. it is funny seeing apple themselves write and distribute the harmful piece.
SimeVidas 8y ago
iPhone 6 user here, can confirm. I will continue using this silly, old phone for a while longer because it still gets the job done just fine.
oflannabhra 8y ago
I don't think this surprised Apple. In their September 2018 event [0], Lisa Jackson took the stage to say that Apple sees longer-lived devices as a goal of the company, from both a consumer and environmental standpoint. She specifically called out the renewed life that iOS 12 will bring to older devices. On top of that, at WWDC 2018 [1], Federighi heralded the new life customers will find when iOS 12 would be released to 5 year old phones. I don't think that any of this has surprised Apple. I think they have long seen that peak iPhone (and a mature market) is coming, or even already arrived. Apple is focusing on their install base, which is enormous (over 1.5 billion devices [2]), and is figuring out ways to leverage that advantage. They know that the upgrades will come, albeit more slowly, but in the meantime, they can provide services, accessories, and eventually new products that customers will be fully willing to pay for. I think it is obvious that there is a pretty big transition that the company is in the middle of, but I think they are clearly best positioned to take advantage of that position. It would, frankly, be baffling for Apple to suddenly change course direction over a single quarter. I think they are setting this course (ie, longevity of devices) because they think it is the right thing to do for their customers, similar to how they uniquely ran the battery replacement program. [3] [0] - http://live.arstechnica.com/apples-september-12-2018-gather-round-event/#post-1373731 http://live.arstechnica.com/apples-september-12-2018-gather-... [1] - http://live.arstechnica.com/wwdc-2018/#post-1319367 http://live.arstechnica.com/wwdc-2018/#post-1319367 [2] - http://www.asymco.com/2018/02/27/the-number/ http://www.asymco.com/2018/02/27/the-number/ [3] - “We did not consider in any way, shape, or form, what it would do to upgrade rates. We did it because we thought it was the right thing to do for our customers. And sitting here today, I don’t know what effect it will have. And again, it’s not and was not in our thought process of deciding to do what we’ve done.” - Tim Cook
- fauigerzigerk 8y ago
  If all (or most of) the growth is in services as Apple claims, why hike hardware prices so much that it could over time erode their installed base? I believe the answer is that Apple doesn't really believe that service revenue will grow fast enough to compensate for longer hardware replacement cycles. And that belief is probably justified because their service offering doesn't seem very robust at this point.
achompas 8y ago
I don't think Ben misses this point. He concludes his pessimistic take with: > It’s a bit of a hodgepodge with one primary takeaway: convincing customers to upgrade “good enough” phones is both challenging and unpredictable, and Apple can’t simply assume it will happen at the rate it has previously. Ultimately he claims that users will eventually upgrade to the latest flagship iOS device. I think you (and I) disagree with his claim, though! (I also might be falling prey to confirmation bias myself, specifically on the topic of phone pricing...)
- alistairSH 8y ago
  users will eventually upgrade to the latest flagship iOS device I know I fall into that group of users. I own a 7 currently, it's a few years old, but works well enough. I see no reason to upgrade to an XS today. If the 7 fails tomorrow, I'll buy an XS.
  - JumpCrisscross 8y ago
    > If the 7 fails tomorrow, I'll buy an XS. Ditto. Loved my 7. Walked into a pool with it in my pocket. Now have an XS. Typing this on a 2015 MacBook Air I only have because I traded my 2013 Air $500 to a neighbor for it. Plan on keeping it another 2 to 3 years; same, at the very least, for the iPhone. They're well-built products that tend to work, and have warranties that show for it.
    - saagarjha 8y ago
      > Loved my 7. Walked into a pool with it in my pocket. I'm surprised your phone died, given that iPhone 7 is relatively water resistant.
  - iambateman 8y ago
    Same. I appreciate when a product can last 5+ years of daily use. I hope Apple will use it's hoard of cash to become like Toyota - long-term reliability promoting trust and in turn promoting long-term cash flow.
eeeeeeeeeeeee 8y ago
Yep, substantially so. So the battery program plus the iOS update both gave people reasons to hold on to their phones longer. I usually upgrade every year, but the new phones just aren't enough of an upgrade from the original X to warrant it, especially given the much higher cost.

