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There's nothing "impossible" about Boom's plans, commercial hypersonic flight has been done before decades ago and -- like with SpaceX -- tech advances since th

There's nothing "impossible" about Boom's plans, commercial hypersonic flight has been done before decades ago and -- like with SpaceX -- tech advances since then have made the job easier, not harder. It will still be extraordinary expensive and difficult, so I wish them luck.

ryanwaggoner 8y ago
No, it is effectively impossible for their planes to be legally flying by 2025, which is what they’re claiming. Edit: to be clear, I wish them luck too, but I think they’re being dishonest with their timelines. The YC / startup culture is the polar opposite of the FAA culture, which is basically “move slow and make sure nothing breaks, and if it does, carefully examine the situation and change the rules so it doesn’t break again” Here’s a good overview of the certification process: https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/aviation-international-news/2006-12-18/aircraft-certification-process https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/aviation-internation... Zero chance that some random startup is going to have these flying with passengers in 2025. They follow a very long line of startups that have burned through billions of dollars and almost all failed. I’d be surprised if there was more than one or two new airplane companies in the past three decades that have survived without bankruptcy, state subsidies, etc. And none of them were trying to do something nearly so technically challenging. All that said, I hope to eat a giant humble pie on my 2025 supersonic flight to London!
- ronilan 8y ago
  So, lets map the potential outcomes for commercial supersonic flight: 1. Boom (or some other startup) will deliver by 2025. 2. Boom (or some other startup) will deliver, but later. 3. Boeing (or Airbus) will deliver later. 4. No renewed supersonic commercial flights in our lifetime. I understand you say 1 is impossible. But is 2 out of the question? is 3 more likely that 4? is 3 more likely than 2? I don't know enough about Boom and supersonic flight, but I personally don't subscribe to the idea that tomorrow is entirely in the hands of today's established institutions.
  - ryanwaggoner 8y ago
    Most likely scenario is that they either outright fail and fold, or they “succeed” but only by mid-2030s and after at least one bankruptcy. This is a terrible investment.
    - FiveSquared25 8y ago
      They at least are trying and are inspired competition
  - wbl 8y ago
    There was supersonic scheduled commercial flight in my lifetime.
  - notahacker 8y ago
    There are commercial reasons for Boeing/Airbus to delay (3) even if the economics for supersonic flight were optimistic, though that didn't stop them rolling dice on the A380/787 as well as plenty of skunkworks projects. Trouble for Boom is that promising (1) might make raising the capital for (2) more difficult. And also the big risk they deliver (2) which is known to be possible and don't sell enough aircraft to recover their costs.

ryanwaggoner 8y ago

No, it is effectively impossible for their planes to be legally flying by 2025, which is what they’re claiming. Edit: to be clear, I wish them luck too, but I think they’re being dishonest with their timelines. The YC / startup culture is the polar opposite of the FAA culture, which is basically “move slow and make sure nothing breaks, and if it does, carefully examine the situation and change the rules so it doesn’t break again” Here’s a good overview of the certification process: https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/aviation-international-news/2006-12-18/aircraft-certification-process https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/aviation-internation... Zero chance that some random startup is going to have these flying with passengers in 2025. They follow a very long line of startups that have burned through billions of dollars and almost all failed. I’d be surprised if there was more than one or two new airplane companies in the past three decades that have survived without bankruptcy, state subsidies, etc. And none of them were trying to do something nearly so technically challenging. All that said, I hope to eat a giant humble pie on my 2025 supersonic flight to London!

ronilan 8y ago
So, lets map the potential outcomes for commercial supersonic flight: 1. Boom (or some other startup) will deliver by 2025. 2. Boom (or some other startup) will deliver, but later. 3. Boeing (or Airbus) will deliver later. 4. No renewed supersonic commercial flights in our lifetime. I understand you say 1 is impossible. But is 2 out of the question? is 3 more likely that 4? is 3 more likely than 2? I don't know enough about Boom and supersonic flight, but I personally don't subscribe to the idea that tomorrow is entirely in the hands of today's established institutions.
- ryanwaggoner 8y ago
  Most likely scenario is that they either outright fail and fold, or they “succeed” but only by mid-2030s and after at least one bankruptcy. This is a terrible investment.
  - FiveSquared25 8y ago
    They at least are trying and are inspired competition
- wbl 8y ago
  There was supersonic scheduled commercial flight in my lifetime.
- notahacker 8y ago
  There are commercial reasons for Boeing/Airbus to delay (3) even if the economics for supersonic flight were optimistic, though that didn't stop them rolling dice on the A380/787 as well as plenty of skunkworks projects. Trouble for Boom is that promising (1) might make raising the capital for (2) more difficult. And also the big risk they deliver (2) which is known to be possible and don't sell enough aircraft to recover their costs.