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Pliocene like climates by 2040 is easy for me to swallow, after all the climates then seem similar to modern climates just warmer. Eocene like climates by 2050
by vivekd 8y ago
Pliocene like climates by 2040 is easy for me to swallow, after all the climates then seem similar to modern climates just warmer. Eocene like climates by 2050 is a bit harder to swallow. It's hard to imagine there being a tropical environment in the Arctic that can support alligators and Tortoises in about 30 years time.
Going from Pliocene to Eocene climates in as little as 10 years time makes me think the model either assumed a huge increase in greenhouse gas production with India and China becoming superpowers or assumed a runaway greenhouse effect.
- seiferteric 8y agoIt could just be due to exponential changes being hard to reason about, tipping points and all that.
- maxander 8y agoSkimming the paper, it looks like they predict pliocene/eocene climates primarily for equatorial zones, with polar and high-latitude regions less effected. Eocene climates were also more even, with less of a difference between polar and equatorial temperatures. So alligators in the arctic is not strictly being predicted (at least not on that timescale, and that's not to say the predictions aren't scary in plenty of other ways.)
- Abishek_Muthian 8y ago> The Mid-Pliocene becomes the best climate analog slightly sooner, by 2030 CE, but the prevalence of Eocene-like climates accelerates after 2050CE, and future climates most commonly resemble the Eocene by 2140 CE Changes towards Eocene accelerates by 2050 according to the models & doesn't reflect Eocene until 2140 CE. Still the rate of change is incomprehensible IMO.