zozbot123 8y ago

> This is a really great analysis of the situation but I think Ben, and Tim Cook in his public statements, are missing one important point: iOS 12 made the older devices (iPhone 5s, 6) run _much_ better than they were running on iOS 11. They improved the software so much on this iteration of iOS that they probably relieved a lot of the hardware upgrade pressure users were beginning to feel in the first half of 2018. Meh, I don't know about that. Sure, iOS 12 is great and all, but the iPhone 5S and 6 have just 1GB of RAM. With essentially all mobile devices not using swap at all (due to the highly dubious endurance of the low-grade, Chinese-installed eMMC storage), that's just barely enough for the modern Web these days - and newer iOS apps can't be that much lighter, either! So, I fear that the iPhone 5S and 6 are practically on borrowed time, no matter what Apple does. The Nexus 5 is in far better shape, seeing as it came out with 2GB and will be able to run pmOS (on a mainline kernel, no less)...

wlesieutre 8y ago
Going a step newer, the Nexus 5X has common boot loop failure for which the solution is to flash a custom ROM that kills the pair of big A57 cores and use only the four smaller A53 cores. So it's not all sunshine and roses on the Android side either. A friend of mine had a 5X replaced under warranty and immediately dumped it on eBay and bought something else because there was no sign of an official fix coming for this. EDIT: I wasn't sure if this is still up to date, but after some research it looks like "custom ROM to disable the fast cores" is still the state-of-the-art solution https://www.reddit.com/r/nexus5x/comments/8pbg5n/my_guide_to_fixing_the_nexus_5x_bootloop/ https://www.reddit.com/r/nexus5x/comments/8pbg5n/my_guide_to...
graeme 8y ago
Sure, but if you were content running an iphone 6 on ios 11, then it’s certainly faster this year on 12.
- josefresco 8y ago
  Not really. Source: iPhone 6 user. Couldn't upgrade to iOS 12 because of lack of space. Finally made room and after being told 12 would speed my device I had high hopes. Turns out, I don't notice any difference. App launch times, keyboard launch times, and overall responsiveness is just barely tolerable. 6S devices feel like light speed in comparison.
  - graeme 8y ago
    You may be right actually. I looked for speed tests, and apple insider showed that some apps were faster, some slower. I do have an old 6, but its not my main phone. I thought it was faster, but haven't used it enough to say. I would check your battery health under battery settings. If it's under 80% that could be causing the issue. The 6s has 2 gb of ram, which is a big part of the difference.
    - josefresco 8y ago
      Thanks for the reply. I actually did check my battery, purchasing one of those apps that was trending about 6 months back when news broke of Apple's throttling. Battery is fine - phone is just slow which as you mentioned is probably because of the RAM situation.
nicoburns 8y ago
> that's just barely enough for the modern Web these days - and newer iOS apps can't be that much lighter, either! You might be surprised. Desktop safari is significantly more resource (including memory) efficient than Chrome and Firefox. And iOS apps are written in objective-c and swift, which are also a lot more memory efficient than say Java or JavaScript. Of course, 1GB of RAM is still pretty small. But if the idevices can last 5 years instead of 2, that would be pretty significant. I don't think anyone expects them to last forever.
- wlesieutre 8y ago
  I have two coworkers still running 4Ses, which are more than 7 years old now. Smallish company, maybe 25 people in my office. It still makes phone calls, sends texts, and takes photos, so they'll upgrade when it dies. Stuck on iOS 9 with that so it might not be a good idea from a security perspective, but I'm impressed with the hardware. At least one of them I know had a screen replacement, but still.

acdha 8y ago

> They improved the software so much on this iteration of iOS that they probably relieved a lot of the hardware upgrade pressure users were beginning to feel in the first half of 2018. Another other side of this is that they've given people good reasons not to upgrade: I've been surprised by the number of people who commented that the new phones are uncomfortably large to hold and, of course, a fair number of people don't like losing the headphone jack. None of those are complete showstoppers but since costs have also gone up around 20% beyond the rate of inflation[1], you don't need to give people much of a reason to delay a purchase which isn't necessary since everyone knows the phone you buy next year will be even better. 1. A quick spot-check comparing the iPhone 6S & 6S Plus we bought in 2015 vs. the XS / XS Max now has it at 24% with no improvement in storage capacity.

deleted 8y ago
[deleted]
robmaceachern 8y ago
Yes, I totally agree. I think there are a constellation of factors that influence the upgrade decisions of users, but I have found it surprising how much the software has been under-discussed following Apple's miss. If someone was happy enough with their iPhone 5s, 6, or 6s running iOS 11 when the X was released (Fall 2017) then I suspect they didn't feel much more pressure to upgrade when they were running iOS 12 and the Xs was released (Fall 2018).
bradknowles 8y ago
The showstopper for me is FaceID. I won’t buy a device where that is the only biometric AuthN solution available. If/when my 7plus dies, I’ll buy an 8plus, either new or used. I won’t buy anything newer than an 8, until such time as they give me fingerprint ID back in some form. Hard stop.
- jakobegger 8y ago
  I can't see Apple returning to Touch ID. I think that Face ID is so much better in every way, and I can't wait for Macbooks to adopt it as well. I'm pretty sure that if you like Finger print sensors, you'll have to switch to Android at some point.

