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This is an obvious idea hampered by the business model impossibilities of owning $20,000 battery packs which you can only improve in value by a few dollars ever

by fipple 8y ago

This is an obvious idea hampered by the business model impossibilities of owning $20,000 battery packs which you can only improve in value by a few dollars every time you exchange them. The inventory / infrastructure / damage costs are too high to justify it.

yholio 8y ago
A battery pack has between 500 and 1000 charge cycles, so each swap on the $20K pack will recover you $20-40 in depreciation. It's the main cost of using an electric car. So then, the business challenge becomes to extract more value from a pack than a car owner can. There are many opportunities to do that: - much improved inventory management, buy in bulk, monitor and adjust charging parameters etc. to prolong battery life based on observed performance of the specific battery type. - this allows you to optimize battery purchase and chemistry to minimize overall cost even at the risk of a reduced lifetime - centralized recharge gives you economies of scale to purchase cheap electricity during the night and enter all sorts of contracts where you can earn money by acting as a last-resort supplier at peak times, without actually using significant charge cycles on your inventory. - the same economy of scale is passed down to customers who won't be bothered to install high power fast charge circuits, or are simply unable to. - differential pricing based on customer needs, for example, new, top performance packs for home users and degraded packs with lower peak current for less sensitive customers, taxis and commercial fleets etc. - batteries depreciate even when they sit charged; a modular system will allow customers to keep (and pay rent for) a single or low capacity unit on a regular basis for city use and opt for full capacity when they really need the extra range.
- prostoalex 8y ago
  > each swap on the $20K pack will recover you $20-40 in depreciation Just the labor cost for the procedure is likely to greatly exceed the $20-40 estimate.
  - icebraining 8y ago
    What labor? https://youtube.com/watch?v=H5V0vL3nnHY https://youtube.com/watch?v=H5V0vL3nnHY
  - jdeibele 8y ago
    https://www.tesla.com/videos/battery-swap-event https://www.tesla.com/videos/battery-swap-event They replaced the battery in 90 seconds and it was completely automated. I really like the idea of having gas stations replaced with battery stations. Drive in to the "pump", put in your credit card, and let the automated system replace your battery. The space that was used for tanks could be devoted to charging infrastructure.
- greglindahl 8y ago
  I don't think that the data for Tesla batteries supports your 500-1000 cycles number.
- outworlder 8y ago
  > A battery pack has between 500 and 1000 charge cycles, I am very skeptical of that claim. This seems to hold true for laptop batteries. Not cars.

by fipple 8y ago

yholio 8y ago

A battery pack has between 500 and 1000 charge cycles, so each swap on the $20K pack will recover you $20-40 in depreciation. It's the main cost of using an electric car. So then, the business challenge becomes to extract more value from a pack than a car owner can. There are many opportunities to do that: - much improved inventory management, buy in bulk, monitor and adjust charging parameters etc. to prolong battery life based on observed performance of the specific battery type. - this allows you to optimize battery purchase and chemistry to minimize overall cost even at the risk of a reduced lifetime - centralized recharge gives you economies of scale to purchase cheap electricity during the night and enter all sorts of contracts where you can earn money by acting as a last-resort supplier at peak times, without actually using significant charge cycles on your inventory. - the same economy of scale is passed down to customers who won't be bothered to install high power fast charge circuits, or are simply unable to. - differential pricing based on customer needs, for example, new, top performance packs for home users and degraded packs with lower peak current for less sensitive customers, taxis and commercial fleets etc. - batteries depreciate even when they sit charged; a modular system will allow customers to keep (and pay rent for) a single or low capacity unit on a regular basis for city use and opt for full capacity when they really need the extra range.

prostoalex 8y ago
> each swap on the $20K pack will recover you $20-40 in depreciation Just the labor cost for the procedure is likely to greatly exceed the $20-40 estimate.
- icebraining 8y ago
  What labor? https://youtube.com/watch?v=H5V0vL3nnHY https://youtube.com/watch?v=H5V0vL3nnHY
- jdeibele 8y ago
  https://www.tesla.com/videos/battery-swap-event https://www.tesla.com/videos/battery-swap-event They replaced the battery in 90 seconds and it was completely automated. I really like the idea of having gas stations replaced with battery stations. Drive in to the "pump", put in your credit card, and let the automated system replace your battery. The space that was used for tanks could be devoted to charging infrastructure.
greglindahl 8y ago
I don't think that the data for Tesla batteries supports your 500-1000 cycles number.
outworlder 8y ago
> A battery pack has between 500 and 1000 charge cycles, I am very skeptical of that claim. This seems to hold true for laptop batteries. Not cars.