4 ms·

I suspect it will take about ten seconds for the trade concerns the doom and gloomers are worried about to get resolved. UK is the second largest economy in th

I suspect it will take about ten seconds for the trade concerns the doom and gloomers are worried about to get resolved. UK is the second largest economy in the EU. The idea that they won't quickly and easily resolve trade concerns seems silly. EU member states will still want UK money.

jpfr 8y ago
> EU member states will still want UK money. Those shiny Euros the UK is coining? Seriously, the banking services provided by the city will move to Paris and Frankfurt in no time. Outside the EU, London has zero structural advantage or lock-in.
- repolfx 8y ago
  Do you actually work in the City or in the financial industry? There are many cities in the EU. If London has no advantages other than being in the EU then why is so much financial work done there? By the way, unlike what many in this thread seem to think, being in the EU is of limited value for business protection. France and Germany via their proxies have been trying to pull financial work out of London for years - the EU Commission already tried to illegally ban Eurozone countries from using the UK for certain types of trading and clearing, and the British government had to sue the EU in its own courts to get the ban lifted (said ban entirely violated all the treaties which explicitly forbid that, and the Commission knew it, which goes to show what kind of government we're talking about here). Despite these challenges the UK has done very well and not just in finance. In 2018, out of the big western European economies (the UK, France, Germany, Italy) which do you think had some of the best GDP growth? https://order-order.com/2018/11/09/eu-experiencing-significant-growth-slowdown/ https://order-order.com/2018/11/09/eu-experiencing-significa... Yes, in the November quarterly GDP figures released by Eurostat, they showed the UK did the best. If you believed what you read in the press you'd think the UK economy was about to collapse, but it's not the case.
  - jayalpha 8y ago
    "Do you actually work in the City or in the financial industry?" Well, sorry for the pun, but you obviously don't: "By the way, unlike what many in this thread seem to think, being in the EU is of limited value for business protection. France and Germany via their proxies have been trying to pull financial work out of London for years - the EU Commission already tried to illegally ban Eurozone countries from using the UK for certain types of trading and clearing" The EU wanted to have the EURO clearing in countries that have the Euro. The EU supreme court, that is hated so much in the UK, actually ruled that such a demand can not be made since the UK is in the EU (but not in the Euro). Since the UK is leaving the EU now, Euroclearing will move back to the Eurozone with a sunrise period granted by the EU. https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/financial-services-city-london-european-union-lch-lse-euro-clearing-ecb-brexit-latest-a8272356.html https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/financial-services-city... It does not make sense to look only of the cost of something (e.g. EU membership fees) without looking of the benefits gained. Allowance of euro clearing was one of the benefits.
    - repolfx 8y ago
      I do work in both. What sort of "benefit" does the EU's own civil service try to take away? There is no technical reason why euro clearing must happen physically inside the eurozone. And why do you think the Commission tried to pass a law that violates the treaties? It's because they know that the ECJ frequently ignores the treaties and laws, and does whatever is most advantageous to the EU's ideological goals regardless of what's written - see their ruling on cancelling Article 50 for an especially clear example. I'm sure you can see why I might consider a "benefit" that the EU itself has tried so hard to illegally remove not an especially compelling argument. In fact their position is still illegal. EU regs say any jurisdiction that is "equivalent" from a regulations perspective has financial access sufficient to perform clearing, but the Commission has decided that on the day of leaving, despite having still identical regulations, the UK will not be "equivalent". You don't have to be a lawyer to see that if two laws start out identical and neither is changed, then they are still equivalent, but the Commission claims they aren't. This is entirely predictable given their past behaviour, and this time, the court will take their side.
- Consultant32452 8y ago
  Again, it'll take about ten seconds for those London Banks to spawn subsidiaries in a member state to take care of that. Meanwhile they get to drop the EU common external tariff. That alone will be a significant economic benefit to UK.
  - CaptainZapp 8y ago
    Again, it'll take about ten seconds for those London Banks to spawn subsidiaries in a member state to take care of that You are quite clearly misinformed what I actually takes in most European countries to get a banking license. It's not quite the same thing as opening a corporate entity in, say, Delaware. And as the EU made quite clear: Renting a mail box in Frankfurt and setting up a limited company won't quite do the trick.
    - Consultant32452 8y ago
      However, the LSE says that relocation would have little financial impact as LCH has a clearing house in Paris that is fully authorised under EU rules. https://www.bbc.com/news/business-40258449 https://www.bbc.com/news/business-40258449 So a few things from that article are important. The first is that a subsidiary already exists. The second is that some clearing already occurs in the US, so there's precedent for non-EU Euro clearing. And third, it looks like the European Central Bank has been trying to get clearing out of London anyways, but was stopped by the courts. So it's not likely to be stopped since the US clears transaction, and even if it is there's already a subsidiary in France to pass it all through. There'll be some local job hits, but the sky is falling stuff is nonsense. Counties and businesses will still want to do business with UK and they will figure out how to do it very quickly.

jpfr 8y ago

> EU member states will still want UK money. Those shiny Euros the UK is coining? Seriously, the banking services provided by the city will move to Paris and Frankfurt in no time. Outside the EU, London has zero structural advantage or lock-in.

repolfx 8y ago
Do you actually work in the City or in the financial industry? There are many cities in the EU. If London has no advantages other than being in the EU then why is so much financial work done there? By the way, unlike what many in this thread seem to think, being in the EU is of limited value for business protection. France and Germany via their proxies have been trying to pull financial work out of London for years - the EU Commission already tried to illegally ban Eurozone countries from using the UK for certain types of trading and clearing, and the British government had to sue the EU in its own courts to get the ban lifted (said ban entirely violated all the treaties which explicitly forbid that, and the Commission knew it, which goes to show what kind of government we're talking about here). Despite these challenges the UK has done very well and not just in finance. In 2018, out of the big western European economies (the UK, France, Germany, Italy) which do you think had some of the best GDP growth? https://order-order.com/2018/11/09/eu-experiencing-significant-growth-slowdown/ https://order-order.com/2018/11/09/eu-experiencing-significa... Yes, in the November quarterly GDP figures released by Eurostat, they showed the UK did the best. If you believed what you read in the press you'd think the UK economy was about to collapse, but it's not the case.
- jayalpha 8y ago
  "Do you actually work in the City or in the financial industry?" Well, sorry for the pun, but you obviously don't: "By the way, unlike what many in this thread seem to think, being in the EU is of limited value for business protection. France and Germany via their proxies have been trying to pull financial work out of London for years - the EU Commission already tried to illegally ban Eurozone countries from using the UK for certain types of trading and clearing" The EU wanted to have the EURO clearing in countries that have the Euro. The EU supreme court, that is hated so much in the UK, actually ruled that such a demand can not be made since the UK is in the EU (but not in the Euro). Since the UK is leaving the EU now, Euroclearing will move back to the Eurozone with a sunrise period granted by the EU. https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/financial-services-city-london-european-union-lch-lse-euro-clearing-ecb-brexit-latest-a8272356.html https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/financial-services-city... It does not make sense to look only of the cost of something (e.g. EU membership fees) without looking of the benefits gained. Allowance of euro clearing was one of the benefits.
  - repolfx 8y ago
    I do work in both. What sort of "benefit" does the EU's own civil service try to take away? There is no technical reason why euro clearing must happen physically inside the eurozone. And why do you think the Commission tried to pass a law that violates the treaties? It's because they know that the ECJ frequently ignores the treaties and laws, and does whatever is most advantageous to the EU's ideological goals regardless of what's written - see their ruling on cancelling Article 50 for an especially clear example. I'm sure you can see why I might consider a "benefit" that the EU itself has tried so hard to illegally remove not an especially compelling argument. In fact their position is still illegal. EU regs say any jurisdiction that is "equivalent" from a regulations perspective has financial access sufficient to perform clearing, but the Commission has decided that on the day of leaving, despite having still identical regulations, the UK will not be "equivalent". You don't have to be a lawyer to see that if two laws start out identical and neither is changed, then they are still equivalent, but the Commission claims they aren't. This is entirely predictable given their past behaviour, and this time, the court will take their side.
Consultant32452 8y ago
Again, it'll take about ten seconds for those London Banks to spawn subsidiaries in a member state to take care of that. Meanwhile they get to drop the EU common external tariff. That alone will be a significant economic benefit to UK.
- CaptainZapp 8y ago
  Again, it'll take about ten seconds for those London Banks to spawn subsidiaries in a member state to take care of that You are quite clearly misinformed what I actually takes in most European countries to get a banking license. It's not quite the same thing as opening a corporate entity in, say, Delaware. And as the EU made quite clear: Renting a mail box in Frankfurt and setting up a limited company won't quite do the trick.
  - Consultant32452 8y ago
    However, the LSE says that relocation would have little financial impact as LCH has a clearing house in Paris that is fully authorised under EU rules. https://www.bbc.com/news/business-40258449 https://www.bbc.com/news/business-40258449 So a few things from that article are important. The first is that a subsidiary already exists. The second is that some clearing already occurs in the US, so there's precedent for non-EU Euro clearing. And third, it looks like the European Central Bank has been trying to get clearing out of London anyways, but was stopped by the courts. So it's not likely to be stopped since the US clears transaction, and even if it is there's already a subsidiary in France to pass it all through. There'll be some local job hits, but the sky is falling stuff is nonsense. Counties and businesses will still want to do business with UK and they will figure out how to do it very quickly.