LeicaLatte 8y ago

software really is eating the world. in this case, apple's profits. also software that causes such "harm" is typically written by someone else. it is funny seeing apple themselves write and distribute the harmful piece.

SimeVidas 8y ago

iPhone 6 user here, can confirm. I will continue using this silly, old phone for a while longer because it still gets the job done just fine.

oflannabhra 8y ago

I don't think this surprised Apple. In their September 2018 event [0], Lisa Jackson took the stage to say that Apple sees longer-lived devices as a goal of the company, from both a consumer and environmental standpoint. She specifically called out the renewed life that iOS 12 will bring to older devices. On top of that, at WWDC 2018 [1], Federighi heralded the new life customers will find when iOS 12 would be released to 5 year old phones. I don't think that any of this has surprised Apple. I think they have long seen that peak iPhone (and a mature market) is coming, or even already arrived. Apple is focusing on their install base, which is enormous (over 1.5 billion devices [2]), and is figuring out ways to leverage that advantage. They know that the upgrades will come, albeit more slowly, but in the meantime, they can provide services, accessories, and eventually new products that customers will be fully willing to pay for. I think it is obvious that there is a pretty big transition that the company is in the middle of, but I think they are clearly best positioned to take advantage of that position. It would, frankly, be baffling for Apple to suddenly change course direction over a single quarter. I think they are setting this course (ie, longevity of devices) because they think it is the right thing to do for their customers, similar to how they uniquely ran the battery replacement program. [3] [0] - http://live.arstechnica.com/apples-september-12-2018-gather-round-event/#post-1373731 http://live.arstechnica.com/apples-september-12-2018-gather-... [1] - http://live.arstechnica.com/wwdc-2018/#post-1319367 http://live.arstechnica.com/wwdc-2018/#post-1319367 [2] - http://www.asymco.com/2018/02/27/the-number/ http://www.asymco.com/2018/02/27/the-number/ [3] - “We did not consider in any way, shape, or form, what it would do to upgrade rates. We did it because we thought it was the right thing to do for our customers. And sitting here today, I don’t know what effect it will have. And again, it’s not and was not in our thought process of deciding to do what we’ve done.” - Tim Cook

fauigerzigerk 8y ago
If all (or most of) the growth is in services as Apple claims, why hike hardware prices so much that it could over time erode their installed base? I believe the answer is that Apple doesn't really believe that service revenue will grow fast enough to compensate for longer hardware replacement cycles. And that belief is probably justified because their service offering doesn't seem very robust at this point.

achompas 8y ago

I don't think Ben misses this point. He concludes his pessimistic take with: > It’s a bit of a hodgepodge with one primary takeaway: convincing customers to upgrade “good enough” phones is both challenging and unpredictable, and Apple can’t simply assume it will happen at the rate it has previously. Ultimately he claims that users will eventually upgrade to the latest flagship iOS device. I think you (and I) disagree with his claim, though! (I also might be falling prey to confirmation bias myself, specifically on the topic of phone pricing...)

alistairSH 8y ago
users will eventually upgrade to the latest flagship iOS device I know I fall into that group of users. I own a 7 currently, it's a few years old, but works well enough. I see no reason to upgrade to an XS today. If the 7 fails tomorrow, I'll buy an XS.
- JumpCrisscross 8y ago
  > If the 7 fails tomorrow, I'll buy an XS. Ditto. Loved my 7. Walked into a pool with it in my pocket. Now have an XS. Typing this on a 2015 MacBook Air I only have because I traded my 2013 Air $500 to a neighbor for it. Plan on keeping it another 2 to 3 years; same, at the very least, for the iPhone. They're well-built products that tend to work, and have warranties that show for it.
  - saagarjha 8y ago
    > Loved my 7. Walked into a pool with it in my pocket. I'm surprised your phone died, given that iPhone 7 is relatively water resistant.
- iambateman 8y ago
  Same. I appreciate when a product can last 5+ years of daily use. I hope Apple will use it's hoard of cash to become like Toyota - long-term reliability promoting trust and in turn promoting long-term cash flow.

eeeeeeeeeeeee 8y ago

Yep, substantially so. So the battery program plus the iOS update both gave people reasons to hold on to their phones longer. I usually upgrade every year, but the new phones just aren't enough of an upgrade from the original X to warrant it, especially given the much higher cost.