4 ms·

A truly incredible statistic: “40% of women younger than 30 would like to leave the U.S.” That says a lot about the extent to which Trump has alienated young

A truly incredible statistic: “40% of women younger than 30 would like to leave the U.S.” That says a lot about the extent to which Trump has alienated young women.

azinman2 8y ago
That number seems extremely suspect. If that were really true, it would bubble about culturally in all kinds of ways.
- akhilcacharya 8y ago
  Record turnout at the women’s marches and the midterms seem like a good indicator. Wouldn’t surprise me if the question response was just hyperbole from the answerer.
- rconti 8y ago
  What more proof are you waiting to see? Marches, record numbers of political candidates...
- village-idiot 8y ago
  .... Have you not been paying attention? A lot of women are pissed.
  - azinman2 8y ago
    Which is very different from nearly half the population wanting to permanently emigrate.
    - toufiqbarhamov 8y ago
      Maybe they see the writing on the wall with the president, senate, and especially Supreme Court and don’t want to stick around to see when their human rights get rolled back?
    - village-idiot 8y ago
      Yes, but if you’re saying “I don’t see any other evidence of dissatisfaction from that cohort” then that’s because you didn’t notice it, not because it isn’t there.
      - azinman2 8y ago
        That's not what I'm saying at all. I'm specifically saying that I find that hard to believe that 40% of female youth would emigrate, or 40% of any large scale demographic of US citizens for that matter.
        village-idiot 8y ago
        Ah, my mistake. I agree that 40% of such a large population will not emigrate, yes. But the article is saying that 40% want to leave, not that 40% will leave. Migration is complicated, expensive, and painful. It’s perfectly reasonable to expect a significant gap between interest and follow through in this area. There is however some historical precedent here. When east and west Germany united, about 10% of the population moved from east to west, most women in the 18-29 bracket. The result is that by 2012 east Germany now has 89 women per 100 men (80/100 in rural areas), a significant statistical gap. While the causes of the above were different, I’d be pretty comfortable saying that the culture shock between east/west Germany was equal to or less than the culture shock between the US and English speaking Canada. So I wouldn’t find a young female migration in the 8-10% range surprising, although I would find it deeply alarming.
        azinman2 8y ago
        But to say that 40% want to leave would imply a considerable number will overcome whatever burdens one has, particularly in the US where the youth tend to be fairly geographically mobile in general compared to most of the world. If you told me 40% we’re displeased with the US and fantasize about living elsewhere, then I’d say that’s more realistic. But to actively want is another matter. I don’t think you can fairly compare the the unification of post-communist East Germany and everything that it implies (secret police, Cold War, differing economic systems and promises of prosperity, fashion, etc) with the US vs Canada, especially saying it was less different! Canada isn’t that fundamentally different in day to day life!
kohanz 8y ago
I agree it's quite high, but knowing the "baseline", whatever that is would help give some context. They give the Bush & Obama numbers for other categories, but I didn't see it for this one. But based on what's there, I don't think it'd be far off to say that, at any given time, about 1 in 4 women under 30 wants to leave the US. Some of those reasons may have nothing to do with politics. Still, the sharp increase for the current president is notable.
ssnistfajen 8y ago
40% is just ridiculous. As we've seen in past US presidential elections, the vast majority of Americans who claim they want to move out of the country will not actually do it. Moving to a major metropolitan area within the US that aligns with their values is much easier.
- josefresco 8y ago
  Probably true, but this Presidency and the corruption of the majority party is unprecedented.
- village-idiot 8y ago
  Wanting to do something never results in 100% conversion for anything, let alone for something as difficult as migration. "But they don't follow through!" is a lazy take.

A truly incredible statistic: “40% of women younger than 30 would like to leave the U.S.” That says a lot about the extent to which Trump has alienated young women.

azinman2 8y ago

That number seems extremely suspect. If that were really true, it would bubble about culturally in all kinds of ways.

akhilcacharya 8y ago
Record turnout at the women’s marches and the midterms seem like a good indicator. Wouldn’t surprise me if the question response was just hyperbole from the answerer.
rconti 8y ago
What more proof are you waiting to see? Marches, record numbers of political candidates...
village-idiot 8y ago
.... Have you not been paying attention? A lot of women are pissed.
- azinman2 8y ago
  Which is very different from nearly half the population wanting to permanently emigrate.
  - toufiqbarhamov 8y ago
    Maybe they see the writing on the wall with the president, senate, and especially Supreme Court and don’t want to stick around to see when their human rights get rolled back?
  - village-idiot 8y ago
    Yes, but if you’re saying “I don’t see any other evidence of dissatisfaction from that cohort” then that’s because you didn’t notice it, not because it isn’t there.
    - azinman2 8y ago
      That's not what I'm saying at all. I'm specifically saying that I find that hard to believe that 40% of female youth would emigrate, or 40% of any large scale demographic of US citizens for that matter.
      - village-idiot 8y ago
        Ah, my mistake. I agree that 40% of such a large population will not emigrate, yes. But the article is saying that 40% want to leave, not that 40% will leave. Migration is complicated, expensive, and painful. It’s perfectly reasonable to expect a significant gap between interest and follow through in this area. There is however some historical precedent here. When east and west Germany united, about 10% of the population moved from east to west, most women in the 18-29 bracket. The result is that by 2012 east Germany now has 89 women per 100 men (80/100 in rural areas), a significant statistical gap. While the causes of the above were different, I’d be pretty comfortable saying that the culture shock between east/west Germany was equal to or less than the culture shock between the US and English speaking Canada. So I wouldn’t find a young female migration in the 8-10% range surprising, although I would find it deeply alarming.
        azinman2 8y ago
        But to say that 40% want to leave would imply a considerable number will overcome whatever burdens one has, particularly in the US where the youth tend to be fairly geographically mobile in general compared to most of the world. If you told me 40% we’re displeased with the US and fantasize about living elsewhere, then I’d say that’s more realistic. But to actively want is another matter. I don’t think you can fairly compare the the unification of post-communist East Germany and everything that it implies (secret police, Cold War, differing economic systems and promises of prosperity, fashion, etc) with the US vs Canada, especially saying it was less different! Canada isn’t that fundamentally different in day to day life!

kohanz 8y ago

I agree it's quite high, but knowing the "baseline", whatever that is would help give some context. They give the Bush & Obama numbers for other categories, but I didn't see it for this one. But based on what's there, I don't think it'd be far off to say that, at any given time, about 1 in 4 women under 30 wants to leave the US. Some of those reasons may have nothing to do with politics. Still, the sharp increase for the current president is notable.

ssnistfajen 8y ago

40% is just ridiculous. As we've seen in past US presidential elections, the vast majority of Americans who claim they want to move out of the country will not actually do it. Moving to a major metropolitan area within the US that aligns with their values is much easier.

josefresco 8y ago
Probably true, but this Presidency and the corruption of the majority party is unprecedented.
village-idiot 8y ago
Wanting to do something never results in 100% conversion for anything, let alone for something as difficult as migration. "But they don't follow through!" is a lazy